mathematics of victory for Mitt Romney were
contained in two equations:
The first is V=62%x73%W+40%H+5%B/t-o122million=61
The second is V=GB04/t-o121million=62 million
former means victory equals 62 percent of the
white vote, which must be at least 73 percent of
the total vote, plus 40 percent of the Hispanic
vote and 5 percent of the black vote in a turnout
of 122 million. The latter means get as many votes
as George Bush got in 2004. Romney muffed both
amassed 62,040,606 votes in 2004, the hapless John
McCain amassed 59,948,240 votes in 2008, and in
2012 the even-more-hapless Romney, according to
the latest unofficial tally, got 57,810,407 votes.
That, incredibly, is two million fewer votes than
McCain and 4.2 million fewer votes than Bush.
as incredibly, Barack Obama's tally is 60,652,238
- meaning he got 8,845,977 fewer votes than he
received in 2008, which was 69,498,215. Obama's
2012 vote is just 1.6 million more than Democrat
John Kerry's showing in 2004.
was an election campaign characterized by economic
bleakness and media negativity. Polls indicated
that the president's job disapproval exceeded his
job approval, and more than 60 percent of those
polled thought America was on the "wrong
track." The so-called "Obama
Nation" of 2008 went into hibernation, and 12
million fewer people voted in 2012 than in 2008.
Yet Obama still won, and he took the electoral
vote by a whopping 303-206.
"Obama Nation," represented by the 10.7
million more Obama voters in 2008 than Kerry
voters in 2004, appeared to numerically vanish. In
reality, however, much was simply absorbed into
the 61 million-plus Democratic base. However, the
"Bush/McCain/Romney Nation" is going to
the grave. A Republican cannot win the presidency
with a base of 57 million votes, which appears to
be declining by two million every 4 years.
back to the math: In 2008 white voters comprised
74 percent of the electorate, and McCain got 55
percent of that segment. In 2012 white voters were
down only slightly, to 73 percent, or 87 million
voters. Romney won 61 percent of those votes,
which gave him about 44 percent of the total vote
(53 million). Black voters comprise about 12
percent of the electorate (15 million), Hispanics
10 percent (12 million) and Asians 4 percent (5
got 30 percent of the Hispanic vote, 5 percent of
the black vote and 40 percent of the Asian vote,
which added 5 percent to his 44 percent white
base. In 2004 Bush got 44 percent of the Hispanic
vote. Had Romney equaled Bush's benchmark, he
would have carried Florida and he would have come
closer in Nevada, Colorado and Virginia, but he
still would have lost to Obama. Even if Romney got
half the Hispanic vote, he still would have lost.
reason is simple: In the large cities and
sprawling suburbs of the North, New England, the
Midwest industrial belt and the West Coast, white
voters are predominantly secular and liberal on
social and cultural issues. They are repelled by
the Republican brand. That 39 percent are
sufficiently concentrated to deliver now, and for
the foreseeable future, such states as Florida,
Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado and Iowa. Add
to that Michigan and Pennsylvania, plus hard-core
Democratic states like Illinois, New York and
California, and the presidency looks like a
for the Republicans, the racial "Mississippi
Model" is not applicable to national
elections. In Mississippi, whites are 59 percent
of the population and blacks are 37 percent. In
the Obama-Romney contest, the Republican won
666,150-523,842. Obama took almost all of the
black vote but barely 6 percent of the white vote,
while Romney won 94 percent of the white vote, for
a 55 percent statewide win.
unfortunately for the Republicans, the
haves-versus-have-nots "Texas Model" is
becoming increasingly applicable. Texas'
population is 48 percent white, 36 percent
Hispanic and 12 percent black, but the actual
voting population is about 65 percent white and 22
percent Hispanic. Romney won the state with 57
percent of the vote (4,555,799-3,294,440), getting
75 to 80 percent of the white vote and a third of
the Hispanic vote.
2004 native son Bush got 4,526,917 votes (61
percent of the total), while in 2008 McCain beat
Obama 4,479,328-3,528,633, with 55 percent of the
vote. Romney's vote equaled Bush's, but Obama's
declined by 234,000 votes. As the Hispanic
population continues to surge and older,
conservative whites die, Texas' Republican margins
will dwindle. Without Texas, a Republican cannot
win the presidency.
socially liberal/minority "California
Model" is the Republicans' worst nightmare.
Back in the era of Ronald Reagan, suburbanites and
upscale whites voted solidly Republican; now
they're habitually Democratic. Obama carried
California 5,581,902-3,645,245, with 59 percent of
the vote. The state is just 41 percent white, with
Hispanics comprising 38 percent, Asians 13 percent
and blacks 8 percent. In 2008 Obama got 8,274,473
votes (61 percent of the total), so his 2012
showing was down by almost 2.7 million votes (and
Romney had 1.3 million fewer votes than McCain).
