For
those who care, the captivating spectacle of
Democrats viciously fighting Democrats and
Republicans viciously fighting Republicans will
provide enthralling, if not riveting,
entertainment throughout the next 2 years.
In
Maine Township, encompassing suburban Park Ridge
and Des Plaines and parts of Niles, Glenview and
Mount Prospect, a historical anomaly is set to
occur: According to township officials, for the
first time in the township's recent history, at
least dating back to the 1920s, a Republican
primary -- as opposed to a party caucus -- will be
held to nominate candidates for township office in
2005, with the featured contestants being township
Supervisor Bob Dudycz, the brother of former
Northwest Side state senator Walter Dudycz, and
township Republican Committeeman Mark Thompson,
whom Dudycz ousted in the 2001 Republican caucus.
Democrats
hope the Republican fratricide will open the door
to another historical anomaly: A Democratic
take-over of township government, which has not
occurred since the state legislature created the
standard township government structure in the
early 20th Century.
On
the Northwest Side, and especially in the 41st
Ward, Frank Coconate and his Northwest Side
Democratic Organization are preparing to, as
Coconate terms it, "step into the void"
caused by the 2004 defeat of state Representative
Ralph Capparelli, the 41st Ward Democratic
committeeman, and to run candidates for state
senator, state representative, Cook County
commissioner and Cook County Circuit Court judge
in the 10th Judicial Sub-Circuit in 2006, and for
alderman against incumbent Republican Brian
Doherty in 2007.
For
those offices before the voters in 2006, the
organization is planning to hold slatemaking
sessions this August to interview and endorse
candidates. Coconate is planning to run in the
Democratic primary for county commissioner; the
incumbent is Republican Peter Silvestri, the mayor
of Elmwood Park. Coconate is looking for three
other candidates to run on his 2006 primary
ticket, and he's also planning to find a candidate
to oppose Doherty in 2007. "He supported the
mayor's budget," Coconate said. "He must
be held accountable."
Coconate,
a safety specialist in the city Department of
Water Management, has generated considerable
publicity recently with his criticisms of Mayor
Rich Daley and his alleged "anti-union,
anti-worker" policies. "There's 20,000
unhappy city workers," Coconate said.
"They're suffering. And, if given an
opportunity, they will rise up and vote against
the mayor." Coconate held a Halloween rally
at which many city workers showed up masked.
"This
guy is playing with half a deck," sneered one
local Democratic leader. But Coconate, who lost
Democratic primaries for state representative in
2002 and 1998 but was nominated in 2000 (and lost
to Republican incumbent Mike McAuliffe), expects
that Northwest Side city workers will vote for him
in 2006, and that they also will vote against
Daley in 2007, when the mayor's term expires.
Here's
an early look at upcoming political contests:
Maine
Township: It may not be getting more Democratic by
the minute, but voter allegiance is definitely
getting less Republican by the year.
From
a Republican perspective, macro political trends
have been ominous. In 1984 Republican President
Ronald Reagan won the township 43,470-17,753, with
71 percent of the vote and with a margin of 25,717
votes; in 1988 Republican nominee George Bush won
36,733-21,576, getting 62.9 percent of the total
and with a margin of 15,157 votes.
In
1992 Democrat Bill Clinton lost the township by
just 2,563 votes, meaning that the Republican
majority declined tenfold in just three elections.
In 1996 Clinton won the township by 2,473 votes --
the first time since at least the 1940s that a
Democratic presidential candidate triumphed. In
2000 Democrat Al Gore won 24,729-23,196 (51.5
percent), with a margin of 1,533 votes, and in
2004 Democrat John Kerry won 28,213-24,518 (53.5
percent), with a margin of 3,695 votes, more than
double Gore's margin.
So
while Democrats may crow that they're now the
majority, having won the last three presidential
elections, but turnout in the township is erratic.
It was 61,223 in 1984, 58,309 in 1988 and 47,925
in 2000 -- and back up to 52,731 in 2004.
However,
on a micro level -- township elections -- the
Republicans are still dominant. In 2001 Dudycz,
then a township trustee, clobbered Democrat Mike
Yesner for supervisor, winning 9,545-7,075, with
57.4 percent of the vote. Dudycz, in alliance with
Republican Committeeman Bill Darr, dumped
Thompson, then the supervisor, at the 2001
Republican township caucus. In 1997 Thompson won
his second term 12,582-7,466 (62.7 percent); he
won his first term in 1993 9,931-9,304 (51.6
percent). In 1989 Republican Joan Hall won the
supervisor's job 12,746-11,651 (52.2 percent). The
good news for Republicans is that their majority
in supervisor's contests is stable, suffering only
a slight decrease in 2001; the bad news is that
turnout in township races is shriveling, from
24,397 in 1989, to 19,235 in 1993, to 20,048 in
1997 and to 16,620 in 2001. Are Republicans doing
better because Democrats aren't voting? Remember:
Turnout in township elections is but half of that
in U.S. presidential elections.
