Remember
the old pop song lyric: "Everybody loves
somebody sometime"? That, in a nutshell,
explains the March 3 Democratic primary in the 5th
U.S. House District.
The
"Big Four" -- state Representatives John
Fritchey and Sara Feigenholtz, county Commissioner
Mike Quigley and Alderman Pat O'Connor (40th) --
spent a combined $1,911,485 and got a cumulative
37,467 votes, but the didn't generate much
"love." Quigley eked out a victory with
22 percent of the vote, to 17.8 percent for
Fritchey, 16.7 percent for Feigenholtz and 11.6
percent for O'Connor.
The
eight also-rans -- Victor Forys, Paul Bryar, Tom
Geohegan, Charlie Wheelan, Jan Donatelli, Cary
Capparelli, Frank Annunzio and Carlos Monteagudo
-- had a core of ardent admirers but never had a
realistic chance to win. They raised a combined
$1,243,064 and amassed a cumulative 17,412 votes
(31.9 percent of the total cast). Clearly,
somebody loved them. They were more than just
clutter.
Turnout
in the 2008 Democratic primary was 124,098. Had
the "Little Eight" been running, they
would have been fringe candidates. But this was a
primary in which people made their choice before
going to the polls, not in the polling booth, and
that meant money and manpower was less important
than motivation.
Fritchey
had both money ($605,813) and manpower, and he was
backed by Democratic organizations in the 32nd,
33rd, 36th, 38th, 43rd, 45th and 47th wards.
Feigenholtz had money ($801,244) and gender
appeal, and some manpower. Quigley had money
($402,380) and no manpower, but a potent message:
"I detest Todd Stroger, taxes and
spending."
The
media has hailed Quigley's triumph as an
"earthquake," an incipient maelstrom of
voter anger and disgust. Not true. The result, to
use a metaphor, was more akin to a leap off a
curb, not a cliff. Of the district's 350,000
registered voters, turnout was 54,879, or 15.6
percent. Quigley got 12,102 votes, or 3.4 percent
of the registered voters and 22 percent of the
turnout.
Quigley
had the most appeal of the candidates, but the
dominant message from the voters was, "I
don't give a damn."
On
the Northwest Side (see
adjoining vote chart), Quigley ran third in
the 36th Ward, second in the 38th, 39th, 40th and
45th wards, and first in the 41st, 47th and 32nd
wards. In the eastern portion of the district,
where liberals predominate, Quigley finished
second to Feigenholtz. In the suburbs he ran
fourth, with 13.5 percent of the vote.
Fritchey,
who tried to posture as a reformer while relying
on machine support, was a flop. He finished first
in the 36th Ward (30.1 percent of the vote) and
the 45th Ward (22.9 percent) and second in the
47th Ward (25.3 percent) and his own 32nd Ward
(24.1 percent), where he is committeeman. He
needed 40 percent of the vote in those wards.
Here
is a report card, grading the campaigns and
candidates on a scale of A to F:
Strategy
and message:
With Barack Obama ensconced in the White
House and perceived by many voters as America's
savior, there was no demonization factor in the
primary. Nobody could claim that his or her
election was critical to Obama's success or
necessary to thwart the Republicans or to pass the
stimulus package.
Feigenholtz'
campaign was all about gender. She figured that
more than half of the primary voters would be
women and that more than half would vote for her.
She and Donatelli were the only women running.
Feigenholtz had seven districtwide mailings, all
directly targeted to households with female voters
and all addressed to women. She stressed that her
mother was a physician, that she had fought for
women's health issues in Springfield and that
"accessible and affordable health care"
would be her Washington priority. Grade: D-minus.
Poor choice. Stale message. No motivation. With
$787 billion in stimulus spending and $3.5
trillion in spending projected over the next 4
years, universal health care is a done deal.
Feigenholtz
claimed to have 2,000 donors and 500 workers. She
was endorsed by the Service Employees
International Union, which intervened in a bunch
of 2007 city aldermanic elections. Emily's List,
the feminist political action committee,
contributed more than $300,000. The net result:
Zip. Feigenholtz finished third in the 32nd, 39th,
40th and 47th wards, fourth in the 36th, 38th and
45th wards, and fifth in the 41st Ward. She barely
beat Quigley in her east end base, and her gender
strategy fizzled. If roughly 30,000 women voted in
the primary, then only 6,000 to 8,000 voted for
Feigenholtz (who got 9,174 votes) -- barely a
quarter of the female vote.
