Scott
Lee Cohen's sad, short political career merits the
coinage of a new adage concerning Illinois
Democratic politicians: Some of them are fools all
of the time; all of them are fools some of the
time; and, in the 2010 primary for lieutenant
governor, all of them were fools all of the time.
Don't
blame a clueless electorate or a negligent news
media for Cohen's unanticipated victory. There is
plenty of salient stupidity to spread around.
Instead,
blame Mayor Rich Daley's enfeebled Democratic
organization, state Senator Rickey
"Hollywood" Hendon (D-5), state Senator
Terry Link (D-34) and, above all, Illinois House
Speaker Mike Madigan, the state Democratic
chairman.
Hendon
is a black West Side politician. His lifetime
rivalry with and animosity toward fellow black
state Representative Art Turner (D-9) prompted him
to run in the primary. His goal: To ensure
Turner's defeat. Hendon succeeded. Had Hendon won,
the media would now be dissecting him.
As
was demonstrated in the primary, Hendon was the
choice of black voters, not Turner. In retrospect,
it is clear that Turner was perceived as an
"Oreo" cookie politician -- black on the
outside, white on the inside -- foisted on the
black community by white politicians. Turner was
no Harold Washington.
According
to unofficial returns, Cohen had 212,902 votes
(25.9 percent of the total cast), finishing 30,040
votes ahead of Turner, who had 182,432 votes (22.2
percent). Hendon got 113,273 votes (13.8 percent
of the total), almost all emanating from Chicago's
predominantly black wards, and finished third.
State Representative Mike Boland (D-71) of East
Moline finished fourth with 105,551 votes (12.9
percent), followed by electrician Tom Castillo
with 105,056 votes (12.8 percent) and state
Senator Terry Link (D-30) with 99,972 votes (12.2
percent).
The
combined vote for the two black candidates was
295,705, 36 percent of the total -- enough to win.
Had Hendon not run, the bulk of the Hendon vote
would have been cast for Turner, who would have
won by more than 50,000 votes. Turner, a 30-year
legislator and a deputy House majority leader, was
Madigan's anointed candidate. Democratic insiders
wanted a black candidate on the ticket.
But,
surprisingly, Hendon won 19 of 20 black-majority
Chicago wards, getting 68,048 votes (21.9 percent
of the total) citywide, to Turner's 85,605 (27.6
percent). Turner won 11 Chicago wards, including
his home 24th Ward, those of pro-Daley powerhouse
committeeman in the 11th (John Daley), 13th
(Madigan), 14th (Ed Burke) and 19th wards, and
four liberal Lakefront wards (42nd, 43rd, 44th and
48th).
Turner
won 11 townships in the suburbs, including such
liberal areas as Evanston and Oak Park and
majority-black Rich, Bloom, Calumet and Proviso
townships. Hendon won none. Cohen won 16 of 30
townships, including Niles (with 42.5 percent of
the vote), Maine (33.8 percent) and Leyden (30.4
percent).
Also,
blame Link, a 14-year state senator and the Lake
County Democratic chairman, whose inept and
insipid campaign bungled a golden opportunity.
With two black candidates dividing the Cook County
vote, all Link needed was a majority of the
Downstate and Collar County vote. Link said before
the election that he had the support of most
Downstate county chairmen and state legislators.
He finished dead last, getting 16.8 percent of the
Downstate and Collar County vote and just 42.1
percent of the vote in Lake County. Link won one
of Cook County's 30 townships (Wheeling), and four
of Illinois' 102 counties. As a force in state
politics, Link is DOA.
Mostly,
blame the Illinois Democratic Party and the Daley
Chicago "Machine." They didn't deliver.
Turner
was unofficially the "chosen" candidate.
Madigan strong-armed the slating of Pat Quinn for
governor, David Miller for comptroller and Robin
Kelly for treasurer -- the latter two being black.
All won. But Madigan could not get Turner slated.
With an "open" primary, similar to that
for Cook County Board president, the Democratic
bosses figured that committeemen in the
predominantly white wards would push for Turner.
Instead, they ignored the contest.
Cohen
got 37.8 percent of the Chicago vote, carrying 15
of 50 wards, and 28.6 percent of the suburban Cook
County vote, carrying 17 of 30 townships.
On
the Northwest Side, Cohen won a plurality in every
ward, and he ran particularly well in the largely
Jewish West Rogers Park 50th Ward, where he got
47.5 percent of the vote. He got 37.2 percent of
the vote in Dick Mell's 33rd Ward, 38 percent in
Pat O'Connor's 40th Ward, 32.9 percent in P.J.
