Chicago aldermen, like most office holders, view elections as an unavoidable occupational hazard. They occur every 4 years.

However, opposition is an avoidable circumstance. The best opponent is no opponent. And, as always, the way to intimidate or discourage an opponent is to raise enormous amounts of campaign cash or to have won the previous election by an enormous majority. Failing that, the next best way is to hire competent attorneys to scrutinize opponents' nominating petitions and knock them off the ballot.

Therein lies a tale of two Northwest Side wards: In the 41st Ward, Alderman Brian Doherty scoffs at his opposition. In the 36th Ward, Alderman Bill Banks quakes over his opposition.

Here's an analysis:

41st Ward (Edison Park, Norwood Park, Oriole Park, Edgebrook): Doherty, a Republican, was first elected to the City Council in 1991, upsetting Alderman Roman Pucinski with 54.1 percent of the vote in a runoff. In 1995, against two opponents, he was re-elected with 76 percent of the vote, getting 12,469 votes. In 1999, with a single foe, he was re-elected with 75 percent, getting 14,182 votes. In 2003, against four opponents, he was re-elected with 73 percent, getting 10,777 votes.

Doherty has three opponents this year: Mike Hannon, a 23-year-old account manager backed by ward Democratic Committeeman Ralph Capparelli, Andy DeVito, an official with Laborers' Local 1092, and Don Markham, a Chicago police sergeant. Observed Frank Coconate, chairman of the Northwest Side Democratic Organization, who aborted his own bid for alderman: "Doherty can't be beat." As for Doherty's opponents, Coconate said, "They're not doing anything. There's no signs, no workers, no mailings. Nothing."

According to the latest financial disclosure filings, Doherty's campaign committee had $8,951 on hand and raised $31,602 through Dec. 31.

Doherty boasts that in his 16 years as alderman he has "never voted to raise property taxes" and that he has the "best anti-tax record" in the City Council. He admits that he supports Mayor Rich Daley "75 to 80 percent of the time."

One would think that the mayor would want to cleanse the council of a pesky anti-tax Republican and install a worthy Daley-supporting Democrat in the job, but the 41st Ward is not fertile Daley territory. It has close to 1,000 police and firefighters who live in the ward, most of whom detest the mayor. It has a huge second- and third-generation Irish-American population, who relate well to Doherty.

Plus, Doherty is socially conservative and pro-labor. He opposed Daley and supported the "Big Box" living wage ordinance, aimed at stores such as Wal-Mart. He opposed resolutions denouncing the U.S. Patriot Act and demanding immediate troop withdrawal from Iraq, has been outspoken in his criticism of slavery reparations, and opposed expansion of affordable housing set-asides for new construction. He voted against the restaurant smoking ban and the aldermanic pay increase, supported the mayor's 2005 and 2006 budgets, and voted against funding to renovate Soldier Field. "I vote the views of the people of my ward," Doherty said.

"Doherty is too complacent," Hannon said. "He does not serve the people. He has lost touch." Hannon makes the curious argument that condominium development is spurring property tax increases.

The alderman's campaign, however, is disseminating a laundry list of improvements in the ward, focusing on infrastructure improvements. State funds were used for Kennedy Expressway overpass reconstruction, at $3.7 million each. Harlem, Nagle, Canfield and Natoma have been completed, and Oriole and Sayre are next. Curbless WPA streets in Edgebrook and Wildwood are part of a 3-year resurfacing plan, and the alderman's $1.2 annual discretionary spending allocation has been used for street repairs on Lehigh, Central and Foster and for vintage lighting on Northwest Highway and in Edison Park.

Doherty said that revitalizing the somnolent Norwood Park commercial district will be a priority in his next term. State funding of $250,000 was secured to finish the railroad station. New retail stores and 45 condos will be built just south of the station on Northwest Highway. Townhouses in the $550,000 range have been built along the railroad tracks north of Nagle. All the obsolescent factories along Northwest Highway, between Nagle Avenue and Raven Street, eventually will become condos or townhouses. Also, liquor can now be sold, making the area feasible for bars and restaurants.

The closed Health Mart property at Northwest Highway and Niagara Avenue is a continuing problem. "Developers want to build eight stories, but my zoning advisory board won't approve more than three," Doherty said. The alderman's nine-member board includes representatives of each community in the ward, plus the chambers of commerce, an architect and a city planner. "They accurately reflect the community, and I heed their advice," the alderman said.

