As Chicagoans mark the 50th anniversary of the election of Richard J. Daley as mayor, the 16th anniversary of the election of Richard M. Daley as mayor, and the 74th anniversary of the creation of the Chicago Democratic Machine, let’s not forget the anniversary of 1975.

To those with diminished memories, or to those who weren’t born 30 years ago, or who didn’t then live in Chicago, 1975 was the year in which the First Daley and his Machine triumphed over incredible adversity.

During this Time of Troubles, the 72-year old mayor was under relentless assault from multiple sources. Corruption was at epidemic levels. The U.S. Attorney, Jim Thompson, was indicting and convicting city officials with rapidity; included in that crowd was the mayor’s press secretary, the city council’s finance chairman, and a half-dozen aldermen. City redevelopment was at a standstill. Daley’s plans for the Crosstown Expressway, a third airport, and a new sports stadium were going nowhere. The renowned Master Builder wasn’t building. Crime was rising. Education performance was declining. And the media were lamenting Daley’s lack of energy and imagination.

There was a smell of decay in the air. The sense of optimism about the city’s future, and the sense of permanance about the reign of Daley, was rapidly eroding. Political dissent was escalating. Blacks were growing restive about such issues as police brutality. Liberal independents, who had unseated the mayor’s delegation at the 1972 Democratic convention, and who were being encouraged by then-Governor Dan Walker, a Daley nemesis, appeared to be ascendant.

Bill Singer, the boisterous Lakefront alderman, was running a “reform” mayoral bid; he had raised and spent $700,000, campaigned vigorously for 16 months, and deployed 2,300 precincts volunteers throughout the city. U.S. Representative Ralph Metcalfe, the city’s most prominent black politician and onetime Daley ally, was critical of alleged police “racism” and brutality; he endorsed Singer. Also running for mayor in 1975 was former county State’s Attorney Ed Hanrahan, who had great appeal in white ethnic wards, as well as Dick Newhouse, a state senator and first-ever black candidate for mayor.

Beset by adversity and adversaries, 1975 loomed as the mayor’s Waterloo. The Democrats had swept the 1974 congressional elections on an it’s-time-for-a-change theme. The economy was in a shambles, with virulent inflation; the housing construction industry was comatose, and the labor unions were complaining about a lack of jobs. Surely, Chicago was ready for a change.

After all, the black vote had long been a critical component of the Machine, delivering huge majorities for Daley. With Newhouse running, and Metcalfe defecting, it was presumed that Daley’s black vote would plummet. Likewise, it was presumed that “independent” voters along the Lakefront were repulsed by Daley Administration scandals, and would stampede to Singer. And it was presumed that Hanrahan, who was reviled by black voters for initiating a raid in 1971 that killed a Black Panther, would get a strong vote in the white wards.

All those presumptions were wrong.

In the six Lakefront wards, Daley got 46.5 percent, to Singer’s 46.4. In the ten black-majority wards, Daley got 47 percent, to Singer’s 31.2 and Newhouse’s 19.9. And in the eleven white ethnic wards, Daley got 67.2 percent, to Singer’s 22.3 and Hanrahan’s 7.2.

So Daley’s Time of Troubles did not cause his demise. Enduring voter affection, and a resistance to change, gave Daley a solid 57.8 percent citywide triumph; he amassed 432,224 votes, to Singer’s 217,764, Newhouse’s 58,548, and Hanrahan’s 37,034. Of course, the Time for Change was just a few years away, as Daley died in 1976.

Now, after 16 years as Chicago’s mayor, Daley II is beset by his own Time of Troubles, with convictions mounting in the federal Hired Truck investigation, and with the media questioning the mayor’s energy and imagination. However, the 63-year old Daley can take solace from his father’s 1975 triumph. As he ponders his 2007 re-election campaign, Daley II is as much of a political icon as was his father, and just as strong politically. He has several distinct advantages:

First, there are no throbbing constituencies of dissent within the city. Blacks are not restive, and there is no perception that the Daley Administration is racist or discriminatory. Black wards get their fair share of city services. And, although whites occupy a disproportionate share of top-paying city jobs, blacks are not complaining. Among Hispanics, who have a low voter turnout anyway, Daley’s Hispanic Democratic Organization (HDO) cranks out a huge vote for Daley and his annointed candidates. Lakefront liberals and independents have no beef with the mayor. He supports gay rights, has plenty of women in his administration, and backed Barack Obama in the 2004 Senate election.

