With the November election just a month away, voters are in a curious mood. They're both weary and wary.

They are weary of the incessant scandals in Chicago, Cook County and Illinois government, but they aren't angry, as they consider this standard operating practice. And they are wary of any politician who promises to change business as usual because they know it won't happen.

At mid-summer there was a palpable "Anger Factor" among the populace. Gas prices were over $3.50 per gallon and a fill-up cost nearly $60. Mortgage interest rates were at 7 percent. Iraq was unresolved. Immigrants were marching in major cities. The George Ryan trial droned on, accompanied by new U.S. attorney investigations of the Blagojevich Administration and the county government.

Now, gas prices are down a dollar. Interest rates are down to 6.25 percent. Inflation is in check. There were no terrorist bombings or hurricanes. The immigration rallies yielded few new voters. Iraq doesn't look so hopeless. The president's popularity is up to 44 percent. The voters' mood has evolved from anger to resignation -- an attitude of: "What difference does it make?" Here's an update on two contests.

Governor: In sports and politics, it is often remarked that it ain't over until it's over. For Judy Baar Topinka and the Republicans, the Illinois governor's race is over. Incumbent Democrat Rod Blagojevich will beat Topinka by more than 300,000 votes.

But happily, at least for the U.S. attorney, a 4-year window is opening during which the feds can merrily investigate the misdeeds of the Blagojevich Administration. By campaign's end, the governor will have raised and spent more than $25 million and the feds will be poring over contributor lists to find a link between the money and a state job or contract, trying to discover a quid pro quo. They already are probing $120,000 donated to Blagojevich by East Coast law firms which later were placed on the state Teachers Retirement System "preferred list" for hire. By the end of his next term, "pay to play" scandals will have put Blagojevich's popularity into the dumpster.

But Blagojevich, like any politician, never looks beyond the next election. He has run a textbook-perfect campaign, fully aware that his path to victory lay in demonizing Topinka, not hyping himself. After the March primary, various polls showed Blagojevich with a narrow lead; one had Topinka up 36-33 percent and another had 43 percent agreeing that the Blagojevich Administration "is just as corrupt as the Ryan Administration."

Using his huge cash edge, the governor went negative in television ads throughout June, July and August, spending an estimated $600,000 per week. The ads pounded Topinka as "George Ryan's treasurer," a supporter of President Bush, an opponent of the assault weapons ban and a partner in state "deficit spending," Blagojevich opened a 45-33 percent lead (according to a mid-September Chicago Tribune poll) after 12 weeks, and Topinka lacked the funding to respond. Still, a SurveyUSA poll showed Blagojevich with a 44/52 percent job approval/disapproval rating.

Blagojevich's ads were devastating. Topinka, once fondly characterized as quirky and quippy, with an irreverent sense of humor, suddenly was perceived as quacky and crazy. "What was she thinking?" became a classic tagline, ranking with "Where's the beef?"

Topinka is now on television trying to brand Blagojevich as corrupt by comparing the multitudinous investigations of state government to those spawned during the Ryan years. For Topinka, it's too little, too late. Her attack ads are lost in the autumn TV clutter, and Blagojevich is still attacking her. His ads outnumber hers two-to-one.

On issues, Topinka came out with the idea of a Chicago casino to fund her $9.8 billion schools plan, which is double what Blagojevich promised in new funding during his first term. She proposed $3 billion in Medicaid and other program cuts over 4 years and opposed the sale of any state assets such as the tollway, the lottery or state buildings.

Topinka's campaign remains confident, noting that Blagojevich was up 51-35 percent over Jim Ryan in late September of 2002 but won by 52-45 percent (252,080 votes) and that George Ryan was up 51-30 over Glenn Poshard in August of 1998 but won by 51-47 percent (119,903 votes). With 16 to 20 percent of the electorate undecided and with 80 percent of the undecideds usually breaking for the challenger, Topinka surely will close the gap.

