It's spring training time for mayoral and aldermanic aspirants in the 2007 municipal election, but the political diamonds are empty.

 With the Daley Administration mired in scandal, it seems logical that the city's electorate would be ready for change. However, with the election 11 months away and the start of the nominating petition circulation period just 5 months away, Northwest Side aldermanic challengers are submerging, not surfacing. It takes 250 valid signatures on petitions to run for alderman; it also takes upwards of $50,000 and an army of precinct workers for a challenger to upset an incumbent.

From a historical perspective, aldermen, who are paid $98,000, are difficult to beat. It only happens when there is:

(1) A split in the ward Democratic organization, wherein the alderman and Democratic committeeman are feuding and the committeeman is trying to dump the alderman.

(2) A neighborhood issue resonates and causes a negative community uprising against the alderman. A good example is Helen Shiller's Uptown 46th Ward, where the developers are pitted against the renters.

(3) General fatigue with the incumbent, who over time has not become a beloved and iconic figure, but has begun to irritate voters.

(4) Indictment or scandal. Or

(5) the emergence of a rich, self-funding outsider.

 None of these conditions are yet apparent on the Northwest Side. What is apparent is that Frank Coconate, the chairman of the Northwest Side Democratic Organization who was fired from his city job, who currently is an organizer with the Service Employees International Union, and who is publicly backing U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson, Jr. for mayor in 2007, is trying to find some warm aldermanic bodies to run on an anti-Daley platform in tandem with Jackson. He has met with no success.

 Here's an early overview of the races:

 45th Ward: It seems like every prospective challenger to Alderman Pat Levar has an exit strategy, namely, don't run. Levar, age 55, is a close ally of 45th Ward Democratic Committeeman Tom Lyons, who also is the county Democratic chairman. He was first elected alderman in 1987 with 54.5 percent of the vote, and he was re-elected in 1991 (82 percent), 1995 (68.6 percent), 1999 (unopposed) and 2003 (65 percent). That doesn't indicate any vulnerability.

 Commercial and residential redevelopment, especially zoning changes for condominiums and townhouses, is an issue. "We're the next Wicker Park," Levar said. But community activists are reticent to take on Levar. Pete Conway, the former president of the Jefferson Park Neighborhood Association who lost to Levar in 2003, getting 33 percent of the vote, isn't running. Bob Bank, an association board member and Levar critic, said he "won't jump in" until he has the financing. Bank ran against Lyons for committeeman in 2004 and got 23 percent of the vote. Ron Ernst, also an association board member, will not run, stating that "the system is rigged."

From the Portage Park area, neither Portage Park Neighborhood Association president Gerard Staniszewski nor former president Adrien O'Brien is interested. The only announced candidate is police officer Dave Haynes, the Republican ward committeeman.

 The outlook: The suspense is not whether Levar will be re-elected, but rather by how much and whether he will serve his full term. "I enjoy what I'm doing," Levar said, but rumors abound that his son, Pat Jr., will be his successor. Pat Levar Jr. is a supervisor of facility management for the Chicago Park District. "He grew up in politics," said the alderman of his son. "He'd be a great alderman." The expectation is that Levar, presuming Rich Daley is still mayor, will resign some time during his 2007-11 term and have his son appointed to the seat. 

 33rd Ward: Alderman Dick Mell should be on the top of the world. His son-in-law is the governor, and Mell helped put him there. But there's no gratitude emanating from Rod Blagojevich, and Mell is embarrassed and infuriated that he and his fellow city Democrats have been ignored and attacked by the governor.

Mell, age 68, was first elected alderman in 1975, and he has never been seriously challenged. He got 77 percent of the vote in 1987 and 82 percent in 1991, was unopposed in 1995, and got 90 percent in 1999 and 86 percent in 2003. "He's absolutely running again," said Chuck Lomanto, Mell's chief of staff, whom Mell has long groomed as his successor. Like Levar, Mell could resign after 2007 and have the mayor appoint Lomanto.

 The outlook: Mell will win in 2007.

 38th Ward: Another Cullerton? Incumbent Tom Allen, age 54, is popular and said that he "expects to run for another term." But he may run for judge soon thereafter, opening the seat. If that occurs, his successor likely would be Patty Jo Cullerton, the ward's Democratic committeeman.

