To simplify the 2003 election for alderman in Chicago's 50 wards, and particularly on the Northwest Side, the following acronyms will suffice to describe the political realities confronting many aldermen and aldermanic candidates: The incumbents aspire to be an AFL - alderman-for-life. The challengers hope to engender a voter outpouring of ABMA - anybody-but-my-alderman.

Now that the county, state and congressional elections on Nov. 5 are over, the real ballgame for Chicago politicians has begun. The filing deadline for alderman, and for the citywide offices of mayor, clerk and treasurer, is Dec. 16. The nonpartisan primary is set for Feb. 25, with a runoff in April if no candidate gets a majority of the vote.

Since candidates may circulate petitions during the 90-day period prior to filing, the local aldermanic fields are taking shape. It takes a minimum of 240 nominating petition signatures to get on the ballot. All the incumbent Northwest Side aldermen, except Mike Wojcik (30th), are seeking re-election and have petitions on the street, but if history is a guide, some will lose.

Those who have worn well, serviced their constituents incessantly, established enduring personal popularity, and become (or are on their way to becoming) a local icon, will win and remain (or become) an AFL. In the category of reigning AFLs are Berny Stone (50th), Pat O'Connor (40th), Dick Mell (33rd) and Bill Banks (36th). Aspiring to that category, and likely soon to join, are Marge Laurino (39th) and Tom Allen (38th).

Those who have antagonized a sizable segment of their ward, or who have not accrued enough goodwill and personal popularity, will lose, as voters opt for ABMA. Those in danger in 2003, and never likely to breathe the rarefied air of an AFL, are Gene Schulter (47th), Brian Doherty (41st) and Pat Levar (45th).

An alderman is a glorified housekeeper. And while the housekeeper can please some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, he or she can't please all of the people all of the time. There's an unending plethora of constituent conflicts. They range from micro-problems such as garbage pick-up, bulk pick-up, tree trimming and removal, parking restrictions, and traffic control and enforcement, which affect single residents or blocks, to macro-problems, such as zoning variances, liquor license issuance and enforcement, control of gangs and rowdiness, and neighborhood revitalization, which affect the whole ward.

A satisfied constituent does not always stay satisfied and vote for the alderman. Something may come along to dissatisfy him. But a dissatisfied constituent stays that way, and is a vote for ABMA. Once an alderman becomes an AFL, the affection and esteem in which he or she is held serves to insulate against gripes and grievances. A classic example was the late Alderman Tony Laurino (39th), who was indicted for padding his City Council payroll with no-show family members and political cronies, but who was an icon and an AFL in his ward. Voters feel happy and secure in having their AFL, and occasional aggravations don't dim their attachment.

But there is a threshold at which dissatisfaction exceeds affection, and that's when ABMA wins. It happened in 1991 in the 41st Ward, when longtime (1973-91) incumbent Roman Pucinski lost to Doherty. Pucinski was well known, and he was once well loved, but by 1991 voters had just had enough of him. Is there a Pucinski among the 2003 crop of incumbents? Here's an early preview:

45th Ward: At the top of the list is Pat Levar, first elected alderman in 1987, who tried to move up and out in 2000, seeking to become clerk of the Circuit Court of Cook County. But Levar failed embarrassingly, finishing a distant second with just 27.5 percent of the vote, behind Democratic primary winner Dorothy Brown, who had 48.4 percent. That defeat snuffed out any of Levar's ambitions for higher office.

In his home ward, Levar beat Brown, who is black, 6,883-1,225 -- a 66.3 share of the vote in a four-candidate field. That was an anemic performance. In 1999, running unopposed for re-election, Levar got 14,199 votes, and in 1995 he got 10,842 votes (68.6 percent) against two foes. The pro-Levar base is dwindling. After 16 years, has dissatisfaction with Levar reached critical mass?

