How
does one succinctly describe the 2007 Chicago
municipal election?
It's
a non-event. The challengers to Mayor Rich Daley
have run lame and listless campaigns. The cascade
of City Hall corruption has temporarily abated.
The city's gluttonous citizenry, who ceaselessly
demand low crime, decent schools, efficient
services, minimal taxes and appreciating property
values, are sated.
The
Feb. 27 election is a referendum Daley and on his
performance over the past 18 years. Chicago works
and Chicagoans prosper, and Daley will win
re-election with 58 percent of the vote.
Fortunately for the mayor, his two foes, Dorothy
Brown and Dock Walls, failed to make reform the
primary issue and failed to expand their base
outside the black community.
Here
are my predictions:
Mayor:
In any other U.S. city, Daley would be a Rudy
Giuliani Republican: conservative on fiscal issues
but liberal on social issues. The city budget has
grown, but not excessively: It was $2.91 billion
in 1989 and $5.7 billion in 2007, an increase of
about $160 million annually. Daley supports
Wal-Mart, the city's unions generally detest him,
and only the Building and Construction Trades
Council has endorsed him. Some black politicians
rage about police brutality. There have been 42
convictions in the Hired Truck Program scandal,
with many more to come. Daley has raised $3.1
million, and he is all over television.
My
prediction: 2007 is not 1963, when Chicago voters
rebelled against rising property taxes. It is not
1983, when black voters arose and elected Harold
Washington. It is not 2003, when few voters gave a
damn, and even fewer voted.
Back
in 1983, turnout was more than 1.2 million. In
2003 it was 442,000, with Daley getting 347,698
votes (79 percent of the votes cast). 2007 is
1995, when turnout was more than 500,000 and Daley
won with 336,183 votes (66 percent). Because of
the plethora of aldermanic contests in the 21
predominantly black wards, turnout will spurt, but
Daley will get about 20 percent of the black vote.
The mayor will finish with 304,000 votes (58
percent of the total), to Brown's 179,000 (34
percent) and Walls' 42,000, in a turnout of
525,000. Daley will get fewer votes than he did in
1995, 1999 and 2003. If he had a credible, well
funded "reform" foe this year, he could
have lost. And if federal indictments and
convictions continue through Daley's next term, he
will lose in 2011.
City
Clerk: Appointed incumbent Miguel del Valle is
perfectly positioned to run for mayor in 2011. He
is Puerto Rican, he has a history of alliances
with liberal blacks and Hispanics, and he now is a
Daley ally. He faces Jose Cerda and Diane Jones.
Del Valle will win with a solid 66 percent of the
vote.
45th
Ward: Alderman Pat Levar, first elected in 1987,
is not beloved, and he is beatable. An influx of
new residents has transformed Portage Park,
Jefferson Park, Forest Glen and Gladstone Park and
created an independent, anti-Levar base.
In
the past, Levar never had overly credible
opponents, with a political base or adequate
funding. This year he has three: Terry Boyke, his
former aide, Bob Bank, a community activist, and
Anna Klocek, who is tapping into the ward's large
Polish-American vote and who will attract some
support because of her gender.
The
recent death of 45th Ward Democratic Committeeman
Tom Lyons has motivated the ward's precinct
captains, numbering more than 200, to "win
one for Tommy." Levar will spend close to
$150,000, and he has signs everywhere. But there
is discontent with Levar, who won with 65 percent
of the vote in 2003, in a turnout of 13,403; he
got 8,667 votes, to Daley's 11,352 votes in the
ward.
My
prediction: Turnout will not exceed 12,000, and
Levar's vote will dwindle to about 6,000. Boyke,
Bank and Klocek are energizing the anti-Levar
vote, with Bank and Klocek blasting Boyke as a
turncoat, Boyke ripping Levar as incompetent, and
Levar's captains eager to avenge Boyke's
defection. In a squeaker, Levar will triumph with
52 percent of the vote, narrowly avoiding a
runoff.
50th
Ward: Father Time is Alderman Berny Stone's
nemesis. Stone, age 79, was first elected in 1973,
and he has been re-elected eight times. His West
Rogers Park ward is undergoing great demographic
change, with an influx of Vietnamese, Korean,
Chinese, Japanese, Thai, Pakistani, Indian,
Russian Jewish, Assyrian and Muslim immigrants, as
well as younger non-Jewish professionals. The
conversion of apartments into condominiums is
surging. The Jewish vote, Stone's longtime base,
is dwindling, and new voters have no reverence for
him.