Doherty also boasted about educational performance in the ward's schools. "Of the top 30 academic-performing public schools in Chicago, seven are in the 41st Ward, with testing in grades six, seven and eight among the best," Doherty said. The constriction of the boundaries of Foreman and Steinmetz high schools "means they can't dump their troublesome students on Taft" high school, and the elimination of busing has "improved Taft's standards," according to Doherty. "There are now fewer students being enrolled in parochial schools and more sent to public schools."

The 41st Ward is more than 75 percent white and less than 1 percent black, with the remainder a mix of Asians and Hispanics. It has 37,117 registered voters. John Kerry beat George Bush in the ward in the 2004 presidential election by just 14,625-13,017, a margin of 1,608 votes. In 2000 Al Gore won by 12,951-11,292, a margin of 1,659 votes. By Chicago standards, that makes the 41st Ward an oasis of Republicanism.

Quite helpful, of course, is the fact that ward's Democratic organization is the weakest in Chicago and that Capparelli, when he ran against state Representative Mike McAuliffe (R-20) in 2004, lost the ward by 5,181 votes, getting just 37 percent of the vote.

My prediction: Doherty said he will spend close to $100,000, have four wardwide mailings and have 100 workers on the street. Doherty's margins have declined by about 2 percent per election since 1995, and he will win with 70 percent of the vote. At that rate of atrophy, he will lose his seat in 2047.

36th Ward (Galewood, Montclare, Dunning, Belmont Heights, Cumberland corridor from Belmont to Lawrence): Banks, the ward's Democratic committeeman, was first elected to the City Council in 1983 as a Jane Byrne backer, with 55.6 percent of the vote, getting 16,192 votes to the pro-Daley Rich Pope's 12,944 votes. Banks was elected committeeman in 1984. He was unopposed in 1987, getting 25,056 votes, and he was re-elected in 1991 with 13,540 votes (71 percent of the votes cast) to 5,473 votes for Mike Romanelli.

Banks was unopposed in 1995, when he got 12,012 votes, 1999 (13,534 votes) and 2003 (10,141 votes). Going into 2007 Banks' three campaign committees had a total cash on hand of $831,207. With his ally, state Senator Jim DeLeo (D-10), in the Springfield Democratic majority leadership, the 36th Ward actually gets state jobs. As chairman of the City Council Zoning Committee, Banks is a close ally of Daley, who wants to redevelop Chicago and who and needs plenty of zoning variations. He also gets plenty of contributions from developers, and he has a precinct army of composed of city and county workers.

A Chicago Sun-Times investigative report in 2005 noted that Banks' nephew, a zoning attorney, was successful in 29 of 33 36th Ward rezoning cases brought before his uncle's committee. The alderman abstained from voting on those cases. "There is no business district in the 36th Ward," challenger Nick Sposato said. "There is only a condominium district," which he said extends from along Harlem Avenue from North Avenue to Roscoe Street. Sposato pledged to be a full-time alderman and to get a new library for the ward.

Why is Banks so paranoid about opposition? He had almost 10,000 signatures on his nominating petitions. John Rice, a Banks' employee, filed objections against Sposato and the other three candidates who filed, David Tirado, Rich Behrendt and Sue Diliberto. All but Sposato, a city firefighter, were knocked off the ballot. This writer, who represented Sposato as an attorney before the city Board of Election Commissioners, was told by John Donovan, Banks' political aide, that the alderman "won't talk to you" because of a "conflict of interest" and that I shouldn't write about the 36th Ward contest. Six phone calls to Banks' office, seeking comments for this article, went unanswered.

Sposato said the issue in the election is "change."

"Banks takes hundreds of thousands of dollars from developers and attorneys," Sposato said. "He is their alderman, not the 36th Ward's alderman." Like Doherty, Banks voted for the "Big Box" ordinance, but he supported the pay raise, the smoking ban and the mayor's budgets, opposed Iraq troop withdrawal, and voted "present" on the Patriot Act.

My prediction: There is no doubt that Banks will win, but the alderman doesn't want just a simple majority. He wants a blowout, which means more than 65 percent of the vote. Sposato will spend about $50,000, while Banks likely will spend near $200,000.  Banks will win with 62 percent of the vote, and that will encourage opposition in 2011.