Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan is the most dominant figure in state government, but he will not become the reigning "Czar Michalovich" unless his daughter, Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, becomes governor.

For more than 6 years, disgraced and impeached former governor Rod Blagojevich was an annoying, pesky irritant to the Democratic speaker. Now Blagojevich is history, but his replacement, longtime "gadfly" Pat Quinn, looks to be equally as annoying and pesky.

Call it the "Quinn Quandary," or even the "Quinn Quagmire." The Madigans cannot allow Quinn to solidify his grip on the governorship, as that would frustrate Lisa Madigan's 2010 prospects. But Quinn is in a win-win situation as he drives Illinois' political and fiscal agenda.

If Quinn backs large income or sales tax hikes, Madigan's House will be constrained to pass it. The speaker cannot risk creating an "irresponsible" state budget deadlock or a government shutdown and being labeled Illinois' Newt Gingrich. If Quinn backs huge spending cuts, the General Assembly must capitulate, as its members would make Quinn politically bulletproof by raising spending and taxes.

Either way, it's a lose-lose situation for Lisa Madigan. If her daddy helps impose new taxes, she can't criticize Quinn, and if Quinn cuts spending and avoids a tax hike, she can't expect to run and win as the pro-tax candidate.

In a Democratic primary, the core Democratic constituencies -- liberals, labor, teachers -- have no aversion to a tax increase. They want higher state spending. So, within the next month, the prospective players must assume their mantles: For or against tax hikes.

According to projections from Comptroller Dan Hynes, Illinois is at the "precipice of the worst fiscal crisis in the state's history," with a budget deficit of $9 billion. The shortfall for fiscal year 2009, ending June 30, is $4.3 billion. Tax revenues are $1.6 billion lower than anticipated. Sale of the state's 10th casino license netted $525 million less than expected. Medicaid providers aren't being paid, and pensions are underfunded by $1.2 billion.

So what happens? The state budget is $56 billion. The federal stimulus package is supposed to infuse Illinois with $3 billion in fiscal year 2010, but that still means nonpayment of at least $4 billion in previously budgeted funds before June and a budget reduction to less than $50 billion for fiscal year 2010.

The only way to close the gap and maintain spending at the current level is a 1 percentage point increase in the state income tax, which now is 3.0 percent on individuals and 4.5 percent on corporations, or a 2 percentage point increase in the state sales tax. That would have to be done by June, but the revenue would not flow until months later.

Democratic insiders question Quinn's electability. He has won four statewide Democratic primaries and lost three, and he has won three statewide elections and lost one.

Quinn, age 60, has been a contentious and obstreperous political figure for more than 35 years. He was an organizer for anti-Machine gubernatorial candidate Dan Walker in 1972 and got a state job. He was the mastermind behind the 1980 Legislative Cutback Amendment, which reduced the number of members of the Illinois House from 177 to 118. He was elected to the Cook County Board of Tax Appeals (now the Board of Review) in 1982.

Quinn's always been the quintessential quixotic candidate, showing abysmal judgment and often losing. Can he change now?

To assess Quinn's 2010 prospects, it is wise to analyze his past performances:

1986: Democrat Jim Donnewald, a nondescript 22-year state legislator from Downstate Breese, was elected state treasurer 1982 when Democratic incumbent Jerry Cosentino chose to run for secretary of state and lost to Jim Edgar. After an unremarkable term, Donnewald faced Cosentino, Quinn and Lyndon LaRouche supporter Bob Hart in the 1986 Democratic primary. In a turnout of 797,479, Cosentino finished first with 241,006 votes, getting 30.2 percent of the vote, to 235,053 (29.4 percent) for Donnewald and 208,775 (26.2 percent) for Quinn. Quinn finished second in Chicago and the Cook County suburbs, but Cosentino's 18,049-vote margin over Donnewald in Chicago, where he was backed by most committeemen, was critical. Quinn's loss demonstrated bad judgment in running; he could have retained his county post.

1990: After another term as treasurer, Cosentino bone-headedly decided to again run for secretary of state, this time against Lieutenant Governor George Ryan. Cosentino lost by 214,746 votes, getting 46.6 percent of the vote. In the 1990 Democratic primary for treasurer, Quinn faced state Representative Peg Breslin, the slated nominee from Downstate Ottawa. With solid support in Chicago's predominantly black wards, Quinn carried Cook County by 20,662 votes and defeated Breslin statewide by 19,632 votes, amassing 449,442 votes (51.1 percent of the total cast). Quinn walloped Republican Greg Baise in the election by 356,250 votes, getting 55.7 percent of the vote.

