To wax Shakespearean, Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan has a serious conundrum in the northwest suburban 65th District: To fund or not to fund, that is the question.

In other words, does Madigan make the defeat of veteran Republican state Representative Rosemary Mulligan (R-65) in November a top priority? If so, he'll have to dump $500,000 into the race, making it a tier-one contest, and since Mulligan is unquestionably the most vociferous advocate of abortion rights in the Illinois House, does Madigan really want to infuriate Personal PAC and other pro-choice groups? If the speaker wants his daughter, Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, to be governor in 2010, the pro-choice vote will be critical in a Democratic primary. So why antagonize it?

"I'm one of his two top targets," Mulligan said of Madigan's quest to elect 72 Democrats in 2008, giving him a veto-proof 72-46 majority in the Illinois House, an important benchmark in his battle with Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich. The other targeted incumbent is Brent Hassert (R-85), of the Lockport-Romeoville-Bolingbrook area in Will County.

But, adds Mulligan, "my race is not about George and George," referring to the president and the former governor. "I'm an independent Republican with a record of accomplishment."

The 65th District, centered in Park Ridge and Des Plaines, is clearly trending Democratic, and 2008 portends to be a big Democratic year. George Ryan won it with 65.5 percent of the vote in 1998 and George Bush with 51 percent in 2000, but it went for John Kerry with 50.1 percent in 2004. In the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, Barack Obama barely lost to Park Ridge native Hillary Clinton in Maine Township, which includes the district, by 10,334-9,781. For decades, the district's liberal base has been growing.

Aurora Austriaco, a Park Ridge attorney born in the Philippines, is the Democratic candidate, and she, like Obama, trumpets herself as an agent of "change." Yet she has nary a bad word to say about Mulligan, other than a few platitudes about "doing a lot better," while admitting that Blagojevich "has done a bad job." Adds Austriaco: "I will not run a negative campaign."

Any contest featuring an incumbent is a referendum on the incumbent. To beat Mulligan, Austriaco must give voters a plausible reason to vote against her. Both candidates were unopposed in the Feb. 5 primary, and Austriaco got 10,641 votes to Mulligan's 5,358. Is that a harbinger for November? "The Democrats just had a higher turnout," Mulligan said.

Austriaco had cash on hand of $50,264 as of Dec. 31, compared to Mulligan's $36,786. That makes it a tier-three contest -- meaning an easy incumbent retention. If, however, Madigan weighs in with a half mil, enough to print and mail a dozen pieces to the district's 30,000 households during September and October, he needs some negativity to justify Mulligan's ouster. She can't be battered for her fiscally conservative voting record. She has no personal scandals or ethical lapses. But a relentless "George and George" and throw-out-all-the-Republicans strategy could work.

"I will be an independent Democrat," insists Austriaco, but if Madigan spends $500,000 to elect her, she will be a "Madigan Democrat," a faceless and inconsequential soldier in the House Democratic majority who will vote as the speaker dictates.

Mulligan, of Des Plaines, age 66, achieved iconic status by defeating anti-abortion Republican incumbent Penny Pullen in the 1992 Republican primary. Elected in 1976, Pullen, of Park Ridge, perpetually attempted to restrict abortion availability and AIDS funding. Pullen was deemed Illinois' most ineffectual legislator, and she was detested for her obtuseness and intransigence. Mulligan beat Pullen in the 1990 primary by 31 votes, but Pullen filed a legal challenge, and the result was overturned by the Illinois Supreme Court. Mulligan thumped Pullen by 1,224 votes in the 1992 rematch, and she easily repelled primary challenges by anti-abortion conservatives in 1996 and 1998. Even though she is toxic to about a third of the Republicans in her district, Mulligan keeps winning because she is a heroine to about a third of the Democrats.

Mulligan, like Pullen, is intransigent on abortion: To her, it's a woman's choice, with no parental or spousal exception, or for rape and incest. Mulligan sponsored legislation to mandate emergency room contraceptives to rape victims.

Democrats have tried many strategies, ideological and demographic, to beat her. Tom Cahill, a Des Plaines attorney, ran as a pro-life Democrat; he lost 18,982-14,539, with 43.4 percent of the vote, in 1996 and 9,987-14,380, with 40.1 percent, in 1998.

