Absence makes the heart grow fonder. And nothing makes a Chicago alderman fonder than the absence of opposition

As detailed in last week's column, the pro-Daley aldermen in the 33rd, 38th, 41st, 45th and 50th wards will face desultory opposition, if any, in 2007. But contested races are developing in the 30th and 36th wards, and quite possibly in the 32nd and 47th wards, where demographic trends have created a large and growing liberal base.

Here's an overview of those races:

36th Ward (Galewood, Montclare): Power oozes through the pores of Alderman Bill Banks, the City Council Zoning Committee chairman and the ward's pro-Daley Democratic committeeman. According to 2005 financial disclosures, Banks had cash on hand in his campaign and ward accounts of  $742,321. The bulk of that money comes not from his constituents, but from out-of-ward attorneys, real estate agents and developers. Bank's committee hears roughly 1,000 zoning cases annually.

"Bill Banks is beholden to special interests, not to the people who elected him," asserted Nicholas Sposato, a Chicago firefighter, community activist and former Banks' precinct captain who is running for alderman. "Voters want a change."

Is Sposato spitting into the proverbial wind?

Banks, age 56, has been the ward's committeeman since 1981 and an alderman since 1983. Given his money and his close ties to Daley, Banks has no problem fielding up to four workers in each of the ward's 55 precincts. He won the open aldermanic race in 1983 with 56 percent of the vote, was unopposed in 1987, got 71 percent of the vote in 1991, and was unopposed in 1995, 1999 and 2003. Was that a testament to Banks' enduring popularity? Or is he perceived as being so powerful that opposition scurries away?

Sposato intends to attack Banks for allowing "unrestrained community development" in the ward. According to a Chicago Sun-Times investigative report in November of 2005, Banks' nephew, zoning attorney James Banks, was successful in 29 of 32 36th Ward zoning cases which he handled before his uncle's committee that year, and James Banks' construction company, Sergio and Banks, built and sold one house and 78 condominiums in the 36th Ward in the past few years. Alderman Banks abstained from voting in all cases in which his nephew was the attorney -- about 20 percent of all cases, according to the Sun-Times.

The early outlook: The 36th Ward hugs the city's northwest edge, extending from North Avenue, between Harlem and Narragansett, north to Addison, west through Harlem-Irving to Cumberland, and north to the area southwest of Lawrence-Cumberland. The south area has a growing Hispanic population. To win, Sposato has to muddy up the incumbent. He has to give voters a reason to oust Banks. He likely will use the family favoritism issue, claiming that it redounds to the detriment of the 36th Ward.

Nevertheless, the Cubs have a better chance of getting into the World Series than Sposato has of beating Banks -- which means next to none.

32nd Ward (Wicker Park, Lakeview, Ukrainian Village): Alderman Ted Matlak, age 41, is a blue-collar kind of a guy in an upscale, gentrifying area. He is a protege of Democratic Committeeman Terry Gabinski, the alderman from 1969 to 1999, and he is a solid Daley supporter. That makes him vulnerable.

After being appointed alderman in 1999 to replace Gabinski, Matlak fended off a strong challenge from liberal feminist Lorna Brett, getting 54 percent of the vote. In 2003, against big-spending Jay Stone, the son of 50th Ward Alderman Berny Stone, Matlak won with 74 percent of the vote. For 2007 there surely will be a Howard Dean liberal Democrat in the race, as well as an anti-Daley contender (maybe the same person) and perhaps a rich self-funder. Matlak is a Machine Democrat in a ward where that's a dirty word.

But Matlak's most formidable foe would be state Representative John Fritchey (D-11), age 42, an ambitious Democrat who makes no secret of his desire to run for state attorney general in 2010, when incumbent Lisa Madigan is expected to run for governor; if he wins that post, Fritchey aspires to be governor in the next decade.

Back in late 2003, after Gabinski announced his retirement as committeeman and endorsed Matlak, Fritchey jumped into the race. That caused major heartburn among area Democrats, and Alderman Dick Mell eventually brokered a deal whereby Gabinski ran again and Matlak and Fritchey got out.