Also, Chicago has become a cultural mecca, an environmental showpiece, and housing prices are skyrocketing. In short, Chicagoans are very content to live and work in Chicago.

Second, there are few formidable candidates for mayor. The most prominent black is U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2), who has criticized Daley’s “fraudulent and corrupt” minority set-aside program, proclaimed that the Daley Administration has “a new scandal every day,” and demanded that the mayor “clean up the stench.” In response, black Alderman Ike Carothers sneered that Jackson “wants to be king of the world.” Although most black ward committeemen would support the mayor, Jackson, if he runs, would get over three-fourths of the black vote. But would he get liberal white votes? He definitely wouldn’t get much support in the outlying white ethnic areas on the Northwest and Southwest sides, or from Hispanics.

But Jackson has one huge advantage: With his father’s nationwide connections, he can raise a lot of money very quickly. Young Jackson said he is not going to run for mayor, but if the “stench” becomes nauseating by late 2006, he could jump into the mayoral race as the “reform” candidate.

For history buffs, a prospective 2007 Daley-Jackson race would be reminiscent of the 1973 Los Angeles contest between white mayor Sam Yorty, a 12-year incumbent, and black former police chief Tom Bradley, a law-and-order conservative. Voters were tired of the irascible Yorty, and Bradley, no “Black Power” advocate, was a safe alternative, and won. If Jackson can position himself as a similarly safe alternative, and define the election as a referendum on Daley – as opposed to a “choice” between a black and a white – then he could duplicate Bradley’s feat.

The names of only two white candidates have surfaced: Alderman Joe Moore (49th), from Rogers Park, a liberal; and current city clerk Jim Laski, who is apparently going to run for state treasurer in 2006. The February 2007 election is just 22 months away. By mid-1973, Singer was already campaigning. Other than Jackson, any 2007 anti-Daley contender must announce by mid-summer 2005.  

And third, the Democratic Machine is alive and well – albeit in an evolved form.

Since 1931, when Democrat Anton Cermak ousted Chicago’s last Republican mayor, Big Bill Thompson, the function of the Democratic Machine has been threefold: Dispense city jobs, render services, and permit the accumulation of wealth.   Chicago currently has roughly 40,000 employees, and Cook County government another 12,000. Over the decades, those numbers haven’t changed appreciably, but the nature of the jobs, and the hiring rules, have. In the good old days, the preponderance of jobs were blue collar, primarily laborers; now the bulk are white collar, and unions and federal and state court decisions block the firing of workers for political reasons. When Daley I ran the Machine, he could deploy upwards of 25,000 people into the city’s precincts on behalf of Machine candidates. Under Daley II, that number is down to under 8,000. Putting somebody on the payroll does not now guarantee that they will be lifetime precinct workers.

The array of city services, too, has receded. Many city functions are now handled by private contractors. What remains are police and fire protection, refuse pickup, and limited environmental services. By providing fewer services, city government has less of a claim to a voter’s loyalty.

But the creation of wealth – and the sharing of it -- has become the Machine’s top priority. Back in the old days, wealth was created by apportioning a few lucrative city construction contracts to political backers or family friends; and they, in turn, donated a few dollars at campaign time. In fact, $100,000 was more than enough to run newspaper ads and give workers “walking around” money on election day.

But prices have risen, and opportunities for wealth have exploded exponentially. It now takes $10 million to run a credible race for mayor, and at least $5 million to run for county board president. Chicago’s annual budget is up to $5 billion, and the county’s budget up to $3 billion. The increasing privatization of government services means thousands of small contracts – and small contributions. And the ongoing building boom, for both public and private edifices, insures that construction contracts run into the millions of dollars. This keeps the construction trades busy, and the contractors keep the campaign funds of Daley II and his allies overflowing.

1975 was supposed to have been the end of the Daley reign. It didn’t happen. Don’t expect it to happen in 2007.