The Democrats gained 30 U.S. House seats in 2006 for a 232-203 majority. Despite control and abysmal approval ratings, the Democrats are poised to gain up to 20 more seats in 2008, primarily in the Northeast, where Republicans are reviled and President Bush is toxic.

Illinois, a heavily Democratic blue state, sends nine Republican representatives and 10 Democratic representatives to Washington, but that may change in 2008. Democrats could gain up to four seats, or Republicans could gain one.

Three Downstate Republicans are retiring, and North Shore Representative Mark Kirk (R-10) is vulnerable. Melissa Bean (D-8) will face a big-spending Republican, and she could lose her McHenry County district.

The "Five R's" will dictate the outcomes: reprieve, respite, reprise, regret and reject. Here's the outlook:

1st District (South Side and near south suburbs): The politics of race hasn't changed in this district, which was 65.2 percent black in the 2000 census and which has a growing white population. But racial politics has changed. Incumbent Democrat Bobby Rush, a former Black Panther who has served in Congress since 1993, is an anachronism. He personifies the politics of victimhood, wherein blacks expect an entitlement redressing past discrimination, resulting in a subsistence lifestyle based on government handouts.

But the politics of opportunity, as personified by U.S. Senator Barack Obama, is ascendant. Upscale, ambitious blacks expect to accumulate wealth. They have nothing in common with welfare mothers living in public housing projects or with street gangs. In fact, the Chicago Housing Authority's Taylor, Rockwell and Stateway projects in the district are being razed and their residents are being scattered. Median income in the district is rising.

Rush's district encompasses parts of the gentrifying 2nd Ward (South Loop), 3rd Ward (Bronzeville) and 5th Ward (Hyde Park), most of the 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th and 21st wards on the Near Southwest Side, and parts of the suburbs of Blue Island, Palos Heights, Orland Park and Oak Forest. In 2000 Obama, then a state senator from Hyde Park, ran against Rush and lost by 29,950 votes, getting just 30.4 percent of the vote to 61.1 percent for Rush.

In 1992 Rush, then the 2nd Ward alderman, beat incumbent Charlie Hayes, who succeeded Harold Washington in 1983. Since then Rush's political acumen has been fading and his political base has been collapsing. He ran for mayor in 1999, getting just 28 percent of the vote. He failed to beat his aldermanic successor and onetime protege, Madeline Haithcock, in 1995 and 1999, when his sister ran. He switched and backed Haithcock in 2007, and she lost to Bob Fioretti, a white attorney, with just 33.9 percent of the vote in the runoff. Rush is quitting as 2nd Ward Democratic committeeman.

The 2007 defeat of Dorothy Tillman, a champion of slavery reparations, in the 3rd Ward by union-backed Pat Dowell further demonstrated the diminishing appeal of victimhood.

For 2008 the operative word is "reprieve." Rush will easily repulse Bill "Doc" Walls, who got 8.6 percent of the vote in the 2007 mayoral race. But 2010 will be different. State Senator Kwame Raoul (D-13) of Hyde Park, who succeeded Obama in 2005, aspires to the Illinois Senate leadership, but if he's not on track to succeed Senate President Emil Jones, he will run against Rush in 2010. Also angling to take on Rush is state Representative Ken Dunkin (D-5), who faces erstwhile ally Dowell for 3rd Ward Democratic committeeman.

In the presidential race, some blacks are claiming that Obama is "not black enough," due to his focus on economic issues. In the 1st District, Rush's agenda may make him "too black," and beatable. "He's a street politician," said one local politician of Rush. "Voters may be ready for a penthouse politician."

10th District (North Shore suburbs and east Lake County): Kirk's winning majority declined from 78,275 (64 percent of the total) in 2004 to 13,651 (53 percent) in 2006. Although Kirk is a liberal on social issues such as gun control, abortion and gay rights, he has supported the Bush Administration on Iraq. He is now inching toward supporting a withdrawal timetable, rather than benchmarks.

For 2008 the operative words are "reprise" and "regret." Democrat Dan Seals ran an underdog race in 2006, spending $1.8 million to $3.5 million for Kirk. He's back for a second crack, and Washington Democrats are giving his campaign top priority. But Jay Footlik, a lobbyist and former Clinton White House liaison to the Jewish community, also is running for the Democratic nomination, and therein lies the Democrats' problem.