Fritchey, an articulate, upscale attorney, would have great appeal against Matlak, and he likely would win. But there is a downside. Fritchey is James Banks' brother-in-law, and he does a lot of zoning work himself before the Zoning Committee. Fritchey got Rod Blagojevich's Illinois House seat in 1996 as part of a deal between Mell, Blagojevich's father-in-law, and Bill Banks, whereby Banks agreed to support Blagojevich for Congress in exchange for Fritchey becoming state representative. If Fritchey challenges Matlak, and if the news media and Matlak begin poking into Fritchey's zoning activities, Fritchey's squeaky-clean image could be sullied.

The outlook: Fritchey won't run. And Matlak will win again, with 60 percent of the vote, proving that providing efficient ward services, even in a liberal, upscale area, is more important than prattling about foreign policy issues, slavery reparations or Daley Administration corruption.

35th Ward (Logan Square): Vilma Colom is understandably perplexed. In Chicago Hispanic politics, yesterday's enemies can be today's allies. Colom, a protege of Mell and bolstered by an army of Mell and Hispanic Democratic Organization precinct workers, won the newly created Hispanic-majority 35th Ward seat in 1995 with 59 percent of the vote, and she was re-elected in 1999 with 61 percent. She was elected ward Democratic committeeman in the heavily Puerto Rican area in 1996, and she was re-elected in 2000.

But in 2003, despite the energetic backing of Mell and the HDO, Colom was upset for alderman by Rey Colon, who got only 39 percent of the vote 4 years earlier. Colon attacked Colom as a "pawn of Mell and the developers" and scored an upset win, taking 58 percent of the vote. But soon after winning, Colon became an apostata -- a turncoat. He has been a solid pro-Daley vote, and now he is backed by the HDO.

In 2004 Colom did a reality check and didn't bother to run for re-election as committeeman, letting Colon win unopposed.

Now Colom is back, and she is positioning herself as a pro-Daley "independent." The outlook: Colon, age 45, will be backed by the HDO, Daley and Mell. Colom apparently is not allying herself with either Luis Gutierrez or Jesse Jackson Jr., both potential mayoral candidates. She understands that being the "Jesse candidate" is not advantageous among Hispanics, who usually prefer a white nominee to a black nominee. Colon is the early favorite.

47th Ward (Ravenswood): Gene Schulter, age 58, was long the caricature of the meek, mild, loyal, do-what-you're-told Chicago alderman. Back in 1975, when Schulter was just 27, powerhouse 47th Ward Democratic Committeeman Ed Kelly plucked him from obscurity and ran him for alderman. In a major upset, Schulter beat 28-year Republican incumbent John Hoellen by 2,300 votes, getting 57 percent of the votes cast.

Kelly was the Chicago Park District superintendent from 1973 to 1986, and at that time he could assemble and deploy hundreds of precinct workers. Schulter was unopposed in 1979 and 1983, but he broke with Kelly in 1987. Harold Washington was seeking a second term as mayor that year, and Schulter had been part of the "Vrdolyak 29." Kelly had been fired by Washington, and he backed Tom Hynes for mayor in the Democratic primary. Schulter stunned all by endorsing Washington and moving out of Kelly's office. In 1987 Ed Vrdolyak carried the 47th Ward (after Hynes' withdrawal and with Kelly's support) with 68 percent of the vote, and Schulter was re-elected with 78 percent.

Schulter was unopposed in 1991, got 82 percent of the vote in 1995, and was unopposed in 1999. In 2000, after more than a decade of estrangement, Schulter ran against Kelly for committeeman, losing by just 80 votes. In 2003 Kelly attempted to gain revenge, backing Jack Lydon for alderman. Schulter crushed him 7,714-4,319, with 64 percent of the vote. Schulter then announced for committeeman in 2004, but Kelly, then age 80, bowed out of the race.

Now Schulter is the undisputed boss of a ward in which the voter demographic is rapidly trending liberal. Barack Obama got 60.4 percent of the vote in the 2004 primary, and John Kerry crushed George Bush 21,515-5,818, getting 78.7 percent of the vote. Given this sizable liberal base, Schulter needs to worry about an anti-Daley "reformer" candidate.

Younger, liberal voters may be receptive to Jackson's candidacy, and Schulter, who has been a solid pro-Daley alderman and who waited three decades to be committeeman, may find himself hard-pressed by a pro-Jackson "outsider." The identity of that candidate is unknown, but there will be one.

One possible contender is Bob Hoellen, a Ravenswood attorney and the son of the former alderman. The outlook: Schulter is exactly the kind of alderman who could lose if there's an anti-Daley, pro-change wave in 2007. He should be very, very worried.