1994: Quinn had high visibility as treasurer, establishing a program for low-interest mortgages and broadening state lending. He could have won a second term, but bad judgment again surfaced and he chose to run against Ryan. He faced East Moline state Senator Denny Jacobs and Chicagoan Rose Marie Love in the primary. In a turnout of 909,894, Quinn got 641,897 votes (70.5 percent of the total cast), defeating his foes by 392,568-151,102 in Cook County.

However, in the Republican year of 1994, Quinn lost to Ryan by a stunning 685,515 votes, getting 38.3 percent of the vote. Of the statewide Democratic candidates, Quinn's vote exceeded that of Dawn Clark Netsch (for governor) by 112,779 but was less than the other nominees. Quinn attacked Ryan on issues which would later result in his indictment and conviction, but that didn't resonate in 1994.

1996: When U.S. Senator Paul Simon announced his retirement, Quinn sought the Democratic nomination. His foe was obscure U.S. Representative Dick Durbin, of Springfield. However, Simon and the Chicago Daley Machine coalesced behind Durbin, and Durbin clobbered Quinn by 512,520-233,138, getting 64.9 percent of the vote, with Quinn getting just 29.5 percent in a five-candidate field. Bad judgment again.

1998: With two losses under his belt, Quinn looked like a has-been. He ran for lieutenant governor against the slated Mary Lou Kearns, the Kane County coroner, and lost the primary by just 1,468 votes, getting 389,905 votes (49.9 percent of the total). Quinn, however, won Cook County by 243,556-202,917. The close finish meant his career was not yet over.

2002: With three losses, Quinn wisely decided to run for lieutenant governor again, not for governor. Against black Chicagoan Joyce Washington and Downstater Mike Kelleher, he garnered 471,038 votes (42.1 percent of the total), to 362,902 (32.5 percent) for Washington and 284,549 (25.5 percent) for Kelleher. Bracketed with Blagojevich on the Democratic ticket, Quinn won. This time, good judgment.

2006: Having been elected lieutenant governor, the once-garrulous, anti-establishment, squeaky-clean Quinn uttered nary a word about Blagojevich's "pay-to-play" fund-raising practices. Quinn was unopposed in the 2006 primary, and, again bracketed on the ballot with Blagojevich, he won a second term.

So, to recapitulate, in six contested statewide Democratic primaries, Quinn averaged 399,032 votes per contest, or about 44.8 percent of the total per race. He's now the governor and the hero of the moment. He has enormous visibility, sympathy and public goodwill. He has unquestioned integrity. Compared to his slimy predecessor, Quinn is the proverbial "White Knight."

Only one Democrat can beat him in a primary: Lisa Madigan. But Madigan has won only one primary, in 2002. She faced John Schmidt, a former federal official who postured as an independent, and beat him by 698,250-501,190, with 58.2 percent of the vote. Madigan won Cook County by 424,560-290,378, a margin of 134,182 votes, and carried Chicago by 291,848-163,279. She won the three black-majority congressional districts 154,910-65,326, a margin of 89,584 votes. She posed as a "reformer," and the speaker muscled both black and white Democratic committeemen to back her.

The key in a putative 2010 Quinn-Madigan race is the black vote. So how does Quinn win?

First, he "solves" the fiscal crisis, either by an income tax hike or a spending reduction. If he does it now, voters will accept and forget the pain of the tax hike or special interests will accept and forget the pain of the spending cuts.

Second, he pushes the primary for governor to later in the year, June or September, not Feb. 2, 2010. An early, low-turnout primary benefits Lisa Madigan.

Third, he proposes a package of ethics and campaign fund-raising reforms and makes that the centerpiece of his 2010 campaign. He also refuses to take any donations from state contractors, and he challenges Madigan to do likewise.

And fourth, most importantly, he early embraces a black official as his lieutenant governor running mate. The names being circulated include state legislators James Meeks, James Clayborne, Donne Trotter, Kim Lightford and Karen Yarbrough. Getting a black candidate on his ticket will preempt a black gubernatorial challenge.

If Quinn can build a coalition of liberal whites, blacks and "reformers," he can win. But his real foe is that old nemesis: bad judgment.

Correction: Based on erroneous information, Russ Stewart's column on Feb. 4 incorrectly stated that Ronald Cope, a former Lincolnwood village attorney, is a candidate for mayor. He is a candidate for trustee. Mayor Jerry Turry is unopposed.