Mayor Rich Daley is on a political arc: He's either on an upward trajectory, poised to be Chicago's mayor for life, impervious to either electoral defeat or removal through federal prosecution, or he's on a downward trajectory -- a lame duck, either voluntarily or involuntarily serving his last term.

If he serves through his next term, which ends in April of 2011, Daley, age 64, will surpass the 21-year longevity record of his father, Richard J. Daley, which ran from April of 1955 until his death in November of 1976.

Perceptions are critical. In the Feb. 27 election, Daley got 318,578 votes (71.1 percent of the votes cast) in a turnout of just 447,571. Chicago has 1,416,101 registered voters. That means Daley got just 31.6 percent of the total voter pool. And his black opponents, Dorothy Brown and Dock Walls, amassing a total of 128,993 votes, got 9.1 percent of the voter pool.

The true winner of the election was "None of the Above." Roughly 840,000 eligible Chicagoans chose not to vote. That can be attributed to fatigue with Daley, frustration with lack of viable alternatives and corruption in City Hall. To be sure, neither Brown nor Walls possessed money or credibility. They failed to raise the "reform" standard, and they failed to energize the black voter base.

In 2003, against three uninspiring black foes, Daley got 115,000 votes in the 20 black-majority wards. In 2007 he got 103,899 votes, winning either a plurality or a majority in every ward. In Todd Stroger's 8th Ward, Daley got 6,944 votes (50.6 percent of the votes cast). In the 7th Ward, where Sandi Jackson upset the "Beavers Machine," he got 6,060 votes (53.8 percent). In Jesse White's Near West Side 27th Ward, he got 3,933 votes (64 percent). In Ike Carothers' West Side 29th Ward, he got 5,422 votes (64.6 percent).

The black Democratic committeemen produced votes for the mayor, in large part because the mayor made sure that Todd Stroger retained the Cook County Board presidency and control of thousands of patronage jobs. But the turnout in the black wards was feeble when compared to 2004, when Barack Obama rolled up a staggering 421,235 votes in those wards. Of the city's voters, 631,920 are in predominantly black wards. Turnout in those wards was more than 461,000 in 2004 but just 188,912 in 2007, when Daley's foes got a total of 85,013 votes. That means almost 445,000 voters in black-majority wards didn't vote.

Daley's vote was equally inauspicious among white voters. Registration in Chicago's 20 white-majority wards is 594,064, or 42 percent of total voters. In this election Daley got 166,882 votes, or just 28 percent of those eligible to vote in those wards.

In many respects, Daley is a Republican. He supports privatization of city services, wants to bring in big-box development, and has kept a lid on city spending and taxes. Only one union endorsed him. But the mayor spent more than $3 million, scared off opposition from Jesse Jackson Jr., got Obama's endorsement, and mobilized city and county job holders.

Daley won because "livability" trumps corruption. Crime is down, educational performance, property values and economic growth are up, city services are satisfactory, and taxes are tolerable. Satisfied Chicagoans voted, while dissatisfied Chicagoans didn't. Those who seek reform and blame Daley for city corruption had no champion. Hence, they abstained.

In 1987, just 20 years ago, at the height of Harold Washington's power, turnout was more than 1.1 million. It has dropped by more than 650,000 since then. If and when some politician comes along who can awaken that sleeping giant, Daley will be history.

The mayor's immediate problem is domination of the City Council. Because Daley fairly allocates city services to each ward and because each alderman has $1.2 million annually in discretionary funds to spend, the council has been subservient. The unions secured 35 votes for their big-box living wage ordinance, which Daley vetoed, and the council failed to override the veto. Since the last City Council election in 2003, there have been only two consistent critics of the mayor: Aldermen Joe Moore (49th) and Ricardo Munoz (22nd). In the next council, there will be at least 10.

In the past seven municipal elections, incumbents won 268 of 302 contests, or 88.7 percent. In 2003 only three incumbents lost. On Feb. 27 three incumbents lost: Burt Natarus (42nd), Arenda Troutman (20th) and Darcel Beavers (7th), and there will be 12 runoffs on April 17, with 11 incumbents in jeopardy. At least six will lose.

The new council will have at least four consistent Daley critics: Moore, Munoz, Toni Preckwinkle (4th) and Sandi Jackson (7th), the wife of U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2). The growth of an anti-Daley bloc will depend on two factors: infallibility and inevitability.