 Eddie Cullerton was first elected an alderman in 1871, and he served until 1919. The 38th Ward was created in 1931, and a member of the "Cullerton Clan" has held the seat for 71 of the past 75 years. P.J. Cullerton was alderman from 1935 to 1958, county assessor from 1958 to 1974 and committeeman from 1932 to 1981. His brother Willie was alderman from 1959 to 1973. When he died in 1973, his nephew, Tom Cullerton, was elected alderman, and he became committeeman in 1981. Allen was appointed as alderman when Cullerton died in 1993. Allen's wife's sister is married to Tim Cullerton, who is Tom Cullerton's son; Patty Jo Cullerton is his sister. Allen is deemed part of the "Cullerton Clan," if only by marriage.

 Allen, age 54, an attorney, was elected with 65 percent of the vote in 1995, was unopposed in 1999, and got 89 percent of the vote in 2003. He has worked to enforce zoning laws, especially against so-called "rooming house" owners who rent space to dozens of immigrants. He's now opposing developers who want to upzone property or who buy oversize lots and knock down the existing house to build two. Allen said that he's "open minded" about running for judge. He lives in the 10th Judicial Subcircuit, and there will be a vacancy in 2008 created in December by Aurie Pucinski's resignation after she won a countywide judgeship.

The likelihood of running for alderman is "zero to none," said Patty Jo Cullerton, who just retired, at age 51, from her county job after 30 years. She had been a $90,000-a-year executive assistant to the general superintendent of the Cook County Forest Preserve District; before that she worked for the assessor's office. But if Allen goes on the bench, his successor is either Patty Jo Cullerton or no Cullerton.

 The outlook: Allen will win easily in 2007, and he will get the judgeship if he wants it. If that occurs, there will be another Cullerton -- Patty Jo -- in the City Council.

 50th Ward: Like Mark Twain's famous comment, rumors of the political demise of 78-year-old Alderman Berny Stone are exaggerated. "I'm absolutely, positively running again," barked Stone. "I will serve out my full term. I will not resign." Rumors have long abounded that Stone will some day pass his seat to his daughter, Alana, who is his chief of staff.

Stone was first elected alderman in 1973. He had a tough challenge from liberal Hank Rubin in 1991, winning with 56 percent of the vote, and he got 56.9 percent in 1995, was unopposed in 1999, and got 76 percent in 2003.

 The outlook: Stone is a much beloved icon, and he will win as long as he runs. But when he is gone, Alana Stone is not assured his seat.

 41st Ward: Alderman Brian Doherty is the council's only Republican, but that doesn't mean he is a foe of Daley. On every issue except tax hikes and slavery reparations, Doherty is part of the Daley majority.

Doherty's ward is crammed with city and county workers, including many police officers and firefighters. But not a one is talking about a bid to oust Doherty. After upsetting longtime incumbent Roman Pucinski with 54.1 percent of the vote in the 1991 runoff, Doherty was re-elected with 76 percent in 1995, 75 percent in 1999 and 73 percent in 2003. That's not indicative of any voter fatigue.

 Doherty, age 48, notes that his zoning advisory board closely monitors ward development, that he has "opposed more city tax hikes than any other alderman," and that his office provides "prompt" city services.

 Another key to Doherty's success has been the collapse of the Democratic organization in the ward. Former state representative Ralph Capparelli, who lost an incumbent-versus-incumbent race in the 20th Illinois House District to Doherty ally Mike McAuliffe in 2004, has been the ward committeeman since 1992, when he beat Pucinski. Of the ward's 57 precincts, fewer than a dozen have Democratic captains.

Coconate is poised to run, if only because he can find nobody else. Being allied with Jackson is not helpful in the predominantly white, heavily Irish 41st Ward. In the 1988 Democratic presidential primary, Jesse Jackson Sr. got 389 votes in the 41st Ward, and in the 1992 U.S. Senate primary, Carol Moseley Braun got 3,705 votes.

 The outlook: Doherty will win again.

Next week: An analysis of more area aldermanic contests.