NIMBY is a well used acronym for "not in my back yard." As in the controversy about depositing nuclear waste in Nevada's Yucca Mountain, nobody wants toxic material, or any hazardous residue, in close proximity.

Here are two acronyms which aptly describe Julie Hamos' defeat in the North Shore 10th U.S. House District Democratic primary on Feb. 2: NIMCD and ITWY. They mean, respectively, "not in my congressional district" and "it's the wrong year."

Hamos, a 12-year state representative, lost to Dan Seals by 25,490-24,531, a margin of 959 votes, getting 46.4 percent of the 52,859 votes cast. The reasons are multitudinous: She's from Evanston, is part of the "Jan/Bob Machine" of U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky's (D-9), has never involved herself in Jewish issues, had no roots in the district, and was generally perceived as an outsider and an opportunist.

A third candidate, Elliot Richardson of Buffalo Grove, got 2,838 votes (5.4 percent of the total).

To Democratic workers, especially in Palatine, Wheeling and the Lake County portion of the district, Hamos was politically toxic. They had exerted Herculean effort in Seals' two efforts to oust Republican incumbent Mark Kirk. Seals lost by 13,651 votes in 2006, getting 46.6 percent of the vote, and by 14,906 votes in 2008, with 47.5 percent of the vote. When Kirk announced his bid for the U.S. Senate, opening the seat, a lot of Democrats felt Seals deserved a third chance.

Hamos was nowhere evident in those campaigns, and in late 2009 she moved into Wilmette only after she announced her candidacy. In fact, her real 2010 goal was to run for state attorney general, but that was foreclosed when incumbent Democrat Lisa Madigan opted to run for reelection and not for governor or senator.

"She was looking for something to run for, and the 10th District was her best available choice," said one Lake County Democratic activist. "But, to us, Dan was the best available choice. He ran twice and deserved another chance."

However, Hamos violated a cardinal political rule, namely, first, poll; second, dispel perceptions; third, assemble clout; and fourth, jump. Hamos did it in reverse, and therein lies the fatal flaw in her campaign.

Encouraged by Schakowsky and a coterie of Springfield legislators, Hamos announced her candidacy in August, as soon as Kirk vacated the seat. She had a phalanx of supposedly powerhouse politicians behind her: Schakowsky, state Senators Susan Garrett (D-29) and Jeff Schoenberg (D-9), state Representatives Karen May (D-58) and Elaine Nekritz (D-57), Cook County Commissioner Larry Suffredin, and a bunch of Evanston politicians. That gave her instant credibility.

Hamos' media spin was that there was latent "Seals fatigue" among district Democrats, that Seals was a two-time loser, that his organization had evaporated, and that Hamos was the Obama-like candidate for "change." Then she took a poll, and according to insiders, the result was stunning: She had lower name identification than the Obama family's Portuguese water dog. Seals was beloved, not reviled, by district Democrats, and nobody knew Hamos.

In short, it was FUBAR -- beyond recovery. Hamos' campaign spent $1.5 million and targeted women and Jewish households with gender-specific and religious-based ads and mailings. The campaign sent out mailers highlighting her focus on women's health issues. It trumpeted the fact that Hamos is the daughter of Holocaust survivors. The "Jan/Bob Machine" sent workers north into New Trier Township (Wilmette, Kenilworth, Winnetka and Glencoe).

Nevertheless, a majority of Democratic voters emphatically did not want Hamos in their congressional district.

In the 221 precincts that are in Lake County, despite a high concentration of Jewish voters in Buffalo Grove, Riverwoods, Lincolnshire, Deerfield and Highland Park, Seals won 11,006-9,635, getting 50.5 percent of the vote and winning by a margin of 1,371 votes.

In Wheeling Township, which includes the south half of Buffalo Grove, Wheeling, Arlington Heights and Prospect Heights, Seals won by 5,653-4,015, getting 54.8 percent of the vote and winning by a margin of 1,638 votes. Seals won Palatine Township, which includes Barrington, Inverness and part of Palatine, won by 1,485-1,082, and Elk Grove Township by 505-327.

In the 290 precincts in Cook County, Seals lost by 412 votes, with 46.7 percent of the vote. The final count was 14,896-14,484, with 1,674 for Richardson, giving Hamos 47.9 percent of the vote.

"She lost for two reasons," said Cook County Commissioner Larry Suffredin of Evanston. "First, she didn't do well enough in New Trier (Township) to offset Seals' votes elsewhere, and, second, she didn't have enough time. Given another month, she would have won. She came real close." And, Suffredin adds, Seals is perceived among Democrats as a "nice guy."

