The bad news for Cook County Board president John Stroger is that history won't repeat itself in 2006.

Stroger, back in 1994, defeated two formidable candidates, Aurie Pucinski, then clerk of the Circuit Court, and Maria Pappas, then a county commissioner, for the Democratic nomination. That contest was a choice among non-incumbents, between a black candidate backed by Mayor Rich Daley's organization (Stroger), a Lakefront liberal (Pappas) and a white ethnic (Pucinski). At the time of his first nomination, Stroger had been a county commissioner for 24 years.

This year, as he seeks his fourth term, he faces only one foe, County Commissioner Forrest Claypool, and the primary will be a referendum on Stroger's 12-year reign.

The dreadful news for Stroger is that history may repeat itself in 2006.

Stroger won the 1994 primary with 47.1 percent of the vote, largely because of a huge black vote but also supplemented by a sizable vote produced in white wards by committeemen allied with Daley. Stroger got 82.3 percent of the vote in the 20 black-majority wards. In white-majority areas, he got 26.4 percent of the vote on the Northwest Side, 33.4 percent on the Southwest Side, 39.5 percent on the Lakefront and 34.7 percent in the suburbs.

This year Stroger has to improve upon that feat. He has to improve his performance level among black voters to 90 percent, and he has to nudge his white vote upwards by at least 5 percent -- to 33 percent on the Northwest Side, to 38 percent on the Southwest Side, to 42 percent on the Lakefront and to 36 percent in the suburbs. As of now, that won't happen. Stroger may again fail to win a majority of the vote, and this time, if he doesn't, he loses.

And the abominable news for Stroger is City Hall's political "meltdown."

Besieged by the Hired Truck Program scandals, the mayor's vaunted ground game -- his legion of city and county employees who labor in the precincts for Daley-backed candidates -- is in danger of evaporation. Without Daley's troops in the white wards, Stroger is in dire trouble. To win, Stroger must play the "race card" in the black wards, namely, claim that if Claypool, who is white, beats him, it will be a huge setback for black empowerment. And he must have the mayor play the "Daley card" in the white wards, namely, claim that Stroger is his guy and that if Stroger loses, it will be the beginning of the end of the Daley Administration.

A key player for Stroger is U.S. Senator Barack Obama, the state's most popular black office holder, who has been traipsing about the country bemoaning the Republicans' "culture of corruption" in Washington, D.C. Obama, a Chicagoan, has been hypocritically silent about Chicago's festering "culture of corruption." Stroger will need a forceful Obama endorsement to cement his support among upscale blacks and white independents. Interestingly, in 2004 Stroger endorsed Dan Hynes in the Senate primary, while Claypool endorsed Obama.

Claypool has the easier task. He must frame the primary so that it is all about Stroger and all about the array of scandals, tax hikes and ineptitude that have come to personify county government. "Reform" will be Claypool's refrain, which requires only a simple up-or-down vote: Four more years of Stroger, or boot him out (and put Claypool in).

      Stroger's problems were confirmed in a January poll taken by the Glengariff Group, which showed him leading Claypool 35-32 percent, with 33 percent of those responding undecided. Those are appalling numbers for a veteran incumbent, particularly since Claypool hasn't begun his media attack blitz.

      Standard polling guideposts paint a bleak picture for the 76-year-old incumbent, who has been one of the mayor's staunchest black supporters. First, any incumbent who polls less than 50 percent in pre-election surveys is in jeopardy. And second, undecided voters usually break heavily for the challenger once they learn more about the challenger. If they supported the incumbent, they wouldn't be undecided.

      If the Glengariff poll is accurate, the Democratic electorate is segmented into approximately equal thirds: pro-Stroger, anti-Stroger and non-Stroger. That means that Stroger has 45 days to unleash a torrent of television ads to persuade white voters that he's done a great job or to go negative on Claypool.

If Stroger goes positive, he has a quandary: If he claims to be a competent manager who has "held the line" on county tax increases, he won't appeal to liberals. The county budget was $2.1 billion when he became board president in 1994. It is now $3.1 billion. Stroger proudly proclaims that there has not been an increase in the county's portion of the property tax bill for 7 years and that he has slashed the county's property tax rate by 40 percent since 1995. But he did raise restaurant, hotel taxes and cigarette taxes.

Conversely, if he hypes expanded county health care and recreational and social services, he won't appeal to conservatives . . . or to reformers. The forest preserves are in squalid condition, and the forest preserve district is packed with slothful employees. "Everywhere you go, there's discarded syringes, condoms, beer cans, liquor bottles and rancid latrines," Claypool said. The ACLU is suing the county for allegedly abusive treatment of youths at the Juvenile Temporary Detention Center, where "riots" occurred in 2004 and 2005. And  $1 billion is being spent annually on four hospitals, Stroger, Cermak, Provident and Oak Forest, that serve only a small slice of the county's populace. But each has a huge budget for public relations, human resources and finance, and each has a highly paid director. "It's a bureaucratic empire. It must be cut," Claypool said.

And there is nothing in Claypool's background to unearth and attack.

By contrast Claypool, age 48, has the perfect code words to appeal to every voter segment: budget reform, property tax reform, health care services reform, juvenile center reform, forest preserve reform. In short, Claypool is perfectly positioned to score a monumental upset in the March 21 primary.

      "There is growing voter revulsion against scandals at all levels of government," Claypool said. "People want reform and accountability. They will no longer tolerate cronyism and favoritism." Claypool, who was once Daley's chief of staff, asserted that a "combustible combination" of issues is congealing a "reform coalition."

The early outlook:

The Stroger-Claypool contest will be an early harbinger of the 2007 mayoral race. Will white committeemen, many of whom also are aldermen or closely allied with their aldermen, put pressure on their precinct workers, and collect outstanding IOUs, to save Stroger's skin? Or will they save their chits for next year, when Daley and the aldermen are up against the wall?

Will black committeemen, and black political activists, surge to Stroger's rescue? After all, if Stroger loses, would that not be the perfect scenario for 2007: that blacks have no seat at the power table, that whites control all the levers, and that it is time for a black politician to reclaim City Hall.

And will independent-minded voters, both in Chicago and the suburbs, view the Stroger-Claypool race as a chance to send a message? With voters bombarded daily with stories of venality and corruption emanating from Washington, Springfield and City Hall, Claypool's candidacy is an opportunity to vote against "as is" politics.

My prediction: "Stroger Fatigue" is a precursor of "Daley Fatigue." Corruption, every day and everywhere, is reaching intolerable proportions. Stroger's vote will wither in the white wards and suburbs, collapse on the Lakefront, and barely hit 75 percent in the black wards. Claypool will score a 55-45 percent win.  SEE VOTE CHART.