This column specializes in crunching numbers and making predictions. For the March 3 Democratic primary in the Northwest Side 5th U.S. House District, those crunched numbers are:

620,387: The district's 2005 population.

345,000: The district's estimated number of registered voters.

124,098: The Democratic turnout in the February 2008 presidential primary.

67,499-52,671: The margin by which Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton.

578: The number of precincts in the district -- 486 in Chicago and 92 in the western suburbs.

46,774: The number of votes that victor Rahm Emanuel got in the 2002 Democratic primary in a turnout of 92,625.

33,907: The number of votes that victor Rod Blagojevich got in the 1996 Democratic primary in a turnout of 68,043.

66,000: The average number of residents per Chicago ward.

35,000: The anticipated turnout on March 3 -- just above 9 percent.

10,500: The number of votes needed to win in a 12-candidate race -- which means that the new congressman will have a glorious mandate from 1.7 percent of the district's populace.

2: The number of terms the winner will serve until Emanuel, the new White House chief of staff, comes back to run for his old seat.

And the winner is? How about "Who cares?" Or "I'm not voting." Or "What difference does it make?" Over 90 percent of the registered voters are ignoring the contest and will not vote, which redounds to the benefit of John Fritchey, who has the backing of "powerhouse" Democratic committeemen in the 33rd, 36th, 38th, 43rd, 45th and 47th wards (plus Fritchey, as the 32nd Ward committeeman). They have 275 precincts in their wards, which is 56.5 percent of the Chicago precincts. If they can't pull out 2,500 to 3,000 Fritchey votes in their respective wards, then they should hang their heads, resign and get a job that matches their level of incompetence -- perhaps as an economic advisor to the president.

The top-tier candidates are Fritchey and Sara Feigenholtz, both seven-term state representatives, county Commissioner Mike Quigley, who has served since 1998, and Alderman Pat O'Connor (40th), who has been in the City Council since 1983. Despite the brevity and invisibility of the race, Fritchey raised $454,310, Feigenholtz $550,594, Quigley $303,180 and O'Connor $50,690 through Feb. 19. Quigley has had eight districtwide mailings, Feigenholtz six and Fritchey five, and all have ads on mainstream and cable television.

The second tier includes college professor Charlie Wheelan, labor lawyer Tom Geoghegan, marketing consultant Cary Capparelli and doctor Victor Forys. Each has a small pocket of support, and each will generate near 1,000 votes.

The third tier: Frank Annunzio, the eponymous great-nephew of the former congressman, pilot Jan Donatelli, eye surgeon Paul Bryan and psychiatrist Carlos Monteagudo. All will finish in the range of 200 to 500 votes.

In analyzing the outcome, these factors are critical:

First, only those voters committed to a candidate will make the effort to vote. In short, they won't show up and say: "Who should I pick?" They will be there because they've already decided -- or have been told how to vote.

That greatly diminishes Feigenholtz's gender advantage. This is not a "pig in a poke" contest. Unlike primaries for judge or Metropolitan Water Reclamation District, gender and ethnicity (such as Irish surnames) are irrelevant. Each candidate must identify, motivate and deliver his or her voters, and voters will know their choice before they trek to the polls.

That means GOTV -- get out the vote -- will be paramount. Early polls indicate that more than 70 percent of the district's voters are undecided. Since there are no other contests to lure voters to the polls, an "undecided" voter on March 3 is a nonvoter, and there probably will be 70,000 of them. The question is, who can deliver "their" vote on election day? Fritchey has the edge.

Second, issues don't matter. Feigenholtz is stressing "access to health care" as her primary issue, noting that she grew up in Peterson Park, that her mother was a physician and that she is chairman of the House Human Services Committee. Quigley, an outspoken critic of Cook County Board President Todd Stroger, is focusing on ethics, trumpeting his "record of transparency," proclaiming himself a "fiscal conservative" and "reformer" and saying, "I'm not just another self-serving politician."

Fritchey touts his longstanding criticism of disgraced former governor Rod Blagojevich, whom he replaced in the Illinois House in 1996, and his "experience" in the legislative process. "I know how to do the job," he said.

Hovering in the background is the Obama Administration's $1.5 trillion economic "stimulus" package, which gives Congress a license to spend. Feigenholtz is vague on how to fund everybody's "access" to health care. Fritchey, to his credit, expresses some skepticism. "How do we pay for all this?" Fritchey he asks.

