Chicago
is renowned as a city where dead people and
fictitious people often vote. Their cosmic,
insatiable impulse to perform their civic duty
overcomes the temporary impediment of burial or
nonexistence.
State
Representative Deb Mell (D-40) is neither dead nor
fictitious, but she cannot vote -- an unfortunate
happenstance which threatens to put her fledgling
political career in the proverbial dumpster.
A
candidate for public or party office need only
fulfill three requirements: Have a pulse, have a
residence and be a "qualified" --
meaning registered -- voter. The latter two must
be in the district where the candidate is running
for office. Those running for legal office must be
licensed attorneys.
Mell,
who is the daughter of influential Alderman Dick
Mell (33rd), is seeking reelection to her second
term in 2010, and she fulfills two of the three
criteria: She has a pulse and she resides in her
Northwest Side district; however, she is not a
registered voter. That's because she moved in 2009
and forgot to re-register at her new address.
Here's
a multiple-choice question: Dick Mell has been an
alderman since 1975. His daughter Patti married
Rod Blagojevich, and Daddy-in-law facilitated
Rod's ascent from state representative to
congressman to governor to national laughingstock
and likely convict. Dick Mell also ejected state
Representative Rich Bradley from his seat in 2008
to make way for his daughter, a gay rights
activist who decided that she wanted to go
Springfield. Deb Mell was raised in a political
family. Her failure to register after moving was:
(a) Inadvertent. (b) Incomprehensible. (c)
Idiotic. (d) Inexplicable. (e) Daddy's fault.
Answer:
All of the above.
Perhaps
the Democratic General Assembly could
retroactively modify the statute. Candidates would
only have to fulfill only two of four
requirements: have a pulse, have a brain, be a
resident and be a voter. In that case, Deb Mell
would zoom onto the ballot, with two of four.
Joe
Laiacona, a Columbia College instructor and an
Albany Park resident, is running for state
representative in 2010 in the 40th District. The
only way he can win is to oust Deb Mell from the
ballot, leaving him unopposed.
According
to Laiacona, Mell resided in an in-district
condominium on Clybourn Avenue when she was
elected in 2008. Under state law, a state
legislator must reside in the district for 2 years
prior to installation. In 2009 Mell moved to a
condominium on Melrose Street, but she failed to
re-register. Mell's nominating petitions and
statement of candidacy, which she filed in
October, list her Melrose address.
"She's
surely a resident, but she's not a voter,"
Laiacona said. "She can't be on the ballot if
she's not a registered voter."
"I'm
quite happy," gushed Laiacona, who said that
he and his election law attorney discovered Mell's
oversight last summer. "We kept it a
secret," he said.
The
Chicago Board of Elections, in its annual purging
process, mails no-forward letters to every city
voter. Mell's registration was purged from
Clybourn in 2009 when the letter was returned.
"We
must follow the law," said Laiacona, with
more than a tinge of sarcasm. The 40th
District, which extends from Argyle Street to
Belmont Avenue, in a crescent between Laramie
Avenue and Damen Avenue, is overwhelmingly
Democratic. If he is nominated, Laiacona will not
necessarily be elected.
Mell
is being defended by Illinois House Speaker Mike
Madigan's election law attorneys. By listing
Melrose on her petitions, she cannot claim
Clybourn as her address. Mell allegedly has
re-registered. Her lawyers undoubtedly will argue
that she is now a resident/voter, that she didn't
have proper notice of her removal from Clybourn,
or that the state statute regarding residency
trumps the "qualified voter" attestation
on the petitions. The case may go all the way to
the Illinois Supreme Court, of which the
Democratic majority is beholden to Madigan, who
helped elected them.
My
prediction: Deb Mell will not be on the ballot.
However,
the "Mell Machine" has options:
They
can run her as a primary write-in candidate,
filing as a write-in by Dec. 2. Democratic turnout
in the 40th District was 9,956 in 2008 and 7,029
in 2006. It will be around 7,000 on Feb. 2. The
district contains all or part of the 1st, 30th,
31st, 33rd, 35th, 38th and 39th wards, for a total
of 63 precincts. In the 2008 primary the unopposed
Deb Mell got 5,433 votes in the 33rd Ward, 1,417
in the 30th and 1,569 in the 39th. Dick Mell
backed Bradley in his Illinois Senate bid, and
Bradley got 3,318 votes in the 33rd Ward, 1,327 in
the 30th, 2,570 in the 35th and 1,271 in the 39th.