Since a conservative Des Plaines man couldn't beat Mulligan, Madigan decided to change the demographic and recruited a pro-choice Park Ridge female attorney, Mary Beth Tighe, in 2000. Tighe tried to be a Mulligan knock-off, or "Mulligan Lite," and she almost succeeded. She ran as a semi-unabashed liberal, supportive (like Mulligan) of gun control and gay rights but with a nuanced stance on abortion: She opposed partial-birth abortions and backed parental notification on minors' abortions.

Tighe tied herself closely to Al Gore, but she still lost to Mulligan by 17,448-16,119, with 48 percent of the vote, a margin of just 1,329 votes. Gore beat Bush 18,112-16,119 in the district.

Having flopped with Tighe, Madigan in 2002 decided to "out-lib" Mulligan, much as George Wallace in Alabama vowed in the 1960s that he would never be "out-segged" by any foe on segregation. He recruited Barbara Jones, a Park Ridge attorney who ran as a "me too" abortion foe, spent $55,600 (to Mulligan's $213,959), and lost 17,488-11,338, with 39.4 percent of the vote. Jones' positioning didn't much impress the pro-choice lobby, as Personal PAC contributed $26,009 to Mulligan.

In 2004 Mulligan crushed Democrat Mike Tashman 25,207-13,019, with 65.9 percent of the vote, and in 2006 she ran unopposed, getting 21,568 votes. In 2000 and 2004, both presidential election years, district turnout was over 35,000. To win, Austriaco needs to replicate Tighe's 2000 showing of 16,000 votes and convert 3,000 to 4,000 Mulligan voters to her candidacy.

Mulligan is the minority spokeswoman on the House Appropriations-Human Services Committee, which controls funding for all state social services. "She is good on human services issues," admits Austriaco.

The incumbent will also stress her record on women's issues. She sponsored a bill to require obstetric and gynecological treatment by all providers, even if that specialty is not in the group. She also sponsored a law to ban "drive-through" mastectomies, allowing overnight, not same-day, treatment. Another bill required emergency room contraceptives for rape victims.

"I am effective in Springfield on issues relevant to my district," argued Mulligan. "I provide good constituent service. I represent the majority opinion." Mulligan has voted against past Blagojevich budgets, against pension raids, and against budget "sweeps."

But, Mulligan admits, her future depends on the size of Madigan's majority and on whether Republican House leader Tom Cross, a close ally, runs for governor in 2010. "We have to have enough members to be relevant," Mulligan said, which means the Republicans must retain at least their current 51 seats. If they lose five seats in 2008, falling to less than 40 percent of the House membership, they would be irrelevant. If that occurred, "I would consider retiring," Mulligan said.

The 65th District includes all of Maine Township (64 precincts), plus small portions of Elk Grove (16 precincts), Norwood Park (nine precincts) and Leyden (five precincts) townships; it also includes six precincts in Chicago, in the area west of Cumberland Avenue and south of Higgins Avenue.

Austriaco, age 43, advocates more funding for state education and social services, but she flatly opposes any increase in local property taxes or the state income tax or any expansion of gambling. "There is so much waste in (state) government," she said, sounding like a Republican. She supports a constitutional amendment to allow the recall of state officials, but not judges.

"She's a three-time loser," sneered one local Republican, noting that in 2005 Austriaco finished last in an eight-candidate field for Maine Township trustee and that she failed to get appointed as a Park Ridge alderman and Park District commissioner when she applied. "She's a lightweight with no credibility."

The bottom line: To win, Austriaco needs to ostracize Mulligan and differentiate herself her. Other than party affiliation, they are two peas in a pod. Austriaco contends that the influx of new, younger and Democratic voters into the district will boost her, as they don't know Mulligan. But Mulligan has a core vote that, if diminishing, will still back her -- even if she is a Republican.

My prediction: Mulligan will win in 2008, and maybe in 2010, if she runs. But Austriaco, if she is persistent, unlike past losers Tighe and Jones, will win the seat when Mulligan quits. As for November, expect Madigan to dump minimal money into the 65th District, resulting in a 55-45 percent Mulligan win.