It's called the art of diversionary illusion. It's the ploy of Las Vegas magicians and ambitious politicians. On stage, one must distract the yokels and perfect the trick. In politics, one must appear to be sincerely seeking one office while really lusting after another.

Already, a plethora of disingenuous Illinois politicians are running for office in 2010 with the expectation that they will seek another office in 2011 or soon thereafter. Here's the list:

Democrat Dan Hynes, the current state comptroller, is running for governor to augment his stature and name recognition. He likely will lose to incumbent Pat Quinn, but he's positioning himself to run for Chicago mayor in 2011 should Rich Daley retire. Expect Hynes to focus heavily on state "corruption" and tie Quinn to Rod Blagojevich.

Democrat David Hoffman, Chicago's former inspector general, is running for U.S. senator to acquire visibility and burnish his "reform" image. He could win the primary, but his real goal is to run for mayor in 2011, and he would especially relish a one-on-one contest against Daley.

Democrat Sandi Jackson, the first-term alderman from the South Side 7th Ward and the wife of beleaguered U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2), is running for lieutenant governor so she, too, can run for mayor in 2011. Jesse's serious "ethics" problems, stemming from his alleged involvement in Blagojevich's Senate appointment process, have spawned investigations by the U.S. Attorney's Office and by the U.S. House Office of Congressional Ethics.

Despite her husband's toxicity, Sandi Jackson has an outside chance to win the primary, and if she were Illinois' first black lieutenant governor, she'd be in an enviable position to run for mayor. However, most Democrats expect her to fold her candidacy before the Nov. 2 filing deadline.

Democrat Toni Preckwinkle, the 18-year alderman from Hyde Park, is running for Cook County Board president, posturing as an "independent reformer" and hoping Todd Stroger quits the race. But Preckwinkle is really running to build her name identification, and -- win or lose in 2010 -- she certainly would run for an open mayoral seat.

Democrat Terry O'Brien, president of the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District, is running for Stroger's job. If O'Brien faces three black candidates -- Stroger, Preckwinkle and Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown -- he will win, and if he's the new board president, he'd be the obvious compromise choice for mayor if Daley quit.

Democrat Tom Dart, the county sheriff, was urged by many to run for board president, U.S. senator or statewide office. Popular, scandal-free, youthful (age 47) and the beneficiary of plenty of positive publicity surrounding the Burr Oak cemetery scandal, Dart is seeking reelection with his eye on the big prize: mayor. If Daley quits, Dart will be the first to jump in, and he will have solid support from South Side committeemen, to Hynes' detriment.

Democrat Joe Berrios, the veteran Board of Review commissioner and county party chairman, is running for county assessor, hoping to utilize that choice money-raising post as a base to run for mayor in 2011 or 2015, when Daley retires.

Democrat Lisa Madigan, the state's two-term attorney general, is running for reelection in 2010 for just one reason: she feared losing the governor's race. Beating Quinn would have been difficult and expensive, and an incipient anti-Democratic trend would have doomed her in the election. She'll run for governor in 2014. Or, just possibly, should Daley retire in 2011, the Democratic Establishment, of which her father, Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, is an esteemed member, could draft Lisa Madigan as the least objectionable -- or most electable -- party choice.

Republican Brad Cole, the mayor of Carbondale, is running for lieutenant governor because he really wants to be a state representative. But Dave Luechtefeld (R-58), the area's state senator, won't retire, so Mike Bost (R-115), the area's state representative, can't run for senator and Cole can't run for Bost's seat. Republicans dumped a lot of money into Cole's 2007 reelection bid, when he beat Sheila Simon, the daughter of the late senator.

State Senators Terry Link (D-30) of Lake Bluff, Rickey Hendon (D-5) of the West Side and Matt Murphy (R-27) of Palatine are all running for lieutenant governor for one totally compelling reason: It's a free shot. Their terms run through 2012, so they can make a risk-free bid for the office. If they lose, so what?