The 2003 field in the ward includes Chicago police officer Mike Lappe, a 22-year veteran who currently is a 16th District neighborhood relations officer. Lappe has a personal story to tell: In 1988 he was shot in the throat while on assignment and suffered a spinal cord injury, from which he still bears the effects. The large number of police officers who reside in the ward give Lappe a natural base.

The second credible candidate is Pete Conway, a financial advisor and former president of the Jefferson Park Neighborhood Association. Conway believes that Levar has become a City Hall insider and that he is no longer responsive to local residents' needs. Said Conway: "People are dissatisfied about the way the ward is being managed and developed. Levar is a politician, not a public servant. It's time for a change." In particular, he faults Levar for not supporting the creation of a zoning advisory council.

Other candidates may file. But the rule of thumb is this: If an incumbent can't win a majority in the primary, he's usually toast in the runoff. Pucinski was the most recent example. But there are a few notable exceptions, such as Tom Cullerton (38th), who won runoffs in 1987 and 1991, and Ed Fifielski (45th), who won in 1975. Generally, those who vote against the incumbent in the first contest do so again in the runoff -- the old ABMA theory at work.

Conway has already hired a professional staff, and he has committed himself to raising and spending more than $100,000 to win the job; he'll begin at around 20 percent of the vote. As a hero cop, Lappe has great potential, and he likely will get at least 25 percent of the vote. The key is to keep Levar under the magic 50 percent and force a runoff. At this early date, that looks probable.

41st Ward: Doherty, first elected in 1991, used the old ABMA against Pucinski. In an eight-candidate field, Doherty got 6,758 votes (31 percent), to Pucinski's 9,181 (42 percent), in a turnout of 22,034. In the runoff, Doherty won 13,782-11,698, a 53 percent share in a turnout of 25,480, with almost all the primary's non-Pucinski voters opting for him. Doherty, the City Council's only Republican, was easily re-elected in both 1995 and 1999. In the council, he has been generally supportive of Mayor Rich Daley.

But a lot of 41st Ward Democrats are eyeing Doherty's job, and the alderman immersed himself in a local political quagmire when he managed the campaign of state Representative Mike McAuliffe (R-20), thereby infuriating a lot of Democratic heavyweights, including Alderman Bill Banks (36th) and state Representative Ralph Capparelli (D-15), the ward's Democratic committeeman. Doherty outspokenly campaigned for both McAuliffe and County Commissioner Pete Silvestri.

Poised to run against Doherty in 2003 are John Malatesta, a long-time city official who will be backed by Banks and Capparelli, Wayne Dembowski, a Chicago police officer, Mike Marzullo, a city worker, and Gloria Jean Sykes, a writer.

Doherty's greatest asset is that an aura of vulnerability has not yet attached itself to him, as it did to Pucinski in late 1990. His greatest liability is that he has not become a much-loved political institution. Against the current field, Doherty has a shot at getting 50 percent of the vote in February and winning his fourth term. But if two or three more candidates file, and the field tops out at eight or nine as it did in 1991, then the ABMA vote will be in the majority, and that would force him into a runoff, which he likely would lose.

47th Ward: Schulter has been an alderman since 1975, but he has yet to consolidate his political base. He lost his 2000 bid to oust Democratic Committeeman Ed Kelly, and now Kelly is returning the favor. "I am interviewing candidates to run against him (Schulter)," Kelly said. "We will beat him." One announced candidate is attorney Jack Lydon, who is seeking Kelly's support. Schulter will never be AFL until he ousts Kelly, and that battle won't occur until 2004. But first, he must win convincingly in 2003.

In other developing races, Wojcik has opted not to challenge Allen in the 38th Ward; Chicago police officer Chester Hornowski will run against Allen. In the 39th Ward, retired police officer Bob Klich is circulating petitions to run against Laurino. In the 50th Ward, city official Tom Morris will file against Stone, as will police officer Maureen Hartford. And in the new Hispanic-majority 30th Ward, Wojcik will not fight to keep his job. Instead, he has endorsed Ariel Reboyras for the job. At least a half dozen other Hispanic candidates will run, with a runoff a certainty.