Republicans in Illinois, particularly in suburban congressional districts, are unable to distinguish between learning from their mistakes and learning not to repeat them.

That pernicious trait is already evident in several area congressional races, where it's deja vu in the Feb. 2 primary.

After the 2002 remap, the Republicans had a 10-9 majority among Illinois' 19-member House delegation. They have since squandered their grasp on three habitually Republican Collar County seats, reducing themselves to a 7-12 minority, and they could blow Mark Kirk's North Shore 10th District in 2010.

Nationally, the Republicans need to win 41 seats to regain the majority in the U.S. House, which they held from 1995 to 2006. That won't happen. But an anti-Obama wave, fueled by revulsion toward the health care "reform" measure and lingering economic doldrums, could endanger at least three Illinois Democratic incumbents: Melissa Bean (D-8), Bill Foster (D-14) and Debbie Halvorson (D-11).

But Republicans must learn these lessons:

First, don't nominate extreme, unelectable conservatives. The classic instance was Jim Oberweis in the 14th U.S. House District. Angry, abrasive, self-righteous and utterly without charm, Oberweis lost a special 2008 election to Foster in a district held by former House speaker Denny Hastert for 22 years.

Second, don't nominate rich white men who haven't a clue. The classic instance was Marty Ozinga, a south suburban cement company magnate who was supposed to self-fund his campaign against Halvorson in a Joliet-area district, an open Republican seat. Ozinga spent $2 million, to Halvorson's $2.2 million, but lost in 2008 by 76,044 votes, getting just 34 percent of the vote.

Third, don't back party insiders who have lost touch. In Bean's McHenry-Lake County district, complacent 35-year incumbent Republican Phil Crane spent more time drinking beer than cultivating his constituents. Bean upset him in 2004.

Fourth, find a candidate who "fits" the district, which means having appeal beyond the Republican base. In 2000, after John Porter (R-10) retired, the Republicans had a contentious 11-candidate primary, with Kirk beating a gaggle of conservatives, amassing just 31.4 percent of the vote. Any Republican but Kirk would have lost the seat.

Democrats Bean, Foster and Halvorson all had appeal beyond their party's base. Republicans Oberweis and Ozinga didn't.

Fifth, nominate a proven past winner (or even a credible loser) with campaign skills and an organization in place. In 2008, instead of three-time statewide loser Oberweis, Republicans could have nominated Chris Lauzen, a veteran state senator. Halvorson was a 12-year state senator. Bean had lost narrowly to Crane in 2002.

And, lastly, there's the "satisfy the base" argument: If the Republicans don't nominate a staunch conservative, the "base" will be unmotivated and won't turn out, and a loss will result. That premise was validated in the recent special election in New York's Upstate 23rd District. Republican insiders chose DeDe Scozzafava, a liberal, pro-abortion rights, pro-gay rights state legislator to run for the vacant seat. Activist conservatives rebelled and supported the Conservative Party nominee, and a Democrat won the seat.

Yet, even in most suburban districts, the Republican base is not more than 40 percent. To win, a Republican needs a quarter of the independent and Democratic vote.

Here's an early analysis of key races:

10th District (North Shore and east Lake County): Kirk won the upscale district in 2000, and he withstood a blistering Democratic assault in 2008, winning by 14,802 votes, with 53 percent of the vote, after spending $5.5 million. Democrat Dan Seals tried to paint Kirk as a George Bush toady and spent $3.6 million. Barack Obama won 61 percent of the vote in the district. Kirk ran 39,047 votes ahead of John McCain, and Seals ran 42,895 votes behind Obama.

 In 2006 Seals lost to Kirk by 13,651 votes, with 46.6 percent of the vote, spending $1.9 million. Clearly, Seals is unelectable and Kirk is unbeatable.

But Kirk is seeking the Republicans' U.S. Senate nomination in 2010, and the top-tier Republican field includes state Representative Liz Coulson (R-17) of Glenview, wealthy businessmen Bob Dold of Kenilworth and Dick Green of Winnetka, and attorney Bill Cadigan of Winnetka. Also running are Patricia Bird, Paul Hamann and Arie Friedman.

