On the Northwest Side, in the 39th District's Democratic primary for state representative, "Big Daddy's Little Girl" is facing a spirited challenge from the "Chapel Hill Kid."

The former is 10-year incumbent Toni Berrios, age 35, the daughter of Chicago's very own "Big Daddy," Joe Berrios. As the Cook County assessor, the Democratic county chairman, a former Board of Review commissioner and the 31st Ward Democratic committeeman, "Big Daddy" Berrios is the consummate political insider, and he can raise thousands of dollars just by hitting his speed dial. He anointed his daughter as a state representative in 2002, and he's not about to let some fancy East Coast liberal beat her.

The latter, Will Guzzardi, age 24, is a Chapel Hill, N.C., native who currently lives in Logan Square and an Internet journalist who worked briefly for the Huffington Post online newspaper, and he possesses boundless energy and ambition. "I'm an independent," Guzzardi proclaimed. "I'm not part of the political machine. The incumbent fights for corporate interests and (Democratic) party interests. I promise change."

"Chicago is not for sale," sniffed Berrios's media consultant, noting that of the $86,148 Guzzardi raised from 82 contributors during the period from July 1 to Dec. 31, 2011, 70 of those contributors were from North Carolina, the East Coast or the West Coast. That's right. Chicago is only for sale to Chicagoans. How dare those impudent, subversive North Carolinians spend their grubby dollars in the Second City? After all, Joe Berrios has a deed to the 39th District, and he bought the seat fair and square.

Unfortunately for the "Berrios Clan," the political neighborhood has changed. The 39th Illinois House District, as created in 2001, became distinctly less hospitable in the 2011 remap. This is inexplicable, as "Big Daddy" is a longtime ally of Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, with whom he served in Springfield from 1982 to 1988 and whose law firm regularly practiced before the Board of Review over the years, securing huge reductions in assessed valuations (and huge fees). "Big Daddy" was a board commissioner from 1988 to 2010, when he was elected assessor. From 2002 through 2009, Berrios's campaign committees raised $4 million, and during 2009-10, Berrios raised $1.9 million for assessor. Take that, North Carolina. Chicagoans can well afford to buy their own elections.

The existing district is 59 percent Hispanic, mostly Puerto Rican, and it encompasses 26 of the 51 precincts in "Big Daddy's" Avondale-Cragin 31st Ward, 29 of the 36 precincts in the Logan Square 35th Ward, 12 precincts in the 1st Ward and another 11 scattered precincts, including one in the 38th Ward. The district extends from Oakley Avenue and North Avenue in Logan Square to Laramie and Belmont avenues in south Portage Park.

Eradication of opposition is a testament to any politician's heft, and "Big Daddy's" money and manpower initially squashed all discontent. Between 2002 and 2010, Toni Berrios was unopposed in four of five of primaries and three of five elections. In the 2004 primary, the Berrios machine obliterated Pedro de Jesus by 6,050-2,832, in a turnout of 8,882, getting 77.4 percent of the vote in the 31st Ward and 61.5 percent in the 35th Ward.

But recent elections spell trouble. In 2008, against Jeremy Karpen, an obscure Green Party candidate, Toni Berrios won by 19,859-5,176, with 79.3 percent of the vote. In 2010 she defeated Karpen by 10,487-5,526, with 65.5 percent of the vote. In her father's 31st Ward, Toni Berrios won 2,948-668 (81.5 percent) in a turnout of 3,616, while in the Logan Square 35th Ward, she won by 4,567-3,231 (58.6 percent) in a turnout of 7,798.

That's significant. When a Democrat beats a Republican 2-1, it means the Democratic base is solid. When a Democrat beats a Green Party candidate 2-1, it means that the Democratic base is fractured and that liberal and independent voters find the Democratic nominee repugnant. Barack Obama won the district with 84 percent of the vote in 2008, and John Kerry won it with 77 percent in 2004, so those Karpen voters are largely pro-Obama, anti-"Big Daddy" Democrats.

In fact, the higher Joe Berrios rises and the more the media pounds on his fund-raising frenzy, the greater his erosion of support. In 2008, running for renomination to the Board of Review against Lakefront liberal Jay Paul Deratany, Berrios won the 31st Ward 5,031-1,213 (with 80.6 percent of the vote) and the 35th Ward 5,484-3,661 (with 59.9 percent).

