An underwhelming primary turnout resulted in victories for two underperforming gubernatorial candidates: incumbent Democrat Rod Blagojevich and Republican challenger Judy Baar Topinka.

And the November result could very well be countercyclical. In other words, despite an evolving national political environment that favors the Democrats, Blagojevich could do the improbable and lose to a Republican in a state that John Kerry won by 545,604 votes in 2004.

Of the two victors, Blagojevich's underperformance is the more noteworthy. In the 2002 Democratic governor's primary, when turnout was 1,252,516, Blagojevich finished first in a three-candidate field with 457,197 votes, getting 36.5 percent of the votes cast. According to the latest unofficial 2006 returns, in a turnout of 849,485, Blagojevich finished first in a two-candidate field with 595,867 votes (70.1 percent).

In 2002 Blagojevich faced two credible foes in Paul Vallas and Roland Burris, and he triumphed by just 25,469 votes. In 2006, as the incumbent who was publicly backed by every Democratic county, township and ward organization in Illinois, Blagojevich faced former alderman Ed Eisendrath, who ran an inept and underfunded campaign. He beat him by 342,249 votes, but the numbers inside the numbers tell a very ominous story.

First, despite raising more than $14 million during the 2005-06 period up to March 21 and spending about $5 million, Blagojevich got only 138,000 more votes in 2006 than he did in 2002. Eisendrath, with 253,618 votes, got 541,701 fewer votes than the combined Burris-Vallas vote of 795,319, but the primary turnout was 403,031 less than in 2002.

The upside for the governor is that he got more than 70 percent of the vote, but the downside is that just under a third of all Democrats voted against him and that more than 400,000 Democrats were so unenthralled by their choices that they didn't vote. Many voters perceive Blagojevich as shallow, opportunistic and untrustworthy. But many active Democrats -- especially party functionaries and precinct workers -- perceive him as an ingrate whose self-serving rejection of the Democratic establishment and perpetual gamesmanship merit zero support. And in November, they'll deliver zip for him.

Second, outside of Chicago, where Eisendrath was unknown and had minimal appeal, the governor's victory margins were lackluster. According to unofficial figures in the Collar Counties, Eisendrath got 36 percent of the vote in DuPage County, 38 percent in Lake and McHenry counties, 34 percent in Will County and 32 percent in Kane County. He got 33.5 percent of the vote in the 96 Downstate counties.

A lot of committed Democrats, the kind who make it a point to vote in their party's primary, cast an anybody-but-Blagojevich vote on March 21. Since Blagojevich won the governorship by 252,080 votes in 2002, if even half of Eisendrath's 253,618 voters opt for Topinka, Blagojevich is in trouble.

And third, it was Cook County and Chicago that salvaged the governor. Blagojevich got 65 percent of the suburban vote, topping Eisendrath 122,772-66,163, and he got 66.5 percent of the Chicago vote, topping Eisendrath 240,786-66,513. Yet the numbers inside the numbers are troubling.

In 2002 the Chicago turnout was 475,322, and Blagojevich got 135,682 votes. In 2006 the turnout was an unofficial 307,299, and Blagojevich got 240,786 votes. His vote was up by more than 100,000, but turnout was down by more than 160,000. Roland Burris won almost 90 percent of the black vote in 2002, and Blagojevich did likewise this year, but Eisendrath got a third of the vote in the predominantly white wards.

In the 2002 election, against Republican Jim Ryan, Blagojevich carried Chicago's 20 black-majority wards by 271,303-16,559. He also won the black-majority suburban townships of Proviso, Rich, Bloom and Calumet by 71,997-19,803. That's a margin of 306,938 votes. Black voters in Cook County provided Blagojevich with 54,858 more votes than his statewide 252,080-vote victory margin.

 Hence, the prospective gubernatorial bid of state Senator James Meeks (D-15) would have a huge impact. Meeks wants to spend an additional $6 billion over 4 years on education, which would require tax increases. Blagojevich, who pledged no tax hike in 2002, reiterated that pledge for his next term.

Blagojevich cannot get re-elected without near-unanimous black backing. To run, Meeks, an anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage minister from Salem Baptist Church, must get 25,000 nominating petition signatures for a full slate of state candidates by June 26. Those who voted in the March primary or who signed nominating petitions last year cannot sign his petitions.