Both Seals and Footlik are adopting a get-out-of-Iraq-now posture, but Footlik is running as a "friend of Israel" in a district with a large Jewish population. Many out-of-district Jews have already contributed to Footlik, but Seals, who is black, has been endorsed by U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-9) and state Senator Jeff Schoenberg (D-9). The irony is that America's presence in Iraq has diminished terrorist activity in Israel, and Israel's government strongly supports Bush's policy, so being anti-Iraq could be construed as being anti-Israel.

Kirk is a "friend of Israel," and he usually wins 30 to 40 percent of the Jewish vote. Democrats fear, or rather, regret, that Footlik's candidacy will damage Seals, undermine his foreign policy credibility and re-elect Kirk.

8th District (McHenry County and western Lake County): Republicans would like to hang Phil Crane in effigy. They regret his stupidity. Crane was first elected to Congress in 1969, but his sloth and inattentiveness made him vulnerable. In 2002 he beat Bean by 24,649 votes, with 57.4 percent of the total cast, after winning in 2000 by 51,141, with 61 percent of the vote. But the pig-headed Crane refused to get the message and refused to retire in 2004. Bean beat him by 9,191 votes, with 51.7 percent of the votes cast, and she kept her seat in 2006, defeating Republican Dave McSweeney, a wooden candidate who spent $5.1 million, by 12,635 votes, with 50.1 percent of the vote.

Bean faces a primary challenge from anti-war candidate Randi Scheurer and Jon Fornick. The Republican candidate will be self-funding businessman Steve Greenberg. "Moderate Party" candidate Bill Scheurer, who got 5.1 percent of the vote in 2006 on an anti-Iraq platform, is running again as an independent. The outlook: Bean can't be too liberal in this Republican district. If Bill Scheurer creeps up to 10 percent of the vote, Greenberg has a chance to win.

14th District (Fox River Valley, Elgin to Aurora, including DuPage Kane, Kendall, DeKalb and Henry counties): Incumbent Republican Dennis Hastert, the former speaker of the House, is retiring after 21 years. Hastert won by 38,596 votes (59.8 percent of the vote) in 2006, down from a 104,028-vote margin (68.6 percent) in 2004.

The 2008 Republican frontrunner is Jim Oberweis, who lost statewide Republican primaries in 2002, 2004 and 2006. Despite being arrogant, self-righteous, mean-spirited, doctrinaire and viewing all who differ with him as a mortal enemy, Oberweis is one swell guy. He is also exactly the kind of Republican who could lose this seat. He is opposed in the primary by 15-year state Senator Chris Lauzen, a fiscal conservative who has been critical of Hastert and of Washington Republicans' lavish funding of "pork" projects, and by Geneva Mayor Kevin Burns.

The outlook: Dairy magnate Oberweis will spend $2 million and fixate on issues such as immigration, abortion and gay rights. Lauzen, also a social conservative, will stress fiscal issues. Burns will try to portray himself as the most electable. The Democratic field includes businessman Bill Foster, who will self-fund $1 million, attorney Jotham Stein and 2006 loser John Laesch. If Lauzen or Burns win the Republican nomination, they go to Washington; if it's Oberweis, a Democrat can pull an upset. For Republicans, Oberweis means "reject."

3rd District (Southwest Side and adjacent suburbs): Dan Lipinski sits in Congress because of genealogy, not merit or sagacity. The son of longtime (1983 to 2005) U.S. Representative Bill Lipinski, Lipinski was anointed by Democratic committeemen in 2004 when his father decided to retire after the primary but before the election. In the 2006 primary Lipinski got 54 percent of the vote, beating two foes.

Like his father, Lipinski is a social conservative, is anti-abortion, and has been generally supportive of Bush policies in Iraq. Liberal blog sites have been attacking Lipinski, and Mark Pera, a Cook County assistant state's attorney, is running as an anti-Iraq, pro-abortion rights alternative, along with Palos Hills Mayor Jerry Bennett and attorney Jim Capparelli. Pera claims both are "shills," put in the race to split the anti-Lipinski vote. He has raised more than $180,000. The district includes the 11th, 13th, 19th and 23rd wards and the southwestern suburbs.

The outlook: In a city where the offspring of the powerful, like royalty, ascend to their family's throne, young Lipper won't lose. He will get less than half the vote, but Pera will barely crack 40 percent. The operative word is "reprise": Pera must run again in 2010.

6th District (western Cook County suburbs): Republican Peter Roskam is getting a respite. He beat the much-hyped Democrat Tammy Duckworth in 2006 by just 4,810 votes, with 51.4 percent of the total cast. Duckworth is not running again, and Roskam will easily beat Democrat Jill Morgenthaler.