From the perspective of Judy Baar Topinka, the more the merrier: The more candidates that run, the better are her prospects of winning the 2006 Republican primary for governor. Conversely, if she has only one opponent, she could lose.

Topinka, Illinois’ three-term state Treasurer, is the clear early frontrunner in a field that may contain as many as eight credible aspirants – or as few as three -- all of whom have some semblance of a geographic or ideological base, or an ample campaign treasury. Topinka is the only proven statewide winner, the only Republican currently holding statewide office, and the only woman in the race. But she has been part of the Springfield political culture for 25 years, having first been elected to the legislature in 1980. She can’t run as an “agent of change,” nor can she claim to be a reformer.

So how does she package herself? More competent. More mature. More conciliatory. Able to work with Democrats. That sounds a lot like George Ryan’s theme in 1998…and not very inspirational.

Several of her prospective opponents have been around the proverbial block before, and they’re known in Republican circles as the Recyclable Four:

Dairy millionaire Jim Oberweis lost bids for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senator in 2002 and 2004, finishing second in both contests (with 31.5 and 23.5 percent, respectively); former state senator Pat O’Malley lost a bid for the Republican nomination for governor in 2002, finishing second (with 28.4 percent); State Senator Steve Rauschenberger lost a primary bid for U.S. Senate in 2004, finishing third (with 20 percent); and DuPage County State’s Attorney Joe Birkett, who won his 2002 primary for state attorney general with 64.1 percent, lost the election to Democrat Lisa Madigan.

Also exploring gubernatorial campaigns are Ron Gidwitz, a millionaire businessman and former chairman of the state Board of Education; U.S. Representative Ray LaHood (R-18), from Peoria; and State Senator Bill Brady, from Bloomington.

The early expectation is that LaHood and Gidwitz, since they share the same moderate/Establishment base as Topinka, won’t run, now that she has apparently committed herself to the contest. And that Brady, who is in mid-term, is simply running to establish some name identification in 2005 so that he can switch to another race in 2006, such as treasurer or lieutenant governor. “I’m in the (governor’s) race to stay,” insisted Brady, who says Republican voters want a fresh face.

Gidwitz could also downsize to a down-ballot office, or could opt to be Topinka’s finance committee chairman. Rauschenberger’s senate seat is up in 2006, so a statewide race is an up-or-out proposition, but he is reported to be exploring a treasurer’s bid. O’Malley, who carries the baggage of refusing to endorse the party’s gubernatorial nominee in 2002, could switch to lieutenant governor – a race he would surely win.

In handicapping the contest, several political realities must be acknowledged:

First, in Illinois primaries for governor, Republican voters invariably embrace electability over ideology. In U.S. Senate primaries, it’s often the reverse.

That’s why not-very-conservative, but eminently electable Republicans like Jim Thompson, Jim Edgar, and George Ryan won for governor, but their kindred spirits, Bob Kustra and Loleta Didrickson, lost Senate primaries in 1996 and 1998, respectively.

In the benchmark 2002 primary, the party establishment choice was then-Attorney General Jim Ryan, a strong conservative. But Ryan was squeezed in the primary, pounded from the left for his anti-abortion stance by Corrine Wood (who was George Ryan’s lieutenant governor), and blasted on the right as insufficiently aggressive in ferreting out state corruption by Pat O’Malley (who was boisterously anti-abortion). Ryan won with 44.7 percent (410,074 votes), to O’Malley’s 28.4 percent (260,860) and Wood’s 26.9 percent (246,825). But, hobbled by his primary wounds, Ryan went on to lose to Rod Blagojevich by 252,080 votes, getting 45.1 percent of the vote.

For 2006, Topinka, as the party Establishment candidate, stands to inherit the bulk of the Ryan vote, and a good chunk of the Wood vote, much of which was cast by women. That gives Topinka a solid 45 percent. Oberweis and O’Malley would be dividing the 28 percent-plus social conservative vote. If LaHood and/or Gidwitz run, they will be draining votes from Topinka; if Rauschenberger or Brady run, they’ll divert more votes from Topinka than from Oberweis/O’Malley.

At this early date, it’s hard to envision Topinka getting less than 33 percent of the vote with LaHood and Gidwitz in the race, or getting less than 45 percent without them. But, if Oberweis can coax O’Malley out of the race, setting up a one-on-one with Topinka, and then run as the change-in-Springfield candidate, he could conceivably win.

Second, while the vast majority of Republicans are fiscally conservative, a smaller number are socially conservative, which means that they are focused on such issues as abortion rights, gay rights, immigration restrictions, and school vouchers. In any given primary, social conservatives comprise up to a third of the vote.