While voters are not angry over Blagojevich's performance, they are disappointed, and possibly disgusted. This was the guy who promised to change the way "state government does business." Instead, he's just another crass opportunist. Given Topinka's baggage and Illinois' propensity to back Democrats, the governor will win.

Cook County Board President: Republican Tony Peraica is feverishly trying to stoke the cauldron of discontent, fully aware that he needs an outpouring of voter anger to beat Todd Stroger. That's why he's constantly lambasting county corruption, nepotism, increased taxes, bloated bureaucracy, patronage hiring and FBI investigations.

Harking back to a term once applied to Ronald Reagan, the Peraica campaign is trying to portray Stroger as an amiable dunce, wholly unqualified to hold the top county post. The method of Stroger's ascension is the key issue. On July 18 county Democratic committeemen met and picked the 8th Ward alderman to replace his father, John Stroger, on the ballot. The elder Stroger has been a commissioner since 1970 and the board president since 1994; he suffered a stroke in March and has not recovered.

John Stroger won election with 62.9 percent of the vote in 1994, 63.1 percent in 1998 and 68.4 percent in 2002. His son should be an easy victor, but there are several problems.

First, Stroger's black base is not solid, as West Siders wanted Bobbie Steele or Danny Davis chosen, and he is a conciliator, not a rabble rouser. He needs a big black turnout.

Second, Stroger needs backing from white liberals. That's why he is attacking Peraica as a "radical George Bush Republican" who opposes abortion rights, gay rights and gun control. Inasmuch as there were only 597,406 Bush votes for president in Cook County in 2004, with 1,439,724 for John Kerry, Peraica needs to be the reform candidate, not the Republican candidate.

Third, with a $500 million county budget deficit looming and acting board president Steele bemoaning "systemic issues that impede efficient operation" -- meaning patronage employees who don't do their job -- it is impossible for Stroger to masquerade as a reformer. Also, in the weeks after John Stroger's stroke, the number of county employees grew by 1,600, to 27,292.

Fourth, on Sept. 21 the feds stormed the County Building and seized hiring records. Expect several years of hiring scandals.

And fifth, the "Daley Machine" is hobbled by investigations and the Hired Truck scandal. It will not be able to put its customary manpower on the street, especially in the outlying white wards.

Peraica has been a county commissioner for 4 years and part of the board's 9-8 anti-Stroger majority, which includes six Republicans and Democrats Forrest Claypool, Mike Quigley and Larry Suffredin. Peraica has promised major reductions in county spending, and he will be dubbed "Tony the Knife" if he wins. Claypool, who lost to Stroger in the 2006 primary with 48 percent of the vote, and Quigley both want to be president, and they would not support Peraica's slashes. When Democrats cut the budget they're termed tough and realistic; when Republicans do so they're mean and heartless. Peraica would be a one-termer.

But that's all academic. The 2004 countywide turnout was 2,088,727; in the presidential race, 990,000 votes were cast in the suburbs and 981,000 in Chicago. Bush got 19 percent of the city vote (180,000) and 42 percent of the suburban vote (403,000). Turnout in 2006 will be around 1.3 million, meaning that for Peraica to get 650,000 votes, he needs 228,000 votes in Chicago (35 percent) and 422,000 votes in the suburbs (65 percent). That's just not going to happen.

 A mid-September Chicago Sun-Times poll gave Stroger a 52-19 percent lead. That is not credible. The race is much closer. But the poll did indicate that half of the respondents didn't care how Stroger got picked to be president.

Way back in 1990, after Rich Daley resigned as Cook County state's attorney to become mayor, Democrat Cecil Partee was appointed his successor. In the ensuing campaign, Republicans blasted Partee for being a deadbeat dad, for fathering an illegitimate child, for owning slum property and for writing sweetheart contracts for government agencies to rent his properties. Partee's character was shredded, and he lost to Jack O'Malley.

Attacking the method by which Stroger was chosen will not be enough. Peraica must give voters, and especially white voters, a more plausible reason to vote against him. He must uncover and publicize some serious character flaws. Otherwise, he will lose big.