It
was worse than a debacle. It was beyond a
catastrophe. Republican candidates were not just
defeated on Nov. 4, they were annihilated.
There
is no longer a viable Republican Party in Cook
County. The 2008 results were horrific, and the
party's future outlook is horrendous.
Republican
presidential candidate John McCain got 13.7
percent of the Chicago vote, losing all 50 city
wards. In Chicago's 20 black-majority wards,
McCain got an infinitesimal 12,894 votes, or 2.8
percent of the votes cast, compared to Barack
Obama's 453,152 votes -- a veritable "black
tide" reminiscent of the huge Harold
Washington outpourings in the 1980s.
In
some South Side wards the McCain vote verged on
nonexistent. Obama won the 6th Ward by 28,549-168
(with 99.3 percent of the vote), the 8th Ward by
29,218-185 (99.2 percent), the 17th Ward by
23,490-95 (99.3 percent), the 21st Ward by
30,226-171 (99.2 percent), the 34th Ward by
28,001-127 (99.4 percent) and the West Side 24th
Ward by 21,271-125 (99.2 percent).
In
1983 Washington got 459,684 votes in the
predominantly black wards in the mayoral election,
to 31,090 (6.3 percent) for Republican Bernie
Epton. Washington beat Epton citywide by
668,176-619,926, with Epton clobbering Washington
by 588,836-208,492 in the predominantly white and
Hispanic wards. Now, 25 years later, Obama equaled
Washington black base vote and also obliterated
McCain in the white and Hispanic wards by
466,295-134,658. Then, white voters resisted
having a black mayor; now, they embrace a black
president.
In
the city's 11 Hispanic-majority wards, Obama's
race was less important than McCain's party
affiliation: McCain got 14.2 percent of the vote.
McCain got 20.2 percent in the nine Lakefront and
inland upscale wards and 30.8 percent in the four
Southwest Side predominantly white wards.
Even
in the six largely white Northwest Side wards,
where local Democratic organizations exerted
minimal effort on behalf of Obama, McCain got only
30.7 percent of the vote, with his best showing in
the 41st Ward, which Obama won with 55.3 percent
of the vote. Obama carried the 45th Ward with 66.9
percent, the 39th Ward with 72.5 percent, the 36th
Ward with 68.2 percent, the 38th Ward with 71.5
percent and the 40th Ward with 82 percent (see
chart).
Republican
George Bush got 164,930 votes in Chicago in 2000,
and he increased that to 189,538 votes in 2004.
McCain got 145,532 votes in Chicago, fewer than
Bush got 8 years ago. By comparison, Democrat Al
Gore got 769,859 votes in Chicago in 2000, and
John Kerry upped that to 844,796 in 2004. Obama
got 919,447 votes in Chicago, largely due to a
huge black turnout. The citywide Democratic
presidential vote has spiked by nearly 150,000 in
8 years. Quite incredibly, Chicago is becoming
more Democratic.
McCain
got 32.3 percent of the suburban Cook County vote,
losing 27 of 30 townships. In the six heavily
black townships -- Proviso, Bloom, Calumet,
Bremen, Rich and Thornton -- Obama averaged 81.8
percent of the vote. In the white liberal enclaves
of Evanston and Oak Park and in Hispanic-majority
Berwyn and Cicero townships, McCain barely
exceeded 20 percent of the vote. On the North
Shore, in Maine, New Trier, Northfield and Niles
townships, McCain failed to attain 40 percent of
the vote. Notably, McCain lost by 3-2 margins in
the onetime west Republican strongholds of Leyden,
Norwood Park, Schaumburg, Wheeling, Palatine, Elk
Grove and Hanover townships.
McCain
won only the county's three fastest growing and
most affluent townships: Barrington with 56.5
percent of the vote and south suburban Orland and
Lemont, with, respectively, 50.4 percent and 55.7
percent. Bush won five townships in 2004.
Gore
beat Bush by 510,688-369,612 in the suburbs, while
Kerry beat Bush by 594,928-407,867. Obama pounded
McCain by 689,423-334,863, getting 66.6 percent of
the vote. In 8 years the countywide Democratic
presidential vote has spiked by nearly 179,000.
As
recently as the early 1990s, Republicans managed
to win countywide office by amassing at least 66
percent of the suburban vote and one-third of the
Chicago vote. That was the formula for wins in
1986, 1990 and 1992. But now it's the Democrats
who are cresting two-thirds of the suburban vote,
and Republicans can barely crack 15 percent of the
Chicago vote.
