Hispanic politics in Chicago has historically been a three-ring circus.

Puerto Ricans compete with Mexican Americans. Central Americans and South Americans seek a piece of the action. North Siders (largely Puerto Ricans) seek domination over South Siders (Mexican Americans). Liberals (mostly Puerto Ricans) vocally disagree with social conservatives (mostly Mexican Americans). Mayor Rich Daley's Hispanic Democratic Organization seeks to squash all opposition. Mired in the federal Hired Truck investigation, the HDO may be politically neutered. And the anti-HDO forces face competition from the anti-anti-HDO forces.

Going into 2006 and 2007, it's now a 10-ring circus.

With the retirement from Congress of Chicago's numero uno Hispanic politician, U.S. Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-4), chaos reigns. Gutierrez has announced that he will not seek re-election in 2008 and that he is considering a mayoral bid in 2007. A flock of candidates are angling for Gutierrez' seat, and the 2006 Democratic primaries will have a significant impact on the identity of his 2008 congressional successor. They also will serve as a barometer as to the HDO's - and Daley's - clout in the Hispanic community.

Gutierrez broke into politics as a backer of the late Mayor Harold Washington, winning the 26th Ward aldermanic seat in 1986. But he later allied himself with Daley, and the mayor backed him for Congress in 1992. Gutierrez is now the 1st Ward Democratic committeeman.

From a City Hall perspective, Gutierrez' potential mayoral candidacy is nothing less than perfidious. They made him what he is, and they expect gratitude. Daley's strategists expect a 2007 mayoral bid by U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2), and they project that Daley would win. Should Gutierrez run, his 10 to 15 percent share of the vote could force a Daley-Jackson runoff, and the electorate, faced with a change-versus-status-quo choice, could well oust the mayor.

 From a political prospective, Gutierrez' quit-to-run ploy is brilliant. All those seeking his seat in 2008 will back him if he runs for mayor in 2007. If the HDO evaporates by 2007, Daley will get a minimal Hispanic vote. An HDO implosion would solidify Gutierrez' base, but it wouldn't be enough to propel him into a runoff.

Here's a look at developing 2006 Democratic primary contests:

1st Illinois Senate District (South Side, 16th Street to 59th Street and Central Park to Lowe): This is a Mexican-American district. Incumbent Democrat Tony Munoz, an HDO ally, won the 1998 primary, upsetting state Senator Jesus Garcia, a onetime pro-Washington alderman. Munoz' ethics will be an issue in 2006.

Munoz, the 12th Ward Democratic committeeman, is the godfather of one of Angelo Torres' children, and Munoz allegedly helped Torres get the post of director of the city's Hired Truck program, which he held from 1998 to 2003. Torres was convicted in 2005 of taking $56,000 in bribes from 30 companies in the program, and he was sentenced to 2 years in jail. Munoz got more than $35,000 in contributions from Hired Truck beneficiaries. He has not been indicted.

Munoz' 2006 opponents are Ray Frias, the anti-HDO former 12th Ward alderman, and anti-anti-HDO Oscar Torres. Frias had been a pro-Daley alderman from 1995 to 2003, and he was pondering a 2004 primary challenge to Gutierrez. But he was blindsided in the 2003 primary by the HDO, which covertly backed George Cardenas, who topped Frias 2,173-2,121, a margin of 52 votes. A third candidate got 420 votes, necessitating a runoff. Acknowledging his own mistakes, accusing the mayor and HDO of perfidy, and accepting that he couldn't win, Frias conceded.

But now it's payback time. If Frias beats Munoz, he'll be the Mexican-American/South Side/conservative congressional contender in 2008. The early outlook: As long as Oscar Torres stays in the race, dividing the anti-Munoz vote, and as long as Munoz remains unindicted, the incumbent will win.

12th Illinois Senate District (Cicero, Stickney, Berwyn and parts of Chicago): Martin Sandoval, who is Mexican American and an HDO ally, won his seat in 2002. He has, however, been remarkably inept in his political alliances.

Berwyn has a large and growing (38 percent) Hispanic population, and Sandoval and the HDO backed Democrat Mike Woodward in the 2005 mayoral race, as did Gutierrez. But independent Democrat Mike O'Connor, who was supported by anti-HDO Alderman Ricardo Munoz' (22nd) organization, pulled a major upset, defeating Woodward by 5,927-3,773.

Cicero, according to the 2000 census, is nearly 80 percent Hispanic. In 2005 Republican-turned-independent Town President Ramiro Gonzalez was backed by an eclectic array of power brokers, including Ed Vrdolyak and Sandoval. The HDO sent workers on Gonzalez' behalf, but former police chief Larry Dominick upset Gonzalez by 5,564-5,407, a margin of 157 votes.

