Winds of change -- generational, factional, ideological and legal -- are blowing strongly in a half dozen Chicago wards, and they threaten the re-election of six aldermen who have a combined service of 112 years.

Burt Natarus, age 73, has been the alderman of the Gold Coast 42nd Ward since 1971. In 2003 he faced an ill-financed Republican and won re-election with 56 percent of the vote. This year he faces a young, well financed Democratic political operative, Brendan Reilly. Affluence is widespread in the ward, and the young affluent are gravitating toward Reilly.

Virginia Rugai, age 61, has been the alderman of the Far Southwest Side 19th Ward since 1991. The ward has long been dominated by the "Three Wise Men," Tom Hynes, Jeremiah Joyce and Mike Sheahan, with whom Rugai is allied. In 2003 she faced youthful insurgent John Somerville and won with 56 percent of the vote. Hynes no longer is the ward's Democratic committeeman, and Sheahan no longer is Cook County sheriff. Somerville is running again.

Arenda Troutman, age 49, has been the alderman of the South Side 20th Ward since 1991. She was indicted on bribery charges in January. "Somebody's out to get me," she was quoted as saying. She's cloaking herself in victimhood, and she has weak opposition.

Helen Shiller, age 59, has been the alderman of the rapidly gentrifying Uptown 46th Ward since 1987. For the "progressive" Shiller, economic development is a dirty word. She wants to keep her constituents poor and in apartments, not rich and in upscale townhomes and condos.

Vi Daley, age 64, has been the alderman of the Lincoln Park 43rd Ward since 1999. No relation to the mayor, she was unopposed in 2003, but she faces four opponents in 2007, each appealing to a certain constituency: anti-Daley liberals, Jews, professionals, gays and development opponents. Daley will be forced into a runoff.

Joe Moore, age 48, has been the alderman of the Rogers Park 49th Ward since 1991, and he is the City Council's foremost Daley critic. He gained great notoriety for his ordinance banning the serving of foie gras, which is goose liver. He faces opponents who are less liberal and less ardently anti-Daley.

Here's an analysis:

42nd Ward: Natarus's reputation for being quirky and cantankerous has endeared him to many of the ward's longtime residents, who view him as well meaning and hard-working. But to younger and newer residents, he's a buffoon and an embarrassment.

Natarus opposed the smoking ban in bars and restaurants, which proliferate in the Rush Street area of his ward, but he has sought to ban or regulate weekend dance promoters, loud motorcycles, boom-box radios, street performers, panhandlers, roller bladers, 4 a.m. bars, valet car dumping, parasailers and dung-dropping carriage horses. He opposed Daley's property tax hike to fund Loop improvements, he is a booster of development, and he bemoans the fact that there are too many dogs around. According to the Jan. 1 filing, Natarus had $619,997 in his campaign funds, with roughly $227,500 coming from real estate interests and developers.

In a ward clogged with high-rises and condominiums, precinct work is irrelevant. The key is direct mail. Candidates must bombard voters with mail, with different pieces to specific voter groups. The average household got 12 Natarus mailers in 2003 and will get 15 this year. Natarus spent $333,861 and got 5,540 votes in a ward with 66,000 residents and 37,579 registered voters.

Rich Gordon, the ward's Republican committeeman, ran against Natarus in 2003 and got 4,378 votes, but he couldn't raise big dollars for 2007. The ward has a growing Republican base, as George Bush got 11,696 votes (36.2 percent of the total cast) in 2004. In addition to Reilly, a former staffer for Mike Madigan and an AT&T executive, nightclub owner Mike Libert is running.

My prediction: The ward has high residential turnover and low voter turnout. Chicagoans view their alderman as a glorified housekeeper who keeps their ward neat and tidy. Gold Coast residents have their own housekeepers, and they want an alderman who is an advocate on citywide issues. Reilly has raised $237,207. He needs to identify and turn out 5,000 anti-Natarus voters to win, and he will.

19th Ward: The "Three Wise Men" tried to persuade Rugai, a breast cancer survivor, to retire and let Matt O'Shea, the new Democratic committeeman, take the post. But she is still livid about the nasty 2003 race, which she won 10,701-7,905, and she detests Somerville and wants to beat him again.