Another issue: The winner will be the U.S. House's most junior member, number 435 of 435. Given the "clout" of predecessors such as Roman Pucinski, Annunzio, Dan Rostenkowski and Emanuel, will the newcomer have any power?  "We have an Illinoisan as president and the former congressman in the White House," Fritchey said. "Whoever represents this district will be listened to."

The point is this: The Illinois political environment is toxic. Voters have had an overdose of lies, evasions, stupidity and duplicity. Felonious conduct by politicians seems to be the norm, not the exception. So who believes what any congressional candidate says, and who cares who goes to Washington?

Third, endorsements are critical, as they generate workers and money. Feigenholtz has the endorsements of Emily's List, a feminist political action committee, the Service Employees International Union and state Comptroller Dan Hynes. The SEIU was a big booster of Blagojevich. Fritchey has the endorsements of the Chicago Teachers' Union, the Illinois Federation of Teachers, the AFL-CIO and the IVI-IPO. "Political independents support me," he said. Quigley has the endorsements of the Sierra Club, the Chicago Sun-Times, county Commissioner Forrest Claypool and county Assessor Jim Houlihan.

Fourth, geography is critical. The district extends from Lincoln Park at the Lakefront to the DuPage County line, taking in parts of 19 Chicago wards and with precincts in Elmwood Park (23), Franklin Park (19), Schiller Park (nine), Northlake (13), River Grove (nine), Melrose Park (18) and Maywood (one). The suburbs account for 16 percent of the district but less than 10 percent of the vote. More importantly, only 89 precincts lie east of Ashland Avenue (15.3 percent of the district) and 124 lie east of Kedzie Avenue (21.4 percent of the district).

The eastern end of the district is the political base of Quigley, Feigenholtz and Fritchey. Quigley is from the 46th Ward, where he once ran for alderman; it has 12 precincts in the 5th District. His county board district covers less than 10 percent of the congressional district. Feigenholtz is out of the 44th Ward, which has 45 precincts in the district. Her Illinois House district overlaps less than 5 percent of the congressional district. Half of Fritchey's House district, east of Sacramento Avenue and north of Armitage Avenue, is in the district, but he is the committeeman of the 32nd Ward, which has 30 precincts in the district.

O'Connor's 40th Ward, east of Kedzie and north of Foster Avenue, has 27 precincts in the district. He should get half his ward's vote, and he will be humiliated if he doesn't.

The outlook: To win, one of the four from the east end of the district must come roaring out with 50 percent of the vote. That won't happen. Each will get 20 to 30 percent. So the west end vote will be decisive.

Fifth, ideology is irrelevant.  Feigenholtz is wrapping herself in the Obama mantle, as the "change" candidate. Obama beat Clinton in 2008 by 14,828 votes, with his heaviest margins in the east end of the district, demonstrating a definite liberal bias. But nobody is running as the anti-Obama candidate, nor is anybody posturing as the "send-me-to-Washington-to-support-Obama" candidate. There is no sense of urgency. If there is an outpouring of Obama liberals, they likely will gravitate to Feigenholtz.

The outlook: Can the committeemen deliver their "controlled" vote? The 2004 Illinois Senate primary is illustrative. Obama beat Hynes, but Hynes got 3,553 votes in the 36th Ward, 2,019 in the 38th, 1,140 in the 43rd, 3,259 in the 45th and 2,799 in the 47th. That's a base "machine" vote of 12,770; add another 1,000 each from Dick Mell's 33rd Ward and Fritchey's 32nd Ward, and Fritchey has close to 15,000 votes. Add another 1,000 from the suburbs and knock off 25 percent for turnout drop-off, and Fritchey still gets more than 10,000 votes.

Had this primary occurred in February of 2008, with a turnout of 124,098, Feigenholtz surely would have won, buoyed by an east end pro-Obama vote. But most of those 67,499 Obama voters will be MIA, the east end "liberal" vote will be fractured and diminished, and the west end's ward committeemen's "ground game" on March 3 will crank out enough votes to nominate Fritchey.

My prediction: In a turnout of 35,000, Fritchey will win with 10,250 votes (29.2 percent of the total), to 9,000 for Feigenholtz, 8,000 for Quigley, and 3,100 for O'Connor, with the remaining 4,650 scattered.