In crucial New Trier Township, just north of Evanston, where Hamos poured money and the "Jan/Bob Machine" dispatched workers, Hamos won by 4,573-3,114 over Seals, getting 57.4 percent of the vote and winning by a margin of 1,459 votes. Richardson got 276 votes. Hamos' campaign strategists anticipated 5,500 votes, or 70 percent, in the township. After all, this was her adopted base. Had Hamos topped Seals by 5,500-2,100, a margin of 3,400 votes, she'd be the Democratic nominee.

Why did Hamos lose? Blame it on NIMBY. Evanston residents are viewed, at least in Wilmette, Winnetka and Glencoe, as snooty and self-absorbed. Evanston already has a congresswoman in Schakowsky. Does the city deserve another? People outside the town think not.

NIMBY also prevailed in Northfield Township, which contains Northbrook, Northfield and Glenview. Instead of winning her projected 60 percent, Hamos triumphed by 4,899-3,727 (with 53.4 percent of the vote), with 553 votes for Richardson. Hamos needed 5,500 votes in the township.

A second reason for Hamos' demise: ITWY. In 2008, when Barack Obama was running for president, turnout in the 10th District Democratic primary was 93,148. It was 40,289 less in 2010, which indicates that almost half of the Democrats' liberal base is not energized.

Had Hamos run in 2008, when the Cook County vote was 50,675, not 31,054, she would have won. The Obama-Clinton presidential primary elicited a huge turnout. It was 9,833 in New Trier Township, 14,886 in Northfield Township, 25,956 in the west end of the district and 42,473 in Lake County.

Seals, like Obama, is of mixed race, and he was the liberal and politically correct candidate in 2008, beating Jay Footlik, a lobbyist for a pro-Israel political action committee, in the congressional primary by a hefty 75,877-17,271, with 81.5 percent of the vote. However, against Obama in the delegate primary, Hillary Clinton's five delegate candidates averaged 31,654 votes, while Obama's five averaged 54,518 votes. Clearly, a lot of white women backed Clinton over Obama.

The Lake County vote dropped from 42,473 in 2008 to 21,805 in this primary. It dropped from 9,833 to 7,963 in New Trier Township and from 14,886 to 9,179 in Northfield Township.

The fervent anti-Bush, anti-Iraq, anti-conservative anger that manifested itself against Kirk and fueled Seals' candidacy in 2006 and 2008 has dissipated. Ironically, even though Seals is a non-incumbent, he is perceived as the "Obama" candidate in the fall election.

The Democrats hold a 257-178 majority in the U.S. House, having gained 29 seats in 2006 and 25 seats in 2008. To resume control, Republicans must gain 39 Democratic-held seats in the fall.

The operative acronym was NO-RINO in the Republican primary, meaning no "Republican in name only." Businessman Bob Dold tapped into palpable anti-tax, anti-Obama sentiment and defeated the favored, better known 14-year state Representative Beth Coulson (R-17) by 19,691-16,149, getting 38 percent of the vote in a turnout of 51,763. Dick Green had 7,595 votes, Arie Friedman had 7,250, and Paul Hamann had 1,078.

Coulson, of Glenview, is a liberal on social issues and is deemed a RINO. She carried her Northfield Township base over Dold by 4,022-2,446, getting 48.4 percent of the vote, but a local school referendum in New Trier Township, Dold's base, engendered a huge Republican turnout, and Dold won the township 4,039-1,833, with 56.6 percent of the vote. Dold also ran first in Palatine, Wheeling and Elk Grove townships and in Lake County. Dold, who is a staunch fiscal conservative, opposes the Obama health care plan but is pro-choice on abortion.

The Republican turnout increased from 44,967 in 2008 to 51,763 in 2010, while the Democrats' declined from 93,148 to 52,859. Clearly, the Republicans are energized and the Democrats are apathetic.

The outlook: Without a legislative voting record, Dold will be hard to isolate as a nutty conservative. Already Dold's internal polling shows him leading Seals by 7 points, 42 percent to 35 percent. The North Shore's political environment has undergone an upheaval, from Obama fascination to Obama irritation. Kirk is enormously popular, and he will get close to 70 percent of the vote in the district.

My prediction: In an ironic role reversal, Dold is the "change" candidate and Seals is the status quo insider. Washington Democrats are targeting the district in their "red-to-blue" fund-raising effort, and they deem it to be one of the few Democratic pick-up opportunities in 2010. Anger compels people to vote, but disgust and disappointment doesn't. Message to Seals: ITWY. Dold will win.