Going, going, gone! That cliched baseball phrase aptly describes at least two prominent black Illinois politicians - appointed U.S. Senator Roland Burris and Cook County Board president Todd Stroger, both Democrats.

They got to their current office by questionable means, and they've done their utmost to undermine their credibility. The 2010 primary contests will be a referendum on them. Only by playing the "race card" and facing multiple white opponents can either win.

In northwest suburban Park Ridge, Republican Mayor Howard Frimark is working hard to get re-elected on April 7. But, according to his opponent, Alderman Dave Schmidt, Frimark has "displeased and disappointed" too many voters and made too many enemies. Frimark had hoped to face a liberal Democrat in the nonpartisan mayoral race. Instead, in Schmidt, he's facing a conservative Republican who is shrewdly trying to build an anti-Frimark coalition.

Like Humpty Dumpty, Burris, Stroger and, to a lesser extent, Frimark, are teetering on the wall. Here's an analysis:

U.S. Senator: If, to paraphrase former governor Rod Blagojevich, a Senate seat appointment is "golden," then to run against the Blagojevich appointee is surely a "golden opportunity" -- provided that it's a one-on-one contest.

Burris's disclosure that he had three conversations with the governor's brother and that he rebuffed fund-raising solicitations contradicts earlier sworn testimony and an affidavit. Did he lie? A U.S. senator cannot be impeached, but Burris's contradictions will be fair game in 2010, when he will be painted as the "Senator from Blagojevich."

Exploring a 2010 primary are Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-9). If both run and spend lavishly attacking each other to be the preeminent anti-Burris candidate, they will accomplish the improbable: Renominate Burris and enable a Republican to defeat him. Giannoulias and Burris are from Chicago, and Schakowsky is from Evanston.

Giannoulias is the more formidable candidate, as he has won statewide office. Of Greek descent and with family banking connections, Giannoulias can raise the $5 million it will take to win. Schakowsky, a liberal feminist, has a solid base on the Lakefront and the North Shore.

The bottom line: Though tawdry, tainted or tarnished he may be, Burris's black base will guarantee him at least 30 percent of the statewide primary vote. But he'll also need 20 percent of the white vote. If Giannoulias and Schakowsky both run, they will be battling each other for the other 70 percent of the vote -- the white and Hispanic vote. They'll have to brutally attack and discredit each other, which could make Burris an appealing alternative. If Burris gets 35 to 38 percent of the vote, he could win, but then he'll limp into the election and lose to a credible Republican candidate.

Cook County: Like Burris, Stroger's appointment is clouded. His father, John Stroger, was elected county board president in 1994 and suffered a debilitating stroke just prior to the 2006 primary, in which he narrowly defeated county Commissioner Forrest Claypool. In August of 2006 the elder Stroger resigned his nomination and Todd Stroger, then the 8th Ward alderman, was named his replacement. He beat Republican Tony Peraica in the November election with an unimpressive 53.5 percent of the vote.

The presumption for 2010 was that Stroger would have at least two white opponents: Claypool and county Commissioner Mike Quigley, both vociferous critics. But Quigley is running for Rahm Emanuel's vacant U.S. House seat, and he emphatically said that he will not run for board president in 2010 and that he will support Claypool against Stroger.

In 1994, against two credible white foes, Aurie Pucinski and Maria Pappas, John Stroger was nominated with 47.1 percent of the vote. In 1998, against Cal Sutker, Stroger won with 72 percent of the vote. In 2006, against Claypool, Stroger got 53.5 percent, winning by 41,952 votes.

The outlook: Derided as the "Toddler," Stroger has done little to change his image as an inept, incompetent, tax-raising incumbent. The county's sales tax is now 1.75 percent, and city and suburban white voters wonder where the money is going. The Daley machine surely wants to keep Stroger in office, as do black voters, but Claypool is no Peraica. Make Claypool the early favorite in 2010 -- if he is the only anti-Stroger candidate.

Alderman Toni Preckwinkle (5th) has announced her candidacy, but another black candidate in the primary would only ensure Claypool's victory.

