Comprehension of the factionalized, fractionalized and tumultuous world of Hispanic politics in Chicago requires an understanding of these demographic, cultural and political realities:

First, demographically, Puerto Ricans are dwindling as a percentage of the overall city Hispanic population, while those of Mexican-American ancestry are surging. According to the 2000 census, almost two-thirds of Chicago Hispanics are of Mexican origin, with barely 15 percent Puerto Rican, just under 8 percent Cuban, and the remaining 10 percent having Central and South American heritage.

However, almost half of the Mexicans are non-citizens, and about half of the remainder aren't registered voters. So, in the exceptionally small Hispanic voter pool, Puerto Ricans amount to about 40 percent, equal to the number of Mexicans. In fact, Chicago's most prominent and influential Hispanic politician is U.S. Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-4), a Puerto Rican who aspires to be mayor.

But, a decade from now, if amnesty allows illegal Mexican immigrants to become citizens, when legal immigrants are citizens, and when the American-born children of the legal and illegal Mexican immigrants reach adulthood, Puerto Ricans will become a distinct minority among the Hispanic minority. Chicago will likely have a Hispanic mayor in or after 2011, but it won't be Gutierrez, and it won't be a Puerto Rican; that mayor will be of Mexican heritage.

Second, politically, the dominant power in Chicago Hispanic politics is a non-Hispanic: Mayor Rich Daley. The Hispanic Democratic Organization, run by former Daley aide Victor Reyes and current city official Alfred Sanchez, both Mexican Americans, is dedicated not to the proposition of Hispanic empowerment, but rather to keeping Daley in power, and it has more than a thousand Hispanic city workers at its command. After the 2003 election, the alderman in at least six Hispanic-majority wards will be the HDO's pick.

And third, culturally, despite explosive population growth, voter turnout in Hispanic-majority wards remains anemic. The bulk of Hispanics are just not politicized, and they have no great desire to be. The next governor, Democrat Rod Blagojevich, got a total of 51,671 votes in Chicago's eight Hispanic wards, getting 83 percent of the vote; he got more than that number in five Northwest Side white wards, where he barely averaged 58 percent of the vote. Until Hispanics turn out in greater numbers, they won't be a major factor in elections.

Nine city wards have Hispanic majorities, and in February eight will elect a Hispanic alderman, of which four will be of Mexican descent, four Puerto Rican, and one (Ed Burke in the 14th Ward) white. There are seven Hispanics in the City Council at present. Burke is unopposed for re-election, as is incumbent Ray Suarez in the Puerto Rican-majority 31st Ward on the Near North Side. Here's an analysis of seven contested races:

1st Ward (West Town, parts of south Wicker Park and Ukrainian Village on the Near West Side): Incumbent Jesse Granato has been teetering on the edge of defeat since his initial win in 1995. The ward is gentrifying, and it is becoming more upscale and less Hispanic. Granato, a solid Daley/HDO loyalist who is of Mexican and Italian heritage, won in 1995 by just 234 votes over Victoria Almeida, and, despite the advantages of incumbency, he managed to increase his margin to just 360 votes in 1999, when he beat Cynthia Soto (who is now a state representative). Granato's supporters attribute his 1999 near-loss to a domestic battery charge filed against him by his wife, which was dismissed when his wife failed to testify. But others just view him as ineffectual and uninspiring.

The outlook: Granato faces three foes on Feb. 25 -- assistant Cook County state's attorney Manny Flores (who is Mexican American), city police officer Jay Rodriguez (also Mexican), and Howard Crawford (who is black). Flores has the potential to appeal to the ward's growing white minority, and he will beat Granato if he stays on the ballot. The city has a 2-year residency requirement to run for alderman (versus just 1 year to run for mayor), and Flores doesn't qualify. He has filed a lawsuit to strike down the city statute. If Flores wins the suit, he'll win the seat; otherwise, Granato will be back for his third (and last) term.