Republican political operatives in Washington boomed Coulson, a liberal like Kirk on social issues, as the most electable candidate. She's been a state representative since 1996, but she lacks a viable precinct operation, she raised only $178,000 in the last quarter, and she is viewed as a "RINO" (Republican in Name Only). She elicits no enthusiasm, and she is Illinois' DeDe Scozzafava -- an Obama Republican.

The 2010 Republican turnout in the 10th District will be upwards of 40,000, and the momentum is with Dold, a charismatic and articulate small businessman with roots in the district, who is positioning himself as a fiscal conservative and eschewing social issues. Green and Cadigan are getting no traction.

The outlook: Coulson's base is not more than 30 to 35 percent. The Republican turnout in her Glenview district was under 5,000 in 2006. A lot of women will back her, but to win, as Kirk did in 2000, Coulson needs the rich guys and right wingers to equally fracture the non-Coulson vote. My prediction: Dold is surging. He will win with 40 percent of the vote, to Coulson's 33 percent.

8th District (western Lake County, east McHenry County, Schaumburg and Palatine in Cook County): Bean lost by 24,649 votes in 2002, won by 9,191 votes in 2004, won by 12,635 votes in 2006, and won by 63,363 votes in 2008. Is she now entrenched?

She voted to repeal the estate tax, reduce the capital gains tax, extend the Patriot Act, oppose Iraq troop withdrawal, and support the Obama $700 billion bailout. As shown in the adjoining vote chart, she backed "Obamacare," supported cap and trade legislation, war funding and the $3.55 trillion budget, and opposed closing the Guantanamo terrorist prison. Bean cannot be isolated as a liberal, but she can be tied to Obama.

In 2008 Bean got 179,444 votes (61 percent of the votes cast), running slightly ahead of Obama's 170,333 (56 percent of the vote) in the district. If Obama's base collapses, so, too, will Bean's.

The area's Republican political establishment is coalescing around Long Grove Mayor Maria Rodriguez. She faces five white businessmen, Dirk Beveridge, Chris Geissler, John Dawson, Greg Jacobs and Joe Walsh. Beveridge, of Barrington, seems to have broken out of the pack. My prediction: Beveridge will win.

14th District (Kane, Kendall, DeKalb, Lee and west DuPage counties): George Bush won the district with 55 percent of the vote in 2004, but Obama won it with 55 percent in 2008. Foster, an obscure businessman, upset Oberweis by 5,025 votes in the March special election but trounced him by 49,751 votes in the general election. Foster's November vote (185,404) reflected Obama's (181,329). Foster backed "Obamacare" and war funding, but he opposed the budget and Gitmo closure.

Republican insiders are backing Ethan Hastert, the former speaker's son, while movement conservatives, including 2008 loser Lauzen, are behind state Senator Randy Hultgren of Winfield, whose base is in DuPage County.

The outlook: Foster initially won as the "change" candidate. If Obama's popularity tanks in 2010, he is in jeopardy. Hultgren is the more electable Republican.

11th District (Will, Kankakee, Grundy, LaSalle, Bureau and McLean counties): 14-year Republican incumbent Jerry Weller took a hike in 2008, and the party had no obvious successor. Halvorson, of Crete, the Senate majority leader, had an imposing political and financial base, but her vote (185,652) was buoyed by the Obama vote (175,808) -- a pro-change, anti-Republican wave.

Halvorson backed "Obamacare" and supported war funding.

In 2010 the likely Republican nominee will be Adam Kinzinger of Manteno, a former McLean county commissioner. Thus far he has raised $242,000, to Halvorson's $707,000. The outlook: Halvorson's 58 percent win was an aberration. This is a marginal district. Kinzinger is not Ozinga. Halvorson can be beaten.

Also included in the adjoining vote chart are Chicago Democrats Mike Quigley (D-5), Jan Schakowsky (D-9) and Luis Gutierrez (D-4) and Republican Peter Roskam (R-6) of Wheaton.