State
Representative Mike McAuliffe (R-20) is known in Springfield,
particularly among his House Republican colleagues, as the "Lean,
Mean Walking Machine." Democrats, while respecting McAuliffe's
physical stamina, derisively refer to him as the "Stairmaster
Candidate."
Nevertheless,
in the Internet age, McAuliffe is a throwback to an earlier era. While
contemporary candidates spend hours raising money and communicate with
voters by television ads, e-mail and U.S. mail, McAuliffe spends hours
knocking on voters' doors and communicating with them personally.
There
can be no doubt that McAuliffe's approach has been a remarkable
success. In 2002 he faced a difficult contest against a fellow
incumbent, Democrat Bob Bugielski. He knew that the organization of
Alderman Bill Banks (36th) would churn out a heavy vote for Bugielski
in its area, and he knew that he had to carry his base, the 41st Ward,
by a margin larger than Bugielski got in the 36th Ward.
So,
beginning in June, McAuliffe walked door-to-door in precincts every
weekday from 4 to 8 p.m. and every weekend day from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.,
often accompanied by his ally, Alderman Brian Doherty (41st). His goal
was to talk to at least 50 voters per weekday and 100 per weekend day,
meaning he had to knock on 250 to 500 doors to meet those targets.
McAuliffe says that during the 5-month period through the November
election, he lost 15 pounds, knocked on an estimated 25,000 doors and
made contact with nearly 8,000 voters.
Every
personal contact received a follow-up letter from his office within 2
days, received additional mailings and was asked to place a McAuliffe
sign in their front yard. Those evidencing support were placed on
McAuliffe's "plus list," received pre-election phone calls
reminding them to vote, and were assigned to election day volunteers
whose job it was to get the pro-McAuliffe voters to the polls.
The
sedate Bugielski, who had undergone heart surgery earlier in 2002,
relied entirely on precinct captains and mailings. The energetic
McAuliffe's strategy obviously was superior: He had adequate funding
from Springfield Republican sources, he had eight districtwide
mailings, including two devastating attack pieces on Bugielski, and he
simply out-worked and out-walked his opponent. In the 41st Ward, where
McAuliffe spent so much time, he topped Bugielski 10,188-6,109 (62.5
percent); Bugielski won his 36th Ward base 6,840-4,350 (61.1 percent).
The aggregate result in those two wards put McAuliffe up by 1,589
votes. In Norwood Park Township, where McAuliffe also walked
precincts, he won 2,949-2,126, a margin of 823 votes. Overall, with
votes from a few precincts in other wards included, McAuliffe
triumphed by 2,583 votes (53.7 percent).
The
Stairmaster candidate beat the couch potato candidate. McAuliffe
literally walked his way to victory in 2002, and he presumed that he
wouldn't have to replicate his efforts ever again. He was wrong.
Doherty,
whose 2002 precinct walking was geared as much to his own re-election
campaign as to McAuliffe's, easily won his fourth term as alderman in
2003 with 73 percent of the vote. But it will be back to the past --
and the precincts -- for McAuliffe this year, and the Northwest Side's
"walking machine" is already operational.
McAuliffe,
age 40, is the 41st Ward Republican committeeman, and he is being
challenged for that post in the March 16 primary by former state
senator Walter Dudycz. In the November election, state Representative
Ralph Capparelli (D-15), a 34-year veteran of the General Assembly who
lives in the 20th District, chose to let his buddy Bugielski run there
in 2002. Capparelli instead won the 15th District seat in 2002, but he
is running in the 20th District this year. Capparelli is the 41st Ward
Democratic committeeman, and he has nearly $1 million in his campaign
account. "I'll outwork them both," McAuliffe promised.
Here's
a look at both races:
41st
Ward Committeeman: It's a matter of micro-politics versus
macro-politics. McAuliffe, who has been the ward's committeeman since
1996, said he is running for re-election because "I've done my
job" and "made (the 41st Ward) the most Republican ward in
Chicago." Dudycz, age 53, who served in the Illinois Senate from
1985 to 2002, is running because he wants to be the Chicago Republican
chairman and a party spokesman, and he can't do so unless he is a
committeeman.