Architect
Greg Brewer, one of Stone's three foes, recently
sent out a devastating direct mail piece with a
picture of a 1973 car, asking the rhetorical
question: Isn't it time for a new model? Also
running are Naisy Dolar, a Filipina who is
appealing to the Asian community, and Salman Aftab,
a Muslim. Of the three, Dolar has run the most
impressive campaign, but the various ethnic groups
are fractious and disunited, while the Jewish vote
is still more than 35 percent.
Stone
won in 2003 with 5,755 votes in a turnout of
7,558; Daley got 7,061 votes. My prediction: With
three foes campaigning vigorously and spending
money, Stone's vote will decline to about 3,800
(47 percent) in a turnout of 8,000. Dolar will
finish second, causing a runoff. The key is how
close. If Stone doubles Dolar's vote, keeping her
under 1,900, he'll win the runoff, as the
anti-Stone vote will be discouraged. But if she
comes in around 2,500 and attracts the Brewer
vote, Stone's in trouble. Expect Stone, like Levar,
to squeak to another term.
41st
Ward: As usual, voters in this Far Northwest Side
ward are snoozing through another aldermanic race.
Alderman Brian Doherty, the City Council's only
Republican who was first elected in 1991, faces a
trio of candidates who have run desultory
campaigns: Mike Hannon, Andy DeVito and Don
Markham. Doherty was re-elected in 2003 with
10,777 votes (73 percent of the votes cast), in a
turnout of 14,788; Daley got only 12,129 votes in
the ward.
There
is no groundswell of fatigue with Doherty. The
ward contains hundreds of city police and
firefighters and many city workers and union
members. Doherty has differed with Daley on budget
issues, but the mayor is not working to unseat
him. Doherty will again top Daley's vote in the
ward, winning with 68 percent of the vote.
32nd
Ward: Alderman Ted Matlak looks like this year's
"Dead Man Walking." His principal
opponent, Scott Waguespack, has made the race a
referendum on Matlak in the Wicker Park/Bucktown/South
Lakeview ward. Waguespack is blasting Matlak for
his poor communication, sneaky spot zoning and
lack of ward services. In addition, unlike the
situation in the outlying wards, where an
anti-Daley posture would be deleterious to his
campaign, Waguespack is running as a reformer who
pledges not to be a Daley stooge in the City
Council. Also running is attorney Catherine
Zaryczny.
Once
a Polish and Ukrainian ethnic bastion, the ward
has exploded with teardowns, $500,000
condominiums, $1 million townhomes and $1.5
million "McMansions." The new residents
don't want their alderman to be just a
housekeeper; they want an articulate alderman who
will give them input on critical ward issues. That
means: No Matlak. Terry Gabinski was the ward's
alderman from 1968 to 1999, and he still is the
Democratic committeeman.
Matlak
was first elected in 1999, with 56 percent of the
vote, and he was re-elected in 2003 with 74
percent. In both contests, out-of-ward city
workers under the supervision of since-convicted
city officials Don Tomczak and Dan Katalinic
flooded the ward. Not this year. Matlak has few
precinct workers. My prediction: In a turnout of
10,500, Waguespack will win with 55 percent of the
vote, with Matlak barely cracking 40 percent.
39th
Ward: In this Sauganash/Mayfair/Albany Park ward,
independent Chris Belz is trying to replicate
Waguespack's strategy, running as a
"reformer" and castigating
"corruption" in City Hall. But Alderman
Marge Laurino, who was first elected in 1995, is
quite popular, as is Daley. Laurino was unopposed
in 2003, and she won with 61 percent of the vote
in 1999.
My
prediction: Belz works for Dorothy Brown in the
Circuit Court clerk's office, but he is not
endorsing her for mayor. Daley got 7,229 votes in
the ward in 2003, and Laurino got 7,131. In a
turnout of just under 7,000, Laurino will win with
65 percent of the vote.
47th
Ward: Gene Schulter has been the alderman of this
Ravenswood/Lincoln Square ward since 1975, and the
ward has been undergoing enormous demographic
change. But, unlike in the 50th and 32nd wards,
Schulter is secure. He won in 2003 won with 64
percent of the vote, getting 7,714 votes in a
turnout of 12,033 and beating a foe backed by
then-committeeman Ed Kelly. Schulter became the
ward's Democratic committeeman in 2004.
My
prediction: Schulter faces funeral home director
Marty Cooney, and he will win with 69 percent of
the vote.
36th
Ward: Bill Banks has been the ward's alderman
since 1983, and he had no opposition in 1995, 1999
and 2003. This year, firefighter Nick Sposato is
on the ballot. Daley got 9,860 votes in the ward
in 2003, and Banks got 10,141. Sposato is running
on a platform of "change" on the ward
level, but not citywide. My prediction: Banks will
win with about 65 percent of the vote.