And finally, Northwest Side political gadfly Frank Coconate, a nominal Democrat and a persistent Daley critic, is running for Cook County Board president in the Green Party primary. Here's a multiple choice question: He's running because he (a) wants publicity, (b) thinks he can win, (c) is laying the groundwork to run for 41st Ward alderman in 2011, or (d) is goofy? One of the foregoing is incorrect.

In other political developments:

It was, to use a sports analogy, a "Bartman moment." Out of the Olympics, out of the media eye, and maybe out of office. Mayor Daley's ego and sense of optimism, buoyed by President Barack Obama's personal intervention in Copenhagen, was deflated in a moment, flattened like a pancake. Just like the Chicago Cubs after the Bartman catch in the playoffs.

Like any politician, Daley dreamed grandiose dreams. After 20 years as mayor, Daley has compiled an impressive record on "quality of life" issues such as neighborhood viability, exemplary city services, good schools, low crime, a restrained budget and reasonably low taxes, decent parks, a vibrant Loop and Lakefront. But nothing lasts forever.

The economic downturn has virtually shuttered new construction, prompting unemployment and discontent among Daley's chief allies, the labor unions. Property taxes are increasing, the budget is short $300 million, crime is painfully visible, and percolating scandals could explode at any time.

A 2016 Chicago Olympics would have sugarcoated all these problems, allowing Daley to focus on the "Big Picture" for the next 7 years, giving him a pretext to run again in 2011 and 2015. The mayor called snaring the 2016 Summer Games a "defining moment in history," akin to the Chicago Fire and the 1933 World's Fair.

Instead, Daley's lack of clout with the International Olympic Committee was a defining moment in his reign. He's not a player on the world stage, and Chicago was deemed deficient as a world-class city, eating the dust of Rio de Janeiro, Madrid and Tokyo. In short, Daley was humiliated.

How does Daley rebound? At age 67, does he quit at the top of his game? Does he leave office in 2011 voluntarily, amid verbal bouquets and testimonials, an icon in Chicago history and the man who served as mayor for more years than his father (22)?

Or does he, with an approval rating hovering around 35 percent, downsize his vision and priorities, focus on potholes, travel the neighborhoods, resist the scandals, and reinvent himself as Chicago's feisty, lovable and indispensable mayor? There is a great risk. There is a perception that Daley is becoming tired and tiresome. Losing the Olympics is inconsequential compared to losing reelection in 2011.

Daley has spent his lifetime in the family business, and a Daley has been mayor of Chicago for 41 of the past 54 years. Even a slight possibility of voter rejection would be intolerable. Yet the Democratic Machine's insiders fear chaos if Daley retires. There is no obvious successor. A gaggle of nondescript aldermen want the job: Pat O'Connor (40th), Joe Moore (49th), Bob Fioretti (2nd), Manny Flores (1st), Brendan Reilly (42nd), Preckwinkle and Jackson. Also in the mix would be city Clerk Miguel del Valle, U.S. Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-4), U.S. Representative Danny Davis (D-7) and Brown, and possibly U.S. Representative Mike Quigley (D-5).

The result: absolute Balkanization. More than a dozen candidates would run. It would take only 20 percent of the vote to make the runoff. Candidates would appeal solely to their base. If the Hispanic field (Gutierrez, Berrios, del Valle, Flores) were reduced to one, a Hispanic candidate could make the runoff. If the black field (Jackson, Preckwinkle, Davis, Brown) were winnowed down, a black candidate would make the runoff.

And as for the white field (Dart, Hynes, O'Connor, Fioretti, Reilly, Moore, O'Brien, possibly Madigan, Hoffman), the muddle would be hopeless. Hoffman and Moore would compete for the anti-Daley white liberals, Reilly and Fioretti for the Lakefront yuppies, and O'Connor, Dart, Hynes and O'Brien for the white ethnics. Dart would have enough crossover appeal to run first.

The white primary vote is roughly 47 percent, the black vote is 43 percent, and the Hispanic vote is 10 percent.

My first prediction: He gone. Daley will retire.

My second prediction: It will be Dart versus Preckwinkle in the runoff, and Dart will win.