First, Daley must intervene successfully in the April 17 aldermanic runoffs. Nine incumbents are loyal Daley supporters, one is a Daley appointee, one opposes Moore, and one opposes a union-backed candidate. Having won, Daley has some political capital. As the current and future mayor, his endorsements have value; likewise, he can divert money and manpower to his chosen candidates. But the mayor must be discreet. If he supports various contenders and they lose, then his image of infallibility crumbles.

But the secondary, or subliminal, issue is inevitability. The U.S. Attorney's Office has convicted 41 in the Hired Truck Program probe and is closing in on Hispanic Democratic Organization chieftains Victor Reyes and Al Sanchez. If they go down, Daley is next. To govern effectively during his new term, Daley must convey the image of continuity and invulnerability. He must appear poised for another term in 2011.

If he successfully conveys that image, the City Council will be compliant. If it unravels, chaos will reign. There is no anti-Daley spokesman at present, but there soon will be.

Numerous aldermen will be positioning themselves as the anti-Daley contender for 2011.

Munoz will be running for Congress in 2008, and if he wins, he will use that as a platform to run for mayor. Moore, if he is re-elected, will run as the 2011 "reformer." Preckwinkle or one of the Jacksons will be the African-American candidate. To govern, Daley must at all times be perceived as a likely 2011 winner. If it looks like he will be indicted, his power evaporates. Here's a look at key runoffs:

As a rule of thumb, incumbents who get close to 50 percent of the vote in the general election can succeed, but those who get less than 40 percent are toast.

In the South Side 2nd Ward, which has a growing white population, pro-Daley Alderman Madeline Haithcock, who is black, got 2,130 votes (20.4 percent of the votes cast); in 2003 she got 4,190 votes. Attorney Bob Fioretti, who is white, got 2,927 votes (28 percent), and he will beat her.

In the South Side 3rd Ward, where pro-Daley Alderman Dorothy Tillman has championed slave reparations for years, the unions backed Pat Dowell, who got 3,020 votes (38.2 percent) to Tillman's 3,383 (42.8 percent). In 2003 Tillman got 3,986 votes to Dowell's 2,728, winning with just 52 percent of the vote. Unless Daley floods the ward with workers, Dowell will win.

In the South Side 16th Ward, where pro-Daley Alderman Shirley Coleman opposed the big-box living wage ordinance and welcomed Wal-Mart, the incumbent got just 2,023 votes (36 percent of the total); the pro-labor candidate, Joann Thompson, got 2,328 votes (42 percent). Coleman got 3,079 votes in 2003. She will lose the runoff.

In the North Side Wicker Park/Bucktown 32nd Ward, where pro-Daley Ted Matlak has been unable to entrench himself, Matlak got 3,793 votes (47 percent of the total), to "reformer" Scott Waguespack's 3,185 (39 percent). Matlak got 5,518 votes in 2003 with the help of a precinct army commanded by since-convicted Daley operatives Don Tomczak and Dan Katalinic. He got 6,725 votes (54 percent) in 1999. Clearly, his base is deteriorating. Unless Daley invades the ward with his workers, Waugespack will win -- and be an anti-Daley alderman.

In the Logan Square 35th Ward, pro-Daley Alderman Rey Colon faces former alderman Vilma Colom. The HDO will come to his rescue.

In the West Rogers Park 50th Ward, pro-Daley Alderman Berny Stone got 5,059 votes (48.3 percent of the vote), to Naisy Dolar's 2,958. Stone got 5,755 votes in 2003. Daley cannot let him lose.

In the Lincoln Park 43rd Ward, pro-Daley Alderman Vi Daley got 4,334 votes (48 percent), to Michele Smith's 2,960. Daley got 5,678 votes in 2003. The mayor cannot let her lose.

In the Rogers Park 49th Ward, the pro-union Moore is in a runoff with Don Gordon, who is quietly pro-Daley and pro-business. Moore got 3,637 votes, to Gordon's 2,162. Moore got 3,693 votes in 2003. The mayor will try to beat him.

In the South Side 21st Ward, occasionally pro-Daley Alderman Howard Brookins is facing pro-union LeRoy Jones Jr. in the runoff. Brookins got 6,361 votes (46 percent of the vote) to Jones' 4,745. In the 2003 runoff, Brookins got 6,015 votes (51 percent). Daley will keep hands off.

My prediction: Of 12 runoffs, the pro-Daley candidate will win four.