12th Ward (East Little Village and Brighton Park on the South Side): Incumbent Ray Frias had a political near-death experience, having been indicted for alleged bribe-taking in the federal "Silver Shovel" probe. But, at his 1998 trial, Frias pleaded entrapment and was found not guilty. Frias, a Mexican American who is a former police officer, an HDO loyalist and the ward's Democratic committeeman, is a longtime rival of Cook County Commissioner Joseph Mario Moreno, who is running for Cicero town president.

According to local sources, Moreno arranged for two allies, Jose Rodriguez and George Cardenas, to file against Frias in order to keep him busy in the 12th Ward and to prevent him from sending his workers into Cicero against Moreno. Also running in the ward are Sergio Lopez and Laura Garcia. The outlook: Frias, first elected in 1995, will win easily, without a runoff.

22nd Ward (West Little Village, South Lawndale, on the Near South Side): Mexican-American incumbent Ricardo Munoz, an ally of former state senator (and aldermanic predecessor) Jesus Garcia, opposes the mayor on many council issues, and he is not backed by the HDO. But the mayor has said that he supports all sitting aldermen. However, Roy Diaz, a water department worker sponsored by Mike Madigan's 13th Ward organization, is the HDO's stealth candidate; he filed a substantial number of signatures. Also running is Ben Martinez. The outlook: If Munoz comes in with less than 50 percent of the vote on Feb. 25, which is possible but not likely, expect the HDO to pour into the ward for Diaz in the April runoff. Munoz looms as 2003's surprise loser.

25th Ward (Near West Side, Pilsen, including the old Italian-American precincts around Taylor-Halsted and the University of Illinois-Chicago): Incumbent Danny Solis, a Mexican American, is the mayor's favorite Hispanic alderman and an HDO poster boy. Solis, a neighborhood organizer, was appointed to the job in 1997 after former alderman Ambrosio Medrano was convicted in the "Silver Shovel" probe. He won easily in 1997 and 1999. Medrano, out of prison, is running again, as is Antonio Zotta and Robert Garza. The outlook: The increasing number of upscale white residents in the ward will stick with Solis, but Medrano remains a sympathetic, if not popular, figure with many Mexicans. Rumors are that Gutierrez is helping Medrano in order to clear Solis out of a future mayoral contest. But the bottom line is that the mayor won't let Solis lose.

26th Ward (West Town): Incumbent Billy Ocasio took Gutierrez's seat in this predominantly Puerto Rican ward in 1993. Ocasio has the mayor's and the HDO's backing, but local banker Elida Cruz cannot be discounted. Jay Feldman also is running. The outlook: Ocasio will win in a landslide.

30th Ward (Near Northwest Side, Cragin, Avondale): This seat, now occupied by Mike Wojcik, was reconfigured to have a Hispanic majority and a Hispanic alderman. But the white voting population is still roughly 40 percent of the ward. All the candidates, however, are Hispanic. The HDO-backed aspirant is Ariel Reboyras, who is Puerto Rican; he also is endorsed by Wojcik. Also running are Joe Pagan, Miguel Sotomayor and Julio Vargas. The outlook: Reboyras will win, but he likely will have to do so in an April runoff.

35th Ward (Logan Square): HDO-backed incumbent Vilma Colom, first elected in 1995, has long been viewed as a creature of Alderman Dick Mell (33rd), Blagojevich's father-in-law, who recruited her and backed her in prior races. Colom, who is Puerto Rican in this Puerto Rican-majority ward, won the 1995 runoff by 1,475 votes, and she won in 1999 by 1,775 votes. The 1999 loser, Rey Colon, is running again in 2003; Colon is a protZgZ of state Senator Miguel del Valle, the most popular Puerto Rican politician in the area and a longtime antagonist of the HDO.

The ward is becoming commercialized, to the dismay of many local residents, but not yet gentrified. Colom filed petitions bearing about 7,000 signatures, but Colon filed even more -- more than 10,000. Something is up. Who's out there working for Colon? The outlook: Colom is not well liked. If the HDO does not send in hundreds of city workers to rescue her, she will lose. Give a narrow edge to Colon.