But 2010 was different. In the primary for assessor, facing former judge Raymond Figueroa and Robert Shaw, Berrios eked out a 39.2 percent countywide victory. But in his back yard, he lost the 35th Ward to Figueroa by 1,620-1,593 (getting just 42.6 percent of the vote), and he won the 31st Ward by an unimpressive 2,093-772 (with 65.7 percent). In the election against independent Forrest Claypool and two other candidates, Berrios won his ward 4,661-1,281 (with 68.3 percent of the vote) over Claypool, in a turnout of 6,821, and he took the 35th Ward 4,914-3,069 (with 50.8 percent) over Claypool, in a turnout of 9,669.

"His base is collapsing, and his ward's turnout is collapsing," Guzzardi said. "I will win because my majority in the 35th Ward will be bigger than her majority in the 31st Ward, and I will break even in the 38th Ward."

In the 2011 remap, designed by Madigan, more than one-third of the territory in the 39th District is new and the district is 54 percent Hispanic. It moved dramatically westward, west of Cicero Avenue into Belmont-Central and Portage Park, extending to Six Corners (Milwaukee/Irving Park/Cicero) and ending at Meade Avenue. It incorporates 20 precincts from the existing 38th Ward (now in the 36th Ward), which are heavily Mexican American, 17 from the 35th Ward/Logan Square (down from 29), and 40 from the 31st Ward (up from 26).

"I have represented the district well," asserted Toni Berrios, whose anointment in 2002 was something of a joke. At that time, she was a 25-year-old student at Northeastern Illinois University, and she got her psychology degree in 2006. But she's no airhead. "She's very bright and hardworking," said former state representative Ralph Capparelli.

Among her accomplishments, Berrios, who is the chairwoman of the House Bio-Technology Committee and co-chair of the Latino Caucus, highlights funding for a number of local projects, including a Haas Park fieldhouse, a Logan Square skating park, a summer school food program and annual resource fairs. But she has been part of the House's Madigan majority, voting for the state income tax hike, the ComEd rate hike and $300 million in tax breaks for Sears and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

How do we solve the state's budget crisis and $500 million fiscal 2012 deficit? "We need bipartisan cooperation," Berrios said. Hold on. Don't the Democrats have a 64-54 House majority and a 35-24 Senate majority? Why can't they solve the problem themselves? "We need Republican votes," she lamely insists.

"We have corruption and insider deals," Guzzardi said. "We have job loss, foreclosures and neighborhood decay. People are looking for change, and they're not going to get it if they keep the same politicians in office."

Guzzardi laments that many in state government are "lining their own pockets," and his solution is as lame as his opponent's: "Less waste . . . better revenues . . . more taxes on the wealthy," he avers. "I'm an Obama Democrat," he adds.

There are various dynamics:

*The Berrios Baggage: "Big Daddy" earns $125,000 annually as assessor. He gave up his lucrative lobbying (for video poker) and insurance businesses. His kids are all on the assessor's payroll: Vanessa as a $68,288-a-year chief industrial appraiser, Joey as a $48,000-a-year residential analyst and Carmen as an $86,000-a-year director of taxpayer services. Toni Berrios earns $67,836. That's $395,124 of taxpayer dollars yearly lining, to use Guzzardi's phrase, the Berrios family's pockets.

*The Berrios Bucks: Guzzardi expects to spend $130,000. "Well match that," Joe Berrios said. "Nobody's going to outwork us." As of Dec. 31, Joe Berrios' countywide committee had $338,718 on hand, the 31st Ward Democrats had $93,082, 31st Ward Alderman Ray Suarez, Berrios's longtime ally, had $1,107,568, and Toni Berrios had $94,407.

*Ethnicity:  Almost three-quarters of the Hispanics in the old 39th District were Puerto Rican. In the new district, 40 percent are Mexican American -- but many are non-citizens. Mexicans traditionally hesitate to vote for Puerto Ricans.

*The 35th Ward Chaos: Alderman Rey Colon, who once was an independent and who now is a Berrios ally, failed to file the requisite number of signatures for Democratic committeeman. A white liberal, Nancy Schiavone, is unopposed for the job. That means Colon's organization is dormant. If Colon stays neutral, that helps Guzzardi. If he endorses Toni Berrios, that gives Schiavone an opening to blast Colon when she runs for alderman in 2015. "Colon will endorse Toni," predicted Joe Berrios. "Colon will be neutral," predicted Guzzardi.

*The 38th Ward Vacuum: Committeeman P.J. Cullerton has endorsed Toni Berrios, but she has few workers in the southwest Portage Park area, where Toni is unknown. "I'm getting a great reception" there, Guzzardi said.

My prediction: Turnout will be low, but the negativity will be high. Expect "Big Daddy" to carpet-bomb the district with mailers ripping the "Chapel Hill Kid" and his seditious outside-the-district money. In a turnout of 6,500, Guzzardi will lose by a minuscule 300 votes.