With an enormous expenditure of work and money,
generating 4,000 write-in votes for Deb Mell is
doable, but only in conjunction with a vicious
assault on Laiacona.
Like
Deb Mell, Laiacona acknowledges that he is gay,
but he said that he has no "gay agenda."
"I'm
running as a reform-minded, progressive
independent," Laiacona said. He wrote for Gay
Chicago magazine for 17 years, penning a
"Leather Views" column under a
pseudonym. Expect the content of those articles to
be a huge campaign issue.
The
question is: Does Mell have enough time to exploit
it? The primary is only 75 days away. An anti-Laiacona
campaign would be mean and nasty.
A
second option is to divert Democrats into the
Republican primary, where nobody filed. A
write-in, to be nominated, needs 500 votes. The
Republican turnout was under 1,000 in both 2006
and 2008. If Dick Mell engineered a crossover of
600-700 Democrats into the 2010 Republican primary
to write-in Deb Mell, she would win.
The
"Mell Machine" would then have 8 months
to poison voters on Laiacona. Turnout in the 2008
election was 22,607, with the Republican candidate
getting 15.1 percent of the vote, and turnout in
the 2006 election was 13,193, with no Republican
running. Turnout next year will be around 15,000.
If Deb Mell were the Republican candidate, Daddy
Mell would have to deliver about 8,000 controlled
Democratic votes to her. That's doable. In a
one-on-one contest against Laiacona, the issue
would be Laiacona, not the fact that Mell would be
running as a Republican.
And,
thereafter, Deb Mell would caucus with the
Democrats.
A
third option would be to run as an independent. It
takes 500 signatures to run for state
representative as a major party candidate, and it
takes 1,400 to 2,240 signatures to run as an
independent. Anybody who signs nominating
petitions or who votes in the primary is barred
from signing an independent candidate's nominating
petition, which must be filed in June.
The
benefit: The "Mell Machine" would have
plenty of time to personally discredit and
politically disembowel Laiacona. Mell's legion of
workers would have but one priority: Save Deb.
Mell would flood the 40th District with 1,500
workers, who would promise everything to
everybody, ignore every other Democrat on the
ballot and brutalize Laiacona, while Mell would
spend whatever it took to win.
As
baseball legend Yogi Berra once said, it ain't
over until it's over. "Dumb Deb" she may
be, but Daddy Mell may yet concoct a strategy to
save her. Count on this: Even if Mell manages to
get back to Springfield for a second term, her
credibility will be nonexistent. She will be an
object of scorn and ridicule. For a politician,
her "oversight" is inexcusable.
In
other local races:
10th
Illinois Senate District: Contrary to Yogi's
prognostication, it's over. Republican Alderman
Brian Doherty (41st) is the next state senator.
The
Democratic field to succeed incumbent Jim DeLeo in
the heavily Democratic district is desultory and
obscure: Mary Anselmo, John Nocita, Wanda Majcher,
Tom Ryan and John Mulroe. None has the stature of
Doherty.
Electable
Democrats, such as 38th Ward Committeeman Patti Jo
Cullerton and Alderman Tom Allen (38th), declined
to run, but Democratic Senate President John
Cullerton wants to protect his 37-22 majority, and
he reportedly will spend $500,000 to retain
DeLeo's seat. Republicans will spend an equal sum
on Doherty's behalf.
The
Democratic frontrunner is Mulroe, an Edison Park
attorney who lost the 10th Subcircuit Democratic
primary for judge in 2008. Mulroe is backed by
41st Ward Democratic Committeeman Mary O'Connor
and, according to sources, by Cullerton and
Alderman Pat Levar (45th). Anselmo is supported by
36th Ward Democratic Committeeman Bill Banks, the
ward's former alderman.
"They're
trying to divide my base," Doherty said of
Mulroe, who he said was a longtime family friend
who "promised he would not run against
me." Doherty's base is in the 41st Ward and
among Irish-American voters.
The
outlook: Turnout was 21,949 in 2006, when DeLeo
ran unopposed in the primary. It will be closer to
25,000 in 2010. In a four-way race, 8,000 votes
will clinch it. Banks can easily produce 5,000
votes for Anselmo in his ward, but Mulroe can
counter with 8,000 votes in the 41st, 45th and
38th wards. Majcher will have appeal to
Polish-American voters, and Nocita and Ryan have a
base in the 41st Ward. Make Mulroe a slight
favorite.