After
being ignominiously deposed in 2001, Thompson
waged an unanticipated comeback in 2002,
challenging Darr, who had been appointed to
replace Marty Butler as committeeman after
Butler's death in 1998. Darr failed to take
Thompson seriously, and Thompson upset Darr
4,505-4,352, getting 50.8 percent of the vote in a
turnout of 8,857, which can be taken as the base
Republican vote. Note that this is only slightly
less than Bob Dudycz's 2001 vote of 9,545; Dudycz
was closely allied with Darr.
After
Darr's loss, Dudycz removed himself from
involvement in the township party, and he has
since accused Thompson of "running (the
party) into the ground." Thompson then purged
some Dudycz backers, including township highway
commissioner Bob Provenzano, as precinct captains.
Under
state law, an existing or new party can elect to
have either a caucus or primary to select township
or municipal candidates. In the past, both the
township Republicans and Democrats have had a
caucus, by law on the same date at the same time
in different locales, in which anybody who shows
up can vote to chose township candidates, which
include the supervisor, assessor, clerk,
collector, highway commissioner and four trustees.
Having been blindsided in 2001, when Thompson
showed up at the caucus with 50 people and Dudycz
arrived with 251, Thompson has chosen to have a
Republican primary on Feb. 22, 2005.
Dudycz
is seeking a second term, on a slate including all
incumbents but the retiring collector, and
including Trustee Laura Morask, elected as a
Democrat in 2001 but running for re-election as a
Republican. Thompson's slate has already lost two
candidates, as its candidate for assessor failed
to file the required state credentials and its
candidate for collector failed to live in the
township for 1 year.
The
early outlook: In Park Ridge and Des Plaines, the
local parties will hold their caucus and select
their municipal candidates on Jan. 11, as will the
township Democrats. That means that the Feb. 22
Republican primary, open to anybody who wises to
vote, including registered Democrats, will be both
a rarity and an opportunity. Fewer than 6,000
voters likely will participate, and Democrats, if
they so choose, can take a Republican ballot.
But
will Democrats choose the weaker Republican?
Thompson is more liberal than Dudycz, and the
loser likely will boycott the winner in the April
5 election. That gives the Democrats hope. My
prediction: It's all about turnout. Whoever can
find and motivate 4,000 people to vote on Feb. 22
will win. If either Dudycz or Thompson win big,
they'll be tough for any Democrat to beat.
However, if either wins narrowly, with attendant
bitterness, it will be tough for the winner to
beat the Democratic candidate.
Northwest
Side: Capparelli lost his 20th Illinois House
District race to Republican Mike McAuliffe by a
solid 7,944 votes, getting just 40.2 percent of
the vote, and he was walloped in his 41st Ward
base by 5,181 votes, getting just 36.7 percent.
"There is no party in the ward, and the NWDO
is now the Democratic Party," Coconate said.
McAuliffe
faces re-election in 2006, as do state Senator Jim
DeLeo (D-10), Silvestri and at least one judge in
the Northwest Side10th Sub-Circuit. "We will
have a full slate," Coconate said, including
a primary foe for DeLeo.
10th
Sub-Circuit: Judges usually admonish litigants to
tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but
the truth. The Illinois Courts Commission ruled
that Judge Francis Golniewicz lied about his
residency in 1994, when he claimed he lived on the
Northwest Side but actually was residing in Berwyn
with his wife and family. He was elected in 1994
(defeating the writer of this column) and retained
in 2000. On Nov. 15 commission ruled that
Golniewicz "violated judicial canons . . .
and brought judicial office into disrepute"
and ordered him removed from office.
That
means that an election will be held in 2006 for
the "Golniewicz vacancy." Cook County
Jail director Jim McGing, who lost his primary bid
for judge in 2004 to Aurie Pucinski by just 1,277
votes, is set to run again. He may get appointed
to the Golniewicz vacancy, and if that occurs, he
will be the immediate favorite. A flock of other
ambitious lawyers will run, but McGing, who lost a
state Senate race in 1992 and who has since
patiently waited his turn for preferment, will
finally get his due: He will win a judgeship in
2006.