Fritchey
emphasized his early opposition to former governor
Rod Blagojevich's "pay to play" antics
and his bill to ban contributions from state
contractors. He claimed to be a reformer, but he
was too tentative. He should have proclaimed:
"I stood up to Blagojevich." Or "I
helped Illinois get rid of Blagojevich."
Instead, he touted his "legislative
experience." Grade: D-minus. To disgusted
voters, "experience" meant more of the
same.
Fritchey
also relied on Democratic precinct captains to
deliver his vote, but he failed to articulate a
salient message and pre-sell the voters. When
workers knocked on doors, people were unimpressed.
In the 36th Ward, where his father-in-law Sam
Banks is the brother of Bill Banks, the alderman
and committeeman, Fritchey got a tepid 1,721 votes
(30.1 percent of the total), to 1,380 for Forys
and 769 for Quigley, in a turnout of 5,555. He
should have gotten 4,000 votes in the ward.
Likewise, he should have gotten 3,000 votes in the
38th Ward, not 769, and 4,000 votes in the 45th
Ward, not 1,544.
Fritchey
raised substantial funds from union sources, and
he was endorsed by the AFL-CIO and the Chicago
Teachers Union, but they were worthless in
delivering any votes.
Forys,
a physician, finished fourth, ahead of O'Connor,
getting 6,419 votes (11.7 percent of the total).
His theme was: "I am a Polish American. Vote
for me." He raised $322,022 and had six
direct-mail pieces to every Polish-surnamed
household in the district. Forys ran first in the
suburbs, getting 22.6 percent of the vote. There
is a large Polish-American population in Elmwood
Park, River Grove, Schiller Park, Franklin Park
and Northlake. In addition, Forys ran first in the
38th Ward, with 25.9 percent of the vote (to 15.2
percent for Fritchey), second in the 36th Ward and
third in the 45th Ward. His vote was negligible in
the eastern portion of the district. Grade: B.
If
there had been 25 candidates or if the district
just contained its western portion, Forys could
have won. He proved that an ethnic appeal to Poles
generates votes.
Quigley
basically ran against Todd Stroger, the enormously
unpopular -- in the city's predominantly white
areas -- president of the Cook County Board. His
theme: anti-corruption, anti-spending, anti-taxes,
anti-incompetence. A county commissioner since
2002, Quigley was the most visible and vocal
opponent of Stroger's sales tax hike and spending
increases. As a result, he had high name
identification throughout the 5th District, even
though his county board district is in the east
end of the district.
Grade:
A. Quigley sent out eight direct-mail pieces to
every Democratic household, proclaiming himself an
"anti-tax" fighter who "stood up to
Stroger." Without a base or an army of
workers in the west portion of the district,
sounding like a Republican and blasting Stroger,
not Mayor Rich Daley, Quigley carved an astute
voter niche as the anti-establishment,
send-a-message candidate. Endorsements by the
Chicago Tribune and the Chicago Sun-Times helped.
In
the east portion of the district, Quigley carried
his home 46th Ward with 52.1 percent of the vote,
but he barely edged out Feigenholtz in the 44th
Ward (34.6 percent to 34.2 percent) and the 43rd
Ward (27.3 percent to 25.4 percent). In the
Ravenswood-area 47th Ward, where Alderman Gene
Schulter backed Fritchey, Quigley got 29.3 percent
of the vote, to Fritchey's 25.3 percent. In the
Wicker Park 32nd Ward, Fritchey's base, Quigley
beat him 26.5 percent to 24.2 percent.
O'Connor's
strategy was no strategy. He got 53.3 percent of
the vote in his 40th Ward and 27.6 percent in the
39th Ward. Grade: D. He knew he was a loser when
he failed to get Daley's endorsement and party
slating. After finishing with an embarrassing 11.6
percent of the vote, O'Connor's hope for higher
office is extinguished.
Here
are the "real" losers:
Todd
Stroger: With Quigley going to Washington, Stroger
now will face only Claypool in 2010.
Unions:
What good is all that money when unions can't
motivate their members?
Rahm
Emanuel: The former congressman, now Obama chief
of staff, won't be able to reclaim his seat.
Fritchey:
Forget about running for Illinois attorney general
in 2010.
Ward
committeemen: They couldn't deliver a third of the
vote in a 15 percent turnout.