It should be remembered that Pat Buchanan got 22.5 percent of the vote in the 1992 Illinois presidential primary, against a sitting president; and he got 22.8 percent in 1996. That’s the hardcore social-issue conservative base. In governor’s primaries in 1990, 1994, 1998 and 2002, social conservatives received, respectively, 33.5, 24.9, 13.9 and 28.4 percent.

In senate contests, however, some candidates have built a coalition of social and fiscal conservatives, rural voters, and gun owners, and upset the Establishment choice. Al Salvi won with 47.6 percent in 1996, and Peter Fitzgerald won with 51.9 percent in 1998. In 2004, Jack Ryan, the best-financed, most moderate candidate, won with 35.5 percent, while staunch conservatives Oberweis, Rauschenberger and Andy McKenna finished second, third and fourth, with a total of 58.2 percent.   Oberweis thinks that, with a clear field, he can duplicate in 2006 the Salvi and Fitzgerald upsets.

And third, there is no blockbuster issue going into 2006. Democratic Governor Blagojevich has kept his 2002 campaign promise, and has not raised either the state income or sales tax – but has raised hundreds of state fees. State spending has increased from $52.8 billion in fiscal 2003, Ryan’s last budget, to $54 billion for fiscal 2005, Blagojevich’s second budget. The governor had to resort to creative financing to close a $5 billion revenue shortfall in 2004, and a $2.3 billion shortfall in 2005.Another crisis is imminent for fiscal 2006, as deficient revenues will require some additional creativity to close a projected $2 billion hole.

But, while Republican governors in Indiana, Arkansas, Georgia and Ohio raised taxes, as did Democrats in Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, Blagojevich didn’t. And, lest Republicans criticize his ingenuity, Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzennegger has copied many of Blagojevich’s stratagems in California.

Historically, fiscal crises are solved in one of two ways: Either increase taxes, as Republican Governor Dick Ogilvie did in 1969, and as Thompson did twice and Edgar once.

Or cut spending and services, as Republican governors recently did in Florida and Mississippi, and Democrats did in Tennessee and North Carolina. Blagojevich has done neither, embarking on a Third Way, which involves borrowing and budgetary gimmicks. But the point is this: Do voters really care how he avoided a tax hike? They’re just glad that he did.              

How can Republicans criticize the methodology, but not the result? Oberweis wants to cut spending by four percent. Topinka has nit-picked some of the governor’s fiscal choices, and has refused to transfer money out of special state funds into the general revenue fund, but she has not outlined what she would have done differently were she governor. In fact, the Illinois Chamber of Commerce, which successfully sued to rescind various business fee hikes, has been more outspokenly anti-Blagojevich than the state’s Republican leadership.

Spending under Blagojevich has risen $1.2 billion in two fiscal years, whereas it rose by $15.4 billion during Ryan’s four years, and by $11.4 billion during Edgar’s eight years.

Topinka, who said that Illinois is “coming apart at the seams” under Blagojevich, remains largely undefined as a candidate and officeholder – much like past losers Kustra and Didrickson. She is neither a crusader for fiscal restraint, nor an advocate of budgetary or structural reform. She is hoping that being the “anti-Blagojevich” alternative, along with being a perceived winner, is enough. A recent American Viewpoint, taken March 6-8, showed that only 40 percent thought Blagojevich “deserved re-election,” 45 percent “disapproved” of the governor’s job performance, and 47 percent wanted a “new person” as governor. In a head-to-head matchup, Blagojevich topped Topinka 45-42 percent.

Given the fact that Blagojevich raised and spent $25 million to win in 2002, and has been campaigning non-stop since 2001, those numbers aren’t auspicious. But despite Blagojevich’s alleged unpopularity, Topinka still trails.

The governor has over $10 million in the bank, and will raise another $20 million through 2006. His strategy is to make the election a referendum on himself – namely: has he been a competent governor? The Republican strategy is to make the election a choice – namely: between an arrogant, confrontational, seemingly juvenile incumbent versus a mature, conciliatory Republican alternative. However, if that Republican is flawed, or has issue stances that are out of the mainstream, then Blagojevich can focus on demonizing the Republican, rather than on defending his record.

Oberweis spent over $2.5 million in the 2004 Senate primary, most of which was his own money. Normally, politicians face the Two-and-Out Rule: an initial loss can be deemed a missed opportunity, and a second race merited; but a second loss is a conclusive voter verdict. But a lot of Republicans like his anti-immigration platform, and don’t deem him a retread. “I will spend what it takes” to win in 2006, said Oberweis.

The Republican to watch is Brady: If he stays in the race, runs a positive campaign, and lets Oberweis and Topinka pound each other, voters may decide that a new face is the way to win.

My prediction: Topinka’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep. In a multi-candidate primary, she will win easily. But if Oberweis narrows it to a one-on-one, he could beat her – which means Blagojevich would get his dream opponent, and a second term.