McAuliffe,
at the micro-political level, notes that the 41st Ward is the only
ward in Chicago with a Republican alderman (Doherty) and that in 2002
Republican candidates for governor (Jim Ryan), attorney general (Joe
Birkett) and state treasurer (Judy Baar Topinka) won the ward. George
Bush lost the ward to Al Gore in 2000 12,951-11,292, a margin of just
1,669 votes. From a micro-political psychological standpoint,
McAuliffe cannot afford to lose this race to Dudycz. In fact, he must
win by at least 60-40. If McAuliffe just squeaks by or loses, it will
undermine the perception that he can beat Capparelli.
At
the macro-political level, there is no question that the Republican
Party in Chicago and Cook County is virtually defunct, and Dudycz
blames that on county chairman Maureen Murphy. Murphy is a Board of
Review commissioner and the Worth Township (Oak Lawn) committeeman.
"She has abdicated her responsibilities and done nothing to build
the party," Dudycz said. "The 2004 (county) slate is an
embarrassment."
Dudycz
promised that if he is elected committeeman and then city chairman, he
would "vigorously criticize Democrats like Blagojevich and
Daley and hold them accountable for their actions. Where is the
Republican message?"
Dudycz
said that he has the ability to "articulate a Republican
message," that he would bring back a county convention to choose
candidates, and that he would have a county Republican fund raiser
with a name speaker such as Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger or former
New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, and divide the proceeds among the wards,
based on the tickets that they sell. Dudycz also said that he would go
to college campuses and other forums to debate Democrats, that since
he is now retired, he would be a full-time chairman, and that he would
"get people active, especially young people" in party
politics and "build a farm team" of future candidates.
'I
told Michael (McAuliffe) that if he retired and let me be
committeeman, I would make him the (ward) president, let him pick the
election judges, and let him manage the organization finances,"
Dudycz said. "He refused."
"There
are no more Republicans to kick out (of office)," Dudycz added.
"We must start now to build for 2006."
Unlike
McAuliffe, Dudycz has no plans to go door-to-door. "I will rely
on my record of working for the party," he said, adding said that
he will have at least four direct mailings.
The
outlook: Dudycz's prospects of being city chairman, if elected
committeeman, are virtually zero. Clark Pellett, an ally of Topinka,
has locked up the post. That obliterates Dudycz's rationale for
running.
The
Republican voter pool in the 41st ward is not gigantic. In 2000 just
2,249 votes were cast in the Republican primary (to 9,111 in the
Democratic primary); turnout was 3,528 in 1996 and 2,772 in 1992.
Without a 2004 presidential race to spur interest, turnout on March 16
will be under 2,000, and 2,000 voters means about 1,300 households.
"I'm
already on the street," McAuliffe said. He expects to visit
three-quarters of the Republican households by primary day. "I
tell them why I'm running and what I've done," he said. "I
tell them who I'm running against. Most of these (Republicans)
supported me in the past, and I'm confident they will again."
McAuliffe
expects to have five mailings, and he recently sent out a state
legislative questionnaire. "(Voters) know who I am," he
said. He has an Edison Park office with Doherty and County
Commissioner Pete Silvestri, and he said that "people know that
they get good service when they call."
My
prediction: Turnout will be about 1,800, and McAuliffe will top Dudycz
by 1,100-700.
State
Representative (20th District): Capparelli had two primary opponents,
but both Frank Coconate and Mike Marzullo withdrew, so he is
unopposed. Both also had filed against Capparelli for Democratic
committeeman, and both also withdrew from that race. Primaries are
often a window to the future: If a candidate doesn't win convincingly,
he or she has problems in the election.
The
outlook: Capparelli, age 79, is 2004's couch potato candidate. He
won't be knocking on any doors, and his ward organization is, at best,
skeletal. McAuliffe intends to replicate his 2002 labors. My early
prediction: McAuliffe's "Walking Machine" will beat
Capparelli's "Money Machine."