There
are the Oscars, the Emmys and a myriad of obscure awards for
performers in various public endeavors. Beginning with 2002, and every
election year hereafter, this column will bestow awards for political
achievement upon local and statewide politicians.
The
award could be called the "Russ Stewart's Analysis and Opinion
and Nadig Newspapers' Political Achievement Award." That's a
mouthful. Or it could be contracted to an acronym: The RSAONNPAA
Award. That's neither rememberable nor catchy. So, in the interest of
brevity, and with the utmost humility, here are the first annual
Illinois "Russ Awards":
The
Best Campaigner Award (Election): The undisputed winner is
Republican state Representative Mike McAuliffe (R-20), who overcame
huge odds to decisively defeat fellow incumbent Bob Bugielski on Nov.
5. Remapped into what was designed to be a Democratic district,
McAuliffe nevertheless triumphed with 54 percent of the vote.
McAuliffe, age 38, was the hungrier and the much more energetic of the
two contenders, despite being outspent by the Democrat. Bugielski
relied on Democratic precinct captains; McAuliffe, beginning last
April, knocked on nearly 10,000 doors and, along with Alderman Brian
Doherty, canvassed every precinct in the 41st Ward. Every day, from 1
p.m. to 7 p.m., McAuliffe worked precincts. Bugielski, by contrast,
showed up only at staged events and did no in-precinct work. In
addition, McAuliffe's mailings eviscerated Bugielski, castigating him
for his tax-hike votes and for living outside the district. Bugielski
never countered, and he never went negative on McAuliffe. McAuliffe
campaigned like he wanted the job. Bugielski, who had health problems,
wanted it handed to him. Voters picked the guy who worked for it. The
outlook: Now that McAuliffe's been elected to his fourth term, and now
that the Democrats have ironclad control of the Illinois House,
there's no reason for the Democrats to try to beat him in the
future.
The
Best Campaigner Award (Primary): Again, there's no dispute.
Democrat Rahm Emanuel is the choice. Utterly unknown at the start of
the primary campaign, Emanuel raised and spent almost $2 million, of
which $1.2 million was allocated to major-media television and radio
buys, with another $500,000 spent on a deluge of direct mailings. With
no significant roots on the Northwest Side, Emanuel, who was a top
White House aide to Bill Clinton, managed to make himself a top
priority for local Democratic committeemen, and his heavy media buy --
which was fueled by a donor list he assembled during his stint in
Washington -- made him well known and, therefore, an easy sell in the
precincts. Emanuel campaigned hard, and he beat runner-up Nancy Kaszak
by 11,058 votes. And he proved, quite conclusively, that the
expenditure of $2 million in a congressional primary virtually
guarantees a victory. The outlook: Emanuel's national fund-raising
contacts make him a major player among Democrats in Washington. In his
second term, Emanuel will likely be chairman of the Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee.
Mr.
Serendipity Award: This award goes to Rod Blagojevich, whose
campaign playbook to win the Illinois governorship reads like a fairy
tale. In hindsight, everybody who could have blocked Blagojevich's
path quite fortuitously got out of the way. Remember Bill Daley? Had
he run, Blagojevich would have lost the primary. Remember Glenn
Poshard, the 1998 nominee? Had he run, Blagojevich wouldn't have
gotten the Downstate votes that keyed his win over Paul Vallas.
Remember Vallas's aversion to flying, which kept him from campaigning
Downstate? Blagojevich won the primary by just 25,469 votes, winning
just 36.5 percent of the vote in a three-man race. And then the
Republicans excoriated Jim Ryan in the primary, softening him up for
the election. Taking nothing away from Blagojevich's extraordinary
talent as a campaigner, and his persistence and energy, the new
governor ran the right race at the right time. That's
serendipity.
Worst
Judgment Award: That is shared by the aforementioned Daley and
Poshard. Had either run for governor, they'd have won.