In March Sandoval faces a primary challenge from Eddie Garza, whose wife is the chief aide to 1st Ward Alderman Manny Flores. Without HDO manpower, Sandoval is vulnerable.

39th Illinois House District: Joe Berrios, who is of Puerto Rican ancestry, is the 31st Ward Democratic committeeman and a powerful commissioner at the Cook County Board of Review, which adjusts tax assessments. He has never been aligned with the HDO. He put his daughter, Toni, in the 39th District seat in 2002. In 2006 she will be opposed by Victor Gonzalez, who is anti-anti-HDO. In 2004 Toni Berrios was opposed by Pedro DeJesus Jr., who had HDO backing, but she clobbered him 6,052-2,836, getting 68.1 percent of the vote.

Democratic State Central Committeeman, 4th U.S. House District: This is a preview of 2008. The incumbent is Tony Munoz, the state senator. His 2006 opponents are pro-HDO Alderman George Cardenas (12th) and anti-HDO Alderman Ricardo Munoz (22nd). With the HDO vote split and diminished, Ricardo Munoz is the favorite.

According to the 2000 census, the 4th District has a 74.5 percent Hispanic majority and is 18.4 percent white. It was designed to elect a Hispanic, and it cobbles together every Hispanic area, taking in all or part of 18 Chicago wards and three suburban townships. It had a 2000 population of 625,941, of whom 321,949 residents were of Mexican descent, 68,722 were of Puerto Rican descent and 47,488 were of Central American or South American descent. Noncitizens were counted in the census, and only about a third of the Mexicans are eligible to vote.

The 4th District is configured like a "C." The North Side tip includes the 26th, 31st and 35th wards and part of the 1st, 30th and 33rd wards (Wicker Park, Humboldt Park and Logan Square), which are heavily Puerto Rican. It snakes west to the DuPage County line and reverts back east, encompassing Cicero and Berwyn, with huge Mexican-American populations, and takes in Chicago's 11th, 12th, 14th, 22nd, 23rd and 25th wards (Little Village, Bridgeport, Brighton Park, South Lawndale, Pilsen, McKinley Park and New City), also Mexican-American areas.

In 2002 Gutierrez was challenged in the primary by Marty Castro, a Mexican-American attorney who attacked Gutierrez for backing Bill Bradley for president in 2000, while Daley was supporting Al Gore. Castro also ripped Gutierrez for his preoccupation with Puerto Rico issues, such as the U.S. Navy using the island of Vieques for target practice, as well as Gutierrez' $275 property tax bill on his $240,000 Bucktown home and the fact that Gutierrez passed only one bill during 10 years in Congress.

But Gutierrez crushed Castro 38,302-11,997, getting 68.2 percent of the vote, with 5,836 (10.4 percent) going to John Holowinski. Gutierrez won the North Side areas by 4-1, but he only barely carried Wicker Park. He won 3-1 in the South Side wards and 6-1 in Cicero and Berwyn. Of the congressman's 38,302 votes, 19,052 came from the North Side wards.

So how does a 2008 primary without Gutierrez play out? Here's the early array of candidates:

*Ricardo Munoz, the 40-year-old 22nd Ward (Little Village) alderman, first elected in 1995. Munoz, who is Mexican American, is a consistent Daley critic. He's using the 2006 race to lay the groundwork for 2008.

*Danny Solis, the 56-year-old 25th Ward (Pilsen) alderman, first appointed by Mayor Daley in 1997 and elected in 1999 and thereafter. Solis the City Council's most exuberant Hispanic Daley supporter, and he will have HDO backing if he runs for Congress.

*Roberto Maldonado, the 55-year-old county commissioner from the 8th District. Maldonado, who is Puerto Rican, was first elected to the County Board in 1994, and he has been re-elected easily in his North Side Puerto Rican-majority district. Maldonado will win again in 2006, and he will have solid Puerto Rican backing in 2008.

*Manny Flores, the 32-year-old 1st Ward alderman, who scored a major upset in 2003 over HDO-backed incumbent Jesse Granato. Flores, an attorney, is Mexican American, but he also appeals to upwardly mobile white and Hispanic voters.

*Frank Avila, an attorney who called the HDO a "criminal enterprise." Avila's father, M. Frank Avila, is a Metropolitan Water Reclamation District commissioner, and Avila is running for that job in the 2006 Democratic primary. If he wins, he'll be a contender for Gutierrez' seat.

The early outlook: If Munoz and Solis (and possibly Frias) split the Mexican-American South Side vote, and if Flores and Avila split the upscale, anti-Daley vote, Maldonado will be Gutierrez' successor.