Also
drowning in the anti-Republican undertow was Tony
Peraica, the bombastic Republican candidate for
state's attorney. Peraica, a Cook County
commissioner, ran for Cook County Board president
in 2006 and got 46.3 percent of the vote in a
turnout of 1,263,539, losing to Todd Stroger, a
black Democrat of dubious qualifications. Peraica
won 60.4 percent of the suburban vote and 31.5
percent of the Chicago vote -- respectable numbers
for a Republican.
This
year, against Democrat Anita Alvarez, Peraica
ripped alleged racism and incompetence in the
office and promised to battle pervasive corruption
in city and county government. He sought to
position himself as the candidate of
"change" and label Alvarez, the chief
deputy state's attorney, as the candidate of the
status quo. He failed miserably, and he got just
26.4 percent of the vote in a turnout of
1,854,367. Peraica won 34.3 percent of the
suburban vote and 16.1 percent of the city vote.
"It
was simply not a hospitable environment for any
Republican," Peraica said. "Most
(voters) voted for every Democrat for every
office, and the Democrats had the money and
manpower to deliver their 'blame the Republicans'
message." Peraica said he spent about
$350,000, to Alvarez's $2 million.
Peraica
noted that he got 584,568 votes in 2006 and
489,964 votes on Nov. 4 -- a decline of about
100,000 votes. However, whereas Stroger got
679,025 votes in 2006, Alvarez' total exploded to
1,364,403 -- an increase of 685,000 votes, and
roughly double Stroger's tally.
"It
is a day of reckoning for the Republicans,"
Peraica said. "I thought I had a unique
mixture of ideas and issues that appealed to
minorities, women, liberals and suburbanites. I
thought the Republican philosophy of lower taxes,
efficient and smaller government, and ethics and
integrity still had appeal. I was wrong. The party
has no appeal to blacks and Hispanics, and my
outreach was ineffective."
Peraica
got 27,295 votes in the predominantly black wards,
almost double McCain's total of 12,894 votes but
still an anemic 7.1 percent of the votes cast.
Black media had been vocal in denouncing the
state's attorney's role in the Jon Burge police
torture affair and various wrongful prosecutions,
but Alvarez's tie to the office mattered little.
She got 358,462 votes, or nearly 100,000 fewer
than Obama. In the predominantly black suburban
townships where Obama trounced McCain by
224,484-51,183 (with 81.5 percent of the vote),
Alvarez topped Peraica by 197,184-53,436 (with
78.7 percent of the vote).
More
than 125,000 black voters voted for Obama but not
Alvarez. In 2006 Peraica got almost 20 percent of
the black vote, which was an anti-Stroger protest
vote. On Nov. 4 anti-status quo blacks refused to
vote rather than vote for a Republican.
Alvarez,
a career prosecutor who resides in the suburbs,
has never been active in Hispanic politics, but
she caught the anti-Republican wave among
Hispanics. In the 11 wards in Chicago with a large
Hispanic population, Alvarez won 111,213-21,485
(with 83.9 percent of the votes cast), comparable
to Obama's 129,150-21,409 (85.8 percent) pasting
of McCain. Alvarez won the two predominantly
Hispanic suburban townships 21,205-7,841 (with 73
percent of the vote), lagging behind Obama's
24,862-7,111 (77.8 percent) win. Peraica got
almost a third of the Hispanic vote against
Stroger.
Despite
speculation that Hispanic voters might be
reluctant to support a black candidate, it should
be noted that Obama got 21,594 more votes than
Alvarez in Cook County's Hispanic areas.
It
was thought that Peraica was using his 2008 bid to
maintain his visibility and position himself for
another race for county board president. "I'm
considering my options," he said, adding that
no Republican can win in Cook County unless they
have the funds for "massive marketing on
mainstream TV." To be sure, Peraica is still
well known and his loss is more of a party
repudiation than a personal one, but it is now
obvious that his 2006 vote was mostly
anti-Stroger, not pro-Peraica.
Against
a credible Democrat such as Alvarez, Peraica had
no appeal among minorities, liberals or even
ethnic Democrats. If he runs against Stroger in
2010, he might have a chance. Democrat Paul Vallas,
the former Chicago Public Schools chief executive
officer, may switch parties and run in the
Republican primary, as might Republican county
Commissioner Liz Gorman. If Stroger is beaten in
the Democratic primary by Forrest Claypool or Mike
Quigley, who are sitting white commissioners, then
the Republican nomination will be meaningless.
The
good news for the Republicans is that their
situation can't get any worse. Forthcoming
headlines regarding public corruption will concern
Democrats, and those indicted will be Democrats.
Obama may not solve the country's economic
problems. Bush will be a memory. Racial animosity
may again surface.
But
the point is this: Only if Democrats nominate
flawed, inept or ethically challenged candidates
can a Republican win in Cook County -- and maybe
not even then.