Hope springs eternal, as a number of ambitious politicians aspire to run for Illinois treasurer in 2006.

"I'm running if she doesn't," said state Representative Mike Boland (D-71), an 18-year legislator from the Quad Cities area, referring to the expectancy that Judy Baar Topinka, the three-term incumbent Republican state treasurer, will run for governor in 2006.

Presuming that Topinka opts for a run against Democratic Governor Rod Blagojeivch, which is likely, her post looms as the only down-ballot statewide constitutional office that will be hotly contested in 2006. The three incumbent Democrats, Secretary of State Jesse White, Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Comptroller Dan Hynes, are locks for re-nomination and re-election.

So, from a Republican perspective, the treasurer's post is the only viable option to break into statewide office, and to run for senator or governor in the future. And, from a Democratic perspective, it is a way to jump on the train for the governor's mansion, some time in the next decade.

Historically, the treasurer's job has been a springboard to another constitutional office, but rarely to the top office. Only twice in the past century has a treasurer gone directly to the governorship, and only once to the U.S. Senate.

Republican Bill Stratton served as treasurer in 1943-44 and 1951-52 and was elected governor in 1952. Treasurers were elected for 2-year terms and were ineligible to seek re-election until 1958, when the term was extended to 4 years, and in 1970 they were allowed to seek re-election.

The last treasurer to rise to the governorship before Stratton was Republican Len Small, who served as treasurer in 1905-06 and 1917-18 and who was indicted in 1921on charges of conspiracy and embezzlement of interest money, after having been elected governor in 1920. In those days the treasurer deposited state funds in whatever bank he chose, without any oversight. While treasurer, Small deposited state funds in a Kankakee bank, which then loaned the funds to a Chicago meatpackers union, which paid interest at 6 percent. Small paid the state so-called "call money" interest of 2 percent and pocketed the rest. At his trial, Small claimed that he paid the state as much interest as all preceding treasurers, and he was acquitted. He was re-elected governor in 1924.

Republican Bill Scott (1963-66) used his visibility as treasurer to get elected attorney general in 1968, and he was re-elected in 1972, 1976 and 1978. He lost a U.S. Senate primary in 1980 and was convicted of tax evasion shortly thereafter. Democrat Adlai Stevenson III (1967-70) won a U.S. Senate seat in 1970. Democrat Alan Dixon (1970-76), jumped to the Secretary of State's Office in 1976 and to the U.S. Senate in 1980, when Stevenson retired.

But flops abound. Of Illinois' 36 treasurers since 1900, most have faded into obscurity. Of recent incumbents, Democrat Jerry Cosentino (1979-82 and 1987-91) lost 1982 and 1990 bids for secretary of state. A Downstate state senator, Jim Donnewald, was elected treasurer in 1982, but he was beaten by Cosentino by 5,953 votes in the 1986 Democratic primary. Pat Quinn (1991-94), elected lieutenant governor in 2002, lost four statewide campaigns before winning his current post.

Topinka, from west suburban Berwyn, was in the right time and the right place in 1994, in a Republican landslide. She beat Democrat Nancy Drew Sheehan by 77,018 votes, getting 50.4 percent of the total cast, while Edgar was re-elected as governor by 914,468 votes, with 63.9 percent of the total. In 1998 Topinka was re-elected over Democrat Dan McLaughlin, south suburban Orland Park's mayor, by 62,279 votes (50.0 percent), while George Ryan won the governorship by 119,903 votes (51.1 percent).

Ryan retired in 2002, after 4 years of negative publicity about his alleged fund-raising misdeeds as secretary of state, and Democrats won five of six statewide offices. The only Republican winner was Topinka, who had built bridges to many white and black Democrats. Against Tom Dart, a well respected 10-year Southwest Side state representative from the 19th Ward, Topinka won by 396,965 votes, getting 54.8 percent of the total.

At present, all five Democratic state office holders are from Chicago, which is not surprising, given the fact that of the 1.3 million ballots cast in a nonpresidential year Democratic primary, roughly 800,000 come from Cook County, and approximately 525,000 of those ballots come from Chicago. The only way a Downstater can win a Democratic primary is if two or more Chicago or Cook County candidates fracture the Upstate vote.

