Lest Democrats gloat about Illinois being a "Blue" (Democratic) state, the Nov. 2 election results only partially validate that assertion. More accurately, Illinois is more of an "Aqua" state, which means mostly Democratic but not monolithically or prohibitively so.

To be sure, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry won the state by a 513,342-vote margin. That's less than Democrat Al Gore's margin of 569,605 votes in 2000, when Ralph Nader was on the state ballot, but it's the same 55 percent share of the vote. Kerry received 2,826,757 votes in a higher turnout, which was 237,731 more votes than Gore got, 485,013 more votes than Bill Clinton got in 1996 and 373,407 more votes than Clinton got in 1992, with Ross Perot on the ballot in 1992 and 1996. Of course, turnout was higher in 2004 than in 1992.

But it must be noted that in 2002 against a weak Republican candidate, Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich won by 252,080 votes (52 percent) -- half of Kerry's margin -- and that Republican Judy Baar Topinka was re-elected as treasurer by 396,965 votes (54.8 percent).

The encouraging news for Republicans is that President George Bush received 2,313,415 votes (45 percent) in Illinois in 2004, 293,994 more votes than he got in 2000, 726,394 than Bob Dole got in 1996, and 579,319 more than his father got in 1992. Bush won 78 of 102 Illinois counties in 2000 and 88 counties in the state in 2004. The spike in Bush's votes came from Downstate, as his vote in the Collar Counties declined. Clearly, rural areas are trending Republican while suburban areas are trending Democratic. Given the fact that Chicago went for Kerry by 621,356 votes, no Republican can win Illinois unless he or she carries Downstate and the suburbs by more than that amount.

On a more mundane level, Illinois Democrats lost state legislative seats. In other "Blue" states where Kerry won handily, such as Minnesota, Oregon and Vermont, Democrats made major legislative pick-ups. But in Illinois, Democrats lost a net of one seat in both the state House and the state Senate.

But, lest Republicans gloat, their Illinois pick-up should have been significantly greater. Going into the 2004 election, Democrats held a 33-26 majority in the Senate and a 66-52 majority in the House. After Nov. 2, the Democrats' majorities declined to 32-27 and 65-53, respectively. Both parties spent monstrous sums to preserve or expand their contingents, but the result for the Republicans was enormously disappointing, as they expected major gains. Here's a look at key Illinois House contests:

92nd District (Peoria suburbs): Incumbent Democrat Ricca Slone of Peoria Heights, a liberal feminist first elected in 1996, has long been a polarizing, Hillary Clinton-like figure. She supports abortion rights and gay rights, and she ran unopposed in 2002. This year the Republican nominee was Aaron Schock, a 23-year-old school board member who ran as a forthright anti-abortion, anti-tax hike, anti-prescription drug importation conservative. Bush beat Kerry in Peoria County by just 94 votes, but he won comfortably in the suburban areas of the county.

Schock came across as likable and energetic. In a campaign generously funded by Springfield Republicans, who sensed an upset, Schock blasted Slone's liberalism, missed votes and support of a teachers' pension system transfer of $4.5 million. Slone, equally well funded by House Speaker Mike Madigan, hammered Schock's "extremism." In a major upset, Schock won by 231 votes. If Schock can hold this seat in the future, expect him to be a statewide Republican candidate in the next decade. His 2004 campaign proved that issues and personality do matter.

108th District (Effingham, Willow Hill and surrounding counties): Democrat Chuck Hartke, first elected in 1984, won another term in 2002 by just 3,662 votes over Republican Dave Reis. Last year Blagojevich appointed Hartke as director of the state Department of Agriculture, and Bill Grunloh was named as his successor. Grunloh is a conservative Democrat, even going so far as to champion the placing of the Ten Commandments in public buildings, but Reis ran again, and the local Bush landslide sank Grunloh. Reis won by a solid 29,201-17,341 margin, getting 63 percent of the total. Given a choice between a conservative Republican and a conservative Democrat, voters opted heavily for the Republican.

101st District (Decatur, Mount Zion): This is a working-class, usually Democratic, area, but Democratic incumbent Bob Flider, appointed to replace Julie Curry when she was named by Blagojevich to be his deputy chief of staff for labor and economy, barely beat Republican Scot English, a former TV anchor, by 2,690 votes (53 percent). Curry was unopposed in 2002. Kerry won both Macon County (by 4,684 votes) and Moultrie County (by 1,638 votes), so Flider ran behind the usual Democratic vote. Expect English to run again in 2006.