The ward, which contains Mount Greenwood, Beverly and Morgan Park, is filled with city and county workers, many Irish American, and is about 20 percent black. The critical issue is economic development: As the rest of the city explodes with new townhouses, condos, replacement housing, Starbucks, Home Depots, wi-fi restaurants and Wal-Marts, the 19th Ward is in a time warp, stuck in the 1990s.

Western Avenue is still a strip of fast-food joints. The old Dominick's at 95th Street has been vacant for 20 years. Said one observer: "People are asking themselves: Why are we being left out?"

The election is a referendum on Rugai. She is a 24/7 alderman, which is what her constituents expect, but they feel uneasy, almost angry. Somerville, from Beverly, is running again, as is Tim Sheehan, a real estate agent. Somerville blames Rugai for the ward's alleged stagnation, and he is getting traction. "She will win, but just barely," said another observer. "O'Shea's working really hard." There is a racial subtext: Somerville is married to a black woman, which cuts both ways.

My prediction: The "Three Wise Men," along with new Sheriff Tom Dart (who lives in the ward), O'Shea and state Representative Kevin Joyce, are calling in all their markers. They admit that this is Rugai's last term. Their plea: Don't elect Somerville and start a ward civil war. Change will come soon.

Rugai will be in a runoff with Somerville, and she win with 52 percent of the vote.

20th Ward: In the black community an indictment can be a badge of honor, particularly if the indicted claims to be a victim of white racism. Or it can be an embarrassment. Troutman, who got 56 percent of the vote in 2003, faces two foes: Willie Cochran, a retired cop, and Ed Chaney, a retired dentist.

My prediction: Troutman will drop under 50 percent on Feb. 27, and she will lose the runoff.

46th Ward: It is difficult to measure the political clout of the "haves" versus the "have nots" in Shiller's ward. In the 2006 election for Cook County Board president, Democrat Todd Stroger beat Republican Tony Peraica in the ward by 13,651-8,261. The ward has 30,044 registered voters, but Democrat John Kerry got 19,042 votes and Bush got 4,750 in 2004. There is a growing "reform" and Republican base vote, which won't go to the alderman. Shiller got 6,240 votes in 2003 (58 percent of the votes cast), winning by a margin of 1,704 votes; in 1999 she got 6,272 votes and won by 1,250 votes (with 55.5 percent of the vote).

My prediction: Shiller's core vote is under 6,000. That means her 2007 foe, James Cappleman, needs a turnout of more than 12,000. That won't happen. Shiller will win again, but just barely.

49th Ward: If ducks and geese could vote, Moore would win in a waddle. But Moore's Rogers Park ward is a hotbed of development, with a diverse mix of condo conversions, new construction, housing renovation and spacious apartments near the lake. The ward has a growing population of singles and gays. But old problems persist: Drug dealing, primarily by Jamaican gangs, especially along the Evanston border, a sluggish commercial district and a parking shortage.

Moore, a protege of Cook County Clerk David Orr, won in 2003 with 55 percent of the vote, getting just 3,693 votes. He won in 1999 with 64 percent, getting 4,122 votes, in 1995 with 69 percent, getting 4,368 votes, and his first term in 1991, getting 5,842 votes (52 percent) in the runoff. His base is shriveling. My prediction: Don Gordon, Jim Ginderske and Chris Adams are running against Moore, with Gordon backed by the ward's business community. Expect a runoff, and expect Daley to make an effort to beat the pesky Moore. But Moore will win.

43rd Ward: A stop sign may be Vi Daley's salvation. She sponsored an ordinance to increase fines for motorists to run stop signs in reaction to a hit-and-run death in her ward. Her four opponents are blasting her for allowing unbridled development in the ward and for supporting the mayor amidst all the city's corruption, but she postures as a protector of the ward.

Her foes are Michele Smith, a former assistant U.S. attorney who is backed by former alderman Marty Oberman, Rachel Goodstein, the head of the Friends of Meigs Field, the group which wanted to keep the airport open; Tim Egan, a hospital administrator and the son-in-law of cosmetics magnate Marilyn Miglin, and political activist and writer Pete Zelchenko. All are maneuvering to finish second.

My prediction: Egan is spending liberally, but his credentials are thin. Smith and Goodstein are splitting the "reform" vote. Zelchenko lacks money. Expect a Daley-Smith runoff, which Smith will win.