What is the "base" African-American vote in Illinois? According to the 2000 census, the state's population is 12,419,293, of which blacks number 1,856,152 (14.9 percent). The black statewide vote falls between two parameters: Jesse Jackson got 484,233 votes in the 1988 Democratic presidential primary, while Carol Moseley Braun got 53,249 votes in the 2004 primary. If Meeks runs, he'll surely get more than 200,000 votes -- which means Blagojevich loses.

But Topinka did not come out of her primary unscathed.

Despite being state treasurer for 12 years, having won three statewide elections, having humongous name identification, and being the Republican whom polls showed to have the best chance to beat Blagojevich, Topinka limped to victory with 38 percent of the vote. She got an unofficial 272,414 votes, topping Jim Oberweis (228,073) by 44,341 votes. Bill Brady got 133,500 votes (18.6 percent), and Ron Gidwitz got 77,382 votes (10.8 percent).

The upside, simply, is that she won. Her opponents pounded her as a liberal and as the lineal descendant of George Ryan, but she's now the Blagojevich alternative. Elections are normally referendums on the incumbent, so the only way that Blagojevich can win is to go negative on Topinka and attempt to hang the "insider," "corruption" or "Ryan Republican" wreath about her neck. The governor will spend at least $20 million to do the deed.

Oberweis ran as the anti-tax hike, anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, anti-gun control, anti-immigration candidate. His television and radio ads and his direct mail tried to eviscerate Topinka as liberal and corrupt. Yet she won.

According to unofficial returns, Oberweis topped Topinka narrowly in Lake County (winning by 1,410 votes), McHenry County (winning by 1,782 votes) and Kane County (winning by 3,832 votes). He also won Boone, Kendall and Grundy countries, but he flopped elsewhere. Topinka beat Oberweis by 3,065 votes in Chicago, by 12,706 votes in suburban Cook County and, most critically, by 11,462 votes in DuPage County, where her lieutenant governor running mate, Joe Birkett, is the state's attorney. Downstate, where Oberweis' social conservative message should have resonated, he lost to Topinka by 20,939 votes. Brady had 94,342 votes, to 111,153 for Topinka and 90,219 for Oberweis.

In retrospect, Topinka's victory is largely attributable to one decision: partnering with Birkett, who lost the 2002 attorney general's race to Lisa Madigan by 114,946 votes, with 47.1 percent of the total. Had Birkett run for governor, he would surely have gotten 150,000 votes and tipped the outcome to Oberweis.

Oberweis' supporters whine that he lost because Brady, a Downstate state senator, split the conservative, anti-Topinka vote. But, quite simply, Oberweis was unelectable. He got 259,515 primary votes (31.5 percent of the total) in 2002, 155,794 votes (23.5 percent) in 2004 and 228,073 (31.8 percent) in 2006. Super conservative Pat Buchanan got 186,915 votes (22.5 percent) in the 1992 state presidential primary and 186,177 votes (22.7 percent) in 1996. Oberweis is a Pat Buchanan Republican, and Republican voters want a winner, not an embarrassment.

There are 36 governors up for election this year, of whom 22 are Republicans and 14 are Democrats. Of the 22 Republicans, 10 states (New York, Massachusetts, Ohio, Maryland, Alaska, California, Arkansas, Colorado, Minnesota and Nevada) could flip to the Democrats. Of the 14 Democrats, six states (Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan) could flip to the Republicans. Right now, Illinois ranks with Iowa and Wisconsin as a prime turnover.

The November outlook: The Blagojevich's "re-elect" numbers are well under 50 percent in most polls, so his path to victory entails trashing Topinka. That worked for embattled California Governor Gray Davis in 2002; instead of defending his questionable record, he raised $68 million and attacked his Republican foe as an extremist.

Luckily for the Republicans, Topinka can't be isolated as some kind of nut. In fact, being positioned as Illinois' first female governor, she should get at least 200,000 votes from women who usually vote Democratic.

But Blagojevich is moving his female-friendly agenda into high gear. He will tout his support of abortion rights and economic/health issues such as raising the minimum wage, expanding kids' health coverage and preschool availability, college tuition waivers and providing more mammograms.

The bottom line: The clarion call of "reform" will not be enough to unseat Blagojevich. The governor will be promising everything to everybody, with major spending increases, but without raising taxes. He will do and spend whatever it takes to win. Topinka's goal is to indelibly attach three words to her foe: inept, untrustworthy and corrupt.

In a race between "The Kid," "The Brat" and "The Preacher," make Topinka a definite favorite. But if Meeks stays out, Blagojevich is favored.