62nd District (Antioch, Lake Villa and north central Lake County): Republican Bob Churchill represented the area from 1982 until 1998, when he ran for Illinois secretary of state, losing the Republican primary to Al Salvi by just 41,351 votes (47 percent). Had Churchill won the nomination, he probably would have beaten Jesse White.

Churchill, a conservative, came back to win a newly created seat in 2002, but in 2004 he was opposed by Democrat Sharyn Elman, a cancer survivor, and won by just 3,129 votes (53 percent).

 Elman likely will run for state senator in 2006 in the 31st District, a Waukegan-Zion-Lake Villa-Antioch seat now held by 84-year-old Republican Adeline Jay Geo-Karis, first elected in 1978. Geo-Karis probably will retire, and if she does, Elman will be favored to win the seat. Unless Churchill votes markedly less conservatively on social issues, he will face another tough race in 2006, from Elman or from another credible Democrat.

17th District (Glenview, parts of Skokie and Wilmette): Incumbent Republican Beth Coulson, first elected in 1996, is fiscally conservative but liberal on social issues. In 2002, after the Democratic-designed remap, she was re-elected by 666 votes. This year she faced Skokie Trustee Michele Bromberg, who thought that because she was Jewish and a Democrat, it would be enough to win. It wasn't. In something of an upset, Coulson won a fifth term by 3,849 votes (54 percent).

The Chicago Tribune strongly endorsed Coulson and ran several editorials ripping Bromberg for campaign mailings which claimed that Coulson, because she is a Republican, is somehow anti-abortion and pro-gun because other Republicans, such as Alan Keyes, are. Coulson's margin in Glenview exceeded that of Bromberg's in Skokie, which has a large Jewish vote. For the future, Coulson looks secure.

43rd District (parts of Elgin and Dundee): Incumbent Ruth Munson, a Riverside businesswoman, was appointed to succeed the late Doug Hoeft, a popular Republican who died in 2003. In 2002 Hoeft beat Democrat Mike Noland 10,199-7,153, with 59.8 percent of the vote. Noland ran again in 2004, and Munson won by just 624 votes. Expect this to be a highly competitive race in 2006.

75th District (Watseka, Coal City, Morris and suburban Joliet in Will County): Incumbent Democrat Mary K. O'Brien was elected in this Republican district in 1996 when the Republican incumbent made some sexist comments. O'Brien ran successfully for the Illinois Appellate Court in 2004, resigning in 2003 before the campaign began. Democrat Careen Gordon, a former Will County assistant state's attorney, was appointed as her replacement. The Republican candidate was Morris police chief Doug Hayse.

Republicans thought Hayse was a slam dunk to win, but he proved them wrong. Instead of running on his law-enforcement record, Hayse went on the attack and sent out a mailing accusing Gordon of letting a "dangerous child-sex offender . . . remain free." Unfortunately for Hayse, it was revealed that Gordon had left her job 6 months before the sex offender was set free, and the allegation was bogus. So the concluding issue in the campaign was Hayse's credibility, and Gordon surged to win by just 1,662 votes (52 percent). This was a huge missed -- or, more correctly, bungled -- opportunity for the Republicans.

      79th District (Kankakee, Bradley): Longtime Democratic incumbent Phil Novak resigned in 2003 and was replaced by his protege, Lisa Dugan, who ran the Bradley-Bourbonnais Chamber of Commerce. Dugan barely won her primary, and she faced Republican regional school superintendent Kay Pangle in the election. Dugan looked like a certain loser, but the Illinois Democratic Party sent out a mid-October mailing accusing Pangle of refusing to fire a local high school principal in Kankakee County when it was revealed that he was convicted of a misdemeanor sexual assault of one of his 16-year-old students back in 1989, in another school district.

Pangle claimed that she couldn't fire the principal because the violation occurred in another school district, but the charge resonated, to her detriment. Pangle filed a lawsuit alleging slander and libel, which is still pending. The Nov. 2 results gave Dugan a 2,403-vote win (53 percent). So, unlike Hayse, Dugan's late allegations bore fruit.

24th District (Cicero and Berwyn): Incumbent Republican Frank Aguilar barely bothered to campaign. But Kerry won Cicero Township 9,707-5,093 and Berwyn Township 9,947-5,508. In an upset, the non-campaigning Democrat, Michelle Chavez, who was thought to be a "shill" of Aguilar, meaning a candidate who was supposed to fail to campaign and lose, won 9,981-8,867 (53 percent).

Aguilar may run again in 2006, but Cicero is trending Democratic, making Chavez tough to beat.