Cullerton's 38th Ward and 32.8 percent in Marge
Laurino's 39th Ward. He got 32.9 percent in the
41st Ward, 31.5 percent in the 45th Ward, 29.6
percent in the 36th Ward and 28.3 percent in the
47th Ward.
Marching
orders from on high, combined with a dismal
turnout, should have been enough to ease Turner
through. He got 26.8 percent of the vote in the
45th Ward, 19.3 percent in the 36th Ward, 22.9
percent in the 39th Ward, 21 percent in the 38th
Ward, 27.6 percent in the 47th Ward and 23.0
percent in the 41st Ward.
In
the recent past, a Daley/Madigan machine-backed
black candidate (such as John Stroger or Jesse
White) would get a quarter to a third of the white
vote and 90 percent of the black vote and would
win easily. Turner got about 25 percent of the
white ethnic vote but not even a third of the
black vote. As soon as Hendon filed, Madigan
should have pulled the plug on Turner and switched
to Link, but the presumption was that blacks would
not vote in November unless they had a bunch of
black candidates on the statewide ticket.
Now
that Cohen has quit, the pressure will be on the
Democrats to replace him with a black politician
-- likely Turner, but definitely not Hendon.
Lastly,
don't blame Democratic liberals, particularly
along Chicago's Lakefront, in Cook County's North
Shore suburbs and in west suburban liberal
enclaves such as Oak Park and Naperville, for
Cohen's victory. Cohen, who is Jewish, got barely
a quarter of the vote in liberal Lakefront wards,
and Turner won in Oak Park and Evanston.
An
aside: Frazzled Democrats and the frenzied news
media deride Cohen as a "pawnbroker,"
the implication being that such a profession is
somehow unsavory and disreputable. Webster's
Dictionary defines it as a "person licensed
to lend money at a rate of interest on an article
or articles of personal property left as
security."
There
is huge risk involved, as more than half the
"distressed" depositors fail to reclaim
their items. Hence, the pawnbroker must unload the
collateral, usually at bargain basement prices.
There is the need for ready cash to buy pawned
merchandise and pay overhead.
If
Cohen could spend more than $2.2 million of his
personal resources, even after a messy divorce, he
must rank as a great American success story.
Unlike bankers, pawnbrokers don't get a government
bailout when they make bad decisions. Unlike auto
dealers, who take pre-owned vehicles in trade and
send them to auction, pawnbrokers have no ready
market for discarded junk. Obviously, Cohen is an
astute business decision maker, but he doesn't
have a clue as to politics.
My
prediction: Being Quinn's running mate is like
being the copilot on a kamikaze plane, but Madigan
will try to muscle Turner into the spot.
Governor:
Quinn can take scant solace from his unofficial
460,376-452,286 triumph, getting 50.4 percent of
the vote and winning by a margin of just 8,090
votes. Given his name recognition and resources,
the outcome is an embarrassment. Quinn has
squandered all the goodwill and benefit of the
doubt accumulated after replacing the disgraced
Rod Blagojevich.
The
primary clearly was a referendum on Quinn's
competence, and he almost lost.
Quinn
won seven of 50 Chicago wards, beating Dan Hynes
by 185,283-154,277, getting 54.6 percent of the
vote and winning by a margin of 31,006 votes. The
wards won by Hynes are dominated by the
Daley/Madigan machine: the 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th
and 19th wards on the Southwest Side and the 38th,
45th and 47th wards on the Northwest Side. Hynes
fell below 40 percent in only one white-majority
ward, the 50th.
Quinn
carried Chicago because he ran exceedingly well in
the predominantly black wards, where Hynes' Harold
Washington commercial was supposed to have been
effective. In the 20 black-majority wards, Quinn
won by 87,959-58,466. Quinn won by 23,518-19,059
along the Lakefront and by 35,719-33,759 on the
Northwest Side, a definite indication that his
pro-tax stance will not resonate among
working-class voters in November.
In
the Cook County suburbs, in which the large west
and south black population accounts for a third of
the vote, Quinn won by 118,328-109,357, with 51.9
percent of the vote. In sum, Quinn won Chicago and
Cook County by 39,977 votes but lost Downstate and
the Collar Counties by 31,887 votes.
From
a political perspective, ousting Cohen from the
Democratic ticket aids Quinn, but the governor's
image and reputation are not salvageable. One word
describes Quinn: loser.
Whoever
emerges from the unresolved Republican
gubernatorial primary, be it Bill Brady or Kirk
Dillard, will be favored to be Illinois' next
governor.