The "Obama Nation" disappeared, but
since half the whites, 75 percent of the Hispanics
and almost all the blacks voted Democratic, the
Republican base is a pathetic 39 percent.
California in 2012 is America in 2040.
topped Romney on Nov. 6 by 2,841,831 votes,
getting 303 electoral votes and carrying 26 states
and the District of Columbia. Obama topped McCain
in 2008 by 9,549,975 votes, winning 365 electoral
votes and carrying 28 states. Only two 2008 Obama
states, Indiana and North Carolina, shifted to
in an election in which both parties spent close
to $3 billion, "no change" was the
winner. An analogy would be the naive but eager
Wall Street investor who buys a "no
lose" stock offering and sees it tank but
refuses to sell. Instead of bailing out and taking
a loss, or blaming the stockbroker (Obama), the
investor blames the past poor management (Bush) of
the company. Obama's 2008 voters didn't want to
bail. Yet the numbers are astounding: Turnout was
down. Many, many 2008 Obama voters didn't show up,
but the Republican vote was lower in 2012 than it
was in 2008, despite all the grousing about the
economy. In short, the white vote is dwindling,
and with it the Republican vote.
look at key states:
Florida, Obama won 4,282,074-4,045,624 in 2008 in
a turnout of 8.3 million. This year Obama
triumphed 4,143,362-4,096,346 in a turnout of 8.2
million. Obama's vote fell by 140,000, but the
Republican vote increased by only 50,000. The
reason is demography: Florida's white population
(61 percent) is declining, while the
pro-Democratic non-Cuban Hispanic and black vote
is increasing. To win in Florida, a Republican
needs 70 percent of the white vote and 35 percent
of the Hispanic vote (mostly Cubans). The East
Coast Jewish vote put Obama over the top.
much-contested Ohio, which is 88 percent white,
Obama won 2,940,044-2,677,820 in 2008 in a turnout
of 5.6 million. This year Obama triumphed
2,686,609-2,586,467 in a turnout of 5.2 million.
Obama's vote fell by more than 350,000, but the
Republican vote was down by 90,000. Obama got the
2004 Kerry vote, but Romney had almost 275,000
fewer votes than Bush got in 2004. Clearly,
Obama's auto industry bailout had an impact.
bellwether Virginia, which is 66 percent white,
Obama won 1,959,532-1,725,005 in 2008 in a turnout
of 3.7 million. This year Obama won
1,885,188-1,772,304 in a turnout of 3.65 million.
Obama's vote fell by about 70,000, and Romney's
was up by 50,000. The "Obama Nation"
didn't disappear. Northern Virginia, especially
the Washington, D.C., suburbs, is very liberal and
very Democratic; they, combined with the 20
percent black vote, saved Obama. He won Virginia
by 234,000 votes in 2008 and by 113,000 votes in
Pennsylvania, which Obama won 3,276,363-2,655,885
in 2008 in a turnout of 5.9 million, the president
won unimpressively, 2,907,448-2,619,583, with 52
percent of the vote. His margin declined from
620,478 votes to 287,865 votes, and his vote total
was down by 368,915. The state is 82 percent white
and only 4 percent Hispanic; rural areas went
heavily for Romney.
Michigan, which Obama won 2,872,579-2,048,639 in
2008 in a turnout of 4.9 million, Obama triumphed
2,490,290-2,097,107 in a turnout of 4.6 million.
Obama's vote fell by nearly 400,000, but the
Republican vote stayed stagnant.
2012 election was no reaffirmation or vindication
of Obama. There will be no "change" in
Obama's second term. The electorate has become
more polarized and partisan, and they voted their
prejudices. The parties' registration and
get-out-the-vote efforts failed. Casual, as
opposed to committed, voters boycotted the
Obama's re-election a "crisis" for the
Republicans? Two acronyms apply: CCCC and HOF. The
first means "cut the conservative cultural
crap." Republicans lost 22 of 35 U.S. Senate
seats, and they lost Missouri and Indiana because
white male candidates made boneheaded comments
about abortion. Opposition to abortion and gay
rights are now vote losers.
second means "Hope Obama Fails." The
Democrats won big in 1948, 1964, 1976 and 1996,
and the Republicans won in 1956, 1972, 1988 and
2004, but they lost the presidency 4 years later.
The Republicans still hold the U.S. House, so they
aren't irrelevant. They just need to avoid being
irresponsible or intractable, or any stance which
can be labeled "extreme."
Republican presidential in 2016 win is not yet