That happened in 1998, when a conservative Downstater, U.S. Representative Glenn Poshard, who was pro-life, pro-gun rights, pro-death penalty and anti-gay rights, eked out a primary win by 66,949 votes, getting 357,342 votes and 37.6 percent of the total against three Chicagoans. Poshard got an astounding 71 percent of the Downstate vote.

And it nearly happened in 1986, when Cook County candidates Cosentino and Quinn both ran in the primary for treasurer against Downstate incumbent Donnewald, with Cosentino getting 241,006 votes (30.2 percent), to Donnewald's 235,053 (29.4 percent) and Quinn's 208,775 (26.2 percent).

Based on the Poshard precedent, when a Democrat clearly defines himself as a Downstater, appeals specifically to both Downstate and conservative voters, and has multiple Cook County foes, he wins. "I can win," said Boland, who seems to have cleared the Downstate field for treasurer. His likely 2006 foes include City Clerk Jim Laski, who is white, Cook County Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown, who is black, and 2002 loser Dart, who is now a top aide to county Sheriff Mike Sheahan.

Boland is a partial Poshard clone -- somewhat, but not vociferously, conservative. During his six terms in the House, Boland voted to ban partial-birth abortions and voted for limitations on welfare payments, but he voted against requiring parental consent for a minor's abortion, against caps on lawsuit damages and against charter schools in Chicago. Boland voted for the Human Rights Amendment, which banned discrimination in hiring based on sexual orientation, for McCormick Place and O'Hare expansion, for the governor's state budget transfers and the $10 billion pension fund bond issuance, for mandatory insurer coverage of contraceptives, for an increase in the minimum wage and for dockside gambling. Thus, he cannot be isolated as being too conservative.

All in all, Boland, age 62, a former public school teacher, is the kind of Dixon/Poshard Democrat that Republicans love to support -- providing that he gets nominated.

Laski, city clerk since 1995 and the 23rd Ward alderman from 1990 to 1995, is renowned for burning his political bridges. He is estranged from his mentor, Bill Lipinski, and is reviled by Daley. If the mayor makes a major effort, with a credible candidate, he could defeat Laski in the clerk's 2007 primary. So Laski is seeking a bailout option, namely, a run for statewide office. If he wins, he's out of Chicago politics, and Daley and his allies have plenty of incentive to back him so as to get rid of him.

Boland is already carving out his niche as the anti-Blagojevich contender. "If either Madigan or Hynes ran for governor, I would consider supporting them," said Boland. Thus, if Chicago Democrats want to vote against both Blagojevich and Laski, Boland's their guy. As for Blagojevich's 2002 promise to funnel state patronage jobs to Downstaters, "He's done nothing," Boland said.

But the key to Boland's hopes is a divided opposition. He needs Laski and Brown to split the Cook County vote. Black Democrat Roland Burris got 30.1 percent of the vote and 29.1 percent of the vote, respectively, in the 1998 and 2002 primaries. That's Brown's base vote, if she runs. If Brown and Laski split the 60 to 65 percent of the Democratic vote from Cook County, then Boland has a chance to win.

The early outlook: Laski has been mentioned as a potential future candidate for mayor. So, too, has Brown. According to sources close to Brown, she views the treasurer's office as a steppingstone to a cabinet post in a future national Democratic administration. Since her term as clerk runs through 2008, there is no risk in running for treasurer in 2006, while if she loses, she can still run for mayor in 2007 or for re-election in 2008. Dart is considered likely to run for sheriff if Sheahan vacates the sheriff's job and runs for Cook County Board president.

So Daley Democrats have a delicious opportunity: in a Boland-Brown-Laski primary for state treasurer, they can stick it to two of their irritants - by backing Boland. For 2006, the obscure Downstater Boland may be the right candidate in the right race at the right time.

As for the Republicans, an open treasurer's race is tantalizing, and potentially winnable. State Senator Dan Rutherford (R-53) of Pontiac has made it clear that he will run if Topinka retires. Rutherford, age 49, has served in the General Assembly since 1993.

If Blagojevich-Quinn, Madigan, White and Hynes all win in 2006, a Republican state treasurer would be credible contender for governor in 2010. And since White will retire in 2010 and Quinn, Hynes or Madigan likely will run for governor, a Democratic state treasurer would likely move up to secretary of state or attorney general.