Republicans scent an opportunity in 2010, provided Stroger is renominated. Former Chicago Public Schools chief executive officer Paul Vallas has switched to the Republicans, and state Senator Matt Murphy (R-27) of Palatine, who advocated secession of his township from Cook County after the sales tax hike, are both running. Peraica may take another stab. Like Burris, if Stroger gets re-nominated, he is beatable.

Park Ridge: You can displease some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time, so the question on April 7 is this: Has Frimark displeased at least half of those who will vote this time? "He is like a windsock," said one Park Ridge observer. But what's wrong with that? Politicians who are not windsocks don't last too long.

In 2005 Frimark defeated fellow Alderman Mike Tinaglia with a solid 60.2 percent of the vote. Tinaglia was backed by the city's fledgling Democratic Party, which had won several aldermanic seats in 2003. But Tinaglia and his law firm had been fined $185,000 in 2000 in a federal court case, with the judge ruling that Tinaglia failed to be "truthful and candid." Frimark highlighted this "character issue" in several mailings, and Tinaglia's support collapsed. Still, Democrats seized a 9-5 majority on the Park Ridge City Council and promptly stripped the incoming mayor of many of his powers, which induced a surge of outrage benefiting Frimark.

However, in a political master stroke, Frimark put a referendum on the 2006 ballot to reduce the council's size from 14 to seven, with one alderman per ward. It passed, and in 2007 pro-Frimark candidates won in six of seven wards, including Schmidt in the 1st Ward, which is near the Park Ridge Country Club.

Chicago's annual budget is $6 billion, and the mayor controls millions of dollars in contracts and thousands of jobs -- in short, a political machine. Not so in Park Ridge, which is run by a city manager, with all jobs being civil service, with a $51 million budget and with the mayor and aldermen serving on a part-time basis.

Frimark is not powerful, and he has no political machine. Park Ridge elections are all about popularity, and Schmidt, a self-professed "Reagan Republican," is trying to paint Frimark as a "failure." The 2009 campaign also is all about arithmetic: Frimark won by 4,889-3,224 in a 2005 turnout of 8,113. There are no aldermanic contests, but there are two advisory referendums on a new police station, which will spur turnout to at least 8,000, perhaps 9,000.

Schmidt's strategists contend that a fifth of Frimark's 2005 vote was anti-Tanaglia and that he alienated another fifth of his base, which would subtract 1,900-plus votes from the mayor. Frimark deems that absurd. He expects to win a second term with 60 percent of the vote.

Just outside Chicago, Park Ridge had a 2000 population of 37,775 residents, of whom 95.3 percent were white. Lacking an industrial base, Park Ridge is renowned for high property taxes -- and for outstanding public schools, low crime, stable property values and good city services. "I've done a good job," Frimark insisted. "(Schmidt's) campaign is just negativity."

The key issues:

On O'Hare noise, Frimark notes that federal authorization for the new airport runway was approved in 1998, with the support of local congressmen. Schmidt contends that incoming flights should be more than 2.5 miles apart and that all three O'Hare runways should be used on "good weather" days. He blasts Frimark for not having noise monitors in place to register decibel count. Frimark counters that he has monitors and that he has secured caps and curfews on flights.

On the Des Plaines casino, Schmidt rips Frimark for "not having a plan in place." Frimark retorts that 17 Illinois cities applied for the casino, that the license for it was granted in October of 2008, and that expects casino revenues to pay costs for police traffic control.

On the police headquarters, the referendum has two choices: spend less than $16.5 million and not relocate or spend more than $16.5 million and buy new land. Schmidt opposes new spending, saying that crime is low and that "we should spend money to alleviate flooding." Frimark says he will abide by the referendum outcome and that bonds, not taxes, will pay for a new facility.

On spending, the Park Ridge budget is $51 million. Frimark said that the city's tax levy has not been increased while he was mayor: "The Uptown development has generated new tax revenues," he said. Schmidt said that Uptown has "been a failure."

On infrastructure, Schmidt blames Frimark for flooding. The mayor said that new sewers on the north side of town "prevented flooding" but that 10-plus inches of rain was unforeseen.

What is foreseen is this: Frimark will win a second term with 55 percent of the vote.