Worst
Campaign Award: Bugielski takes the prize. His whole premise
was that he would have more precinct workers than McAuliffe. But
workers have to sell a product, and Bugielski was poorly packaged. His
fliers contained the usual litany of platitudes about cutting the
costs of prescription drug, reducing class size and maintaining local
"values." That was scant incentive to vote for him, while
McAuliffe's negative onslaught defined Bugielski as the
"taxman" and gave voters a huge reason to vote against him.
Also, Bugielski did not use McAuliffe's one vulnerability: his support
for the Human Rights Act, which prohibits employer discrimination
against gays and lesbians. Had Bugielski gone negative on McAuliffe
early, he could have deflected McAuliffe's later attacks. But
Bugielski's campaign was run by Alderman Bill Banks (36th), whose
philosophy was that an army of workers can sell any product. McAuliffe
made that product unsalable, and that's why he won.
The
Comeback Award: Pat Quinn, the state's next lieutenant
governor, proved that defeat does not last forever. Quinn lost
statewide primaries in 1986, 1996 and 1998 and a statewide election in
1994; he won once (for treasurer), in 1990. Now he's Blagojevich's
number two, and he will have 4 years to travel the state, stirring up
the Democratic base and looking for another office to run for. The
lieutenant governor's office, historically, has been a springboard to
oblivion. The past two occupants of that office, Bob Kustra and
Corrine Wood, lost primary bids for senator and governor,
respectively. George Ryan was the lieutenant governor under Jim
Thompson (1982-90), but he ran for secretary of state, and that was
his springboard to the governorship. Ditto for Neil Hartigan
(1972-76), who thereafter became state attorney general, but who lost
for governor in 1990. Quinn could run for U.S. senator in 2004. But
Quinn's best option is to just stay put and hope that Blagojevich runs
for president in 2008 and gets elected. Quinn would then ascend to the
governorship.
The
Missing In Action Award: Where have all the Northwest Side's
(and Chicago's) Polish-American politicians gone? Down to defeat,
that's where. Bugielski was the last man standing. He lost on Nov. 5,
as did Aurie Pucinski, who sought an appellate court judgeship. In the
March Democratic primary, Nancy Kaszak lost to Emanuel, Ted Lechowicz
lost his Cook County Board seat, and Alderman Mike Wojcik lost a state
Senate race. Wojcik's ward was dismembered, and his seat will go to a
Hispanic. After Wojcik's departure next year, there won't be a single
Polish-American office holder on the Northwest Side, and City Clerk
Jim Laski, who is an occasional critic of Mayor Daley, may find
himself bounced out of office next February. That would leave U.S.
Representative Bill Lipinski (D-3) as the city's leading -- and only
-- Polish office holder.
The
Most Powerful Illinoisan Award: While Democrats crow about
their statewide sweep, and total control of state government, they
overlook the fact that the most powerful politician in Illinois is
sitting in Washington, not in Springfield. That's U.S. House Speaker
Dennis Hastert, from Downstate Oswego. The party holding the White
House has lost seats in 31 of the 33 midterm elections prior to 2002,
and Republicans lost House seats in 1996, 1998 and 2000. But in 2002
the Republicans gained House seats and took back control of the U.S.
Senate, and much of the credit goes to Hastert, who took over from
Newt Gingrich in 1998. Unlike Gingrich, the low-key Hastert is not a
polarizing figure. He takes care of business. He makes sure Illinois
gets its fair share of pork. He raises millions of dollars for
Republican campaigns. He makes sure that nothing too
"extreme" gets passed. And he has access to the White House
whenever he needs it. That's power. The Republicans have extended
their control of the U.S. House through 2004, a decade-long hegemony.
In 1994, few would have thought that possible. The record this
century, for the Republicans, was 12 years, from 1918 to 1930. If
President George Bush remains popular and wins a comfortable
re-election in 2004, then the Republicans will keep the House and
Hastert will remain as speaker through 2006 and probably beyond.
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