President Barack Obama is poised on the precipice of defeat.

The Obama idolatry of 2008 has evolved into Obama fatigue in 2012. The enthusiasm, bordering on adulation, has withered, the "hope" has diminished, and the "change we need" is now the object of derision.

Obama is at best a well intentioned but clueless blunderer who needs 8 years to accomplish what Ronald Reagan did in 4 and at worst an incompetent.

In 2008 Obama won 28 states and the District of Columbia, amassing an Electoral College win of 365-173, 95 more votes than was needed. In 2012 Obama is struggling. Nine states that he won in 2008 by a total of 1,639,322 votes, with 110 electoral votes, are "battleground states," meaning that they could be carried by Mitt Romney, and two states, Michigan (with 16 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (with 20), which Obama won in 2008 by 823,940 votes and 620,478 votes, respectively, are in play. If either of them, or Ohio (18 electoral votes), which Obama won by 262,224 votes, goes to Romney, Obama is the ex-president.

With a $16 trillion national debt, a defense budget of almost $1 trillion annually, interest on the debt of $1 trillion a year, "Obamacare" costing at least $1.6 trillion in the next decade and social security and Medicare costs growing 5 percent annually, does anybody really think a solution will emerge in the next 4 years?

In all likelihood, the next president will be a colossal failure, beset by intractable debt and revenue deficiencies.

For each party, losing now is winning later. If Obama wins Tuesday, the Republicans will obliterate the Democrats in 2014 and take the presidency in 2016. If Romney wins, the Democrats will take Congress in 2014 and Hillary Clinton will take the White House in 2016.

On Nov. 6 the outcome will be decided by the 69.5 million "Obama Nation," from which 6 million to 8 million voters may have seceded. At least 4 to 7 percent of primarily younger and Hispanic voters will not vote on Nov. 6, and another 2 to 3 percent will opt for Romney.

In 2004, which was a normal turnout election, George Bush beat John Kerry by 62,040,606-59,028,109, a margin of 3,024,497 votes in a turnout of 121,068,715. In 2008, which was a "wave" election with anti-Bush sentiment cascading, Obama beat John McCain by 69,498,215-59,948,240, a margin of 9,549,975 votes in a turnout of 129,446,455. Obama got 10,470,106 more votes than Kerry, and McCain got 2,092,366 fewer votes than Bush.

Clearly, Obama won not because two million 2004 Bush voters shifted to him; he won largely because 9.5 million 2004 non-voters opted to vote for him -- a 7.3 percent increase in turnout. To win this election, Obama needs 95 percent of his 2008 vote, or at least 66 million; if he drops down to 90 percent, or 62.5 million, he loses.

In any presidential race, the "comfort zone equation" is determinative. Are voters "comfortable" with the incumbent? If not, are they "comfortable" with the challenger? Romney has crossed the "comfort" threshold.

Here are my predictions:

It's all about electoral votes. Bush won 271-266 in 2000, only because he carried Florida; he won 285-251 in 2004, only because he carried Ohio. Obama took 28 states in 2008 and won the electoral vote 365-173.

The question is: How many 2008 states can Obama lose and still triumph? These are the so-called nine "battleground states" that Obama won over McCain but that he may lose to Romney.

*Florida (29 electoral votes): Bush beat Gore by a disputed 537 votes in 2000, in a turnout of 5,963,110. Bush beat Kerry in 2004 by 380,979 votes, in a turnout of 7,609,810, an increase of 1,646,700 over 2000. Obama beat McCain in 2008 by 236,450 votes, in a turnout of 8,327,698, an increase of 717,888 over 2004. Polls show the race tied. Prediction: Romney wins by 75,000 votes in a turnout of 8.5 million.

*Ohio (18): But for Bush's 118,599-vote win over Kerry in 2004, in a turnout of 5,627,903, he would have lost the presidency. Bush won in 2000 by 166,735 votes in a turnout of 4,701,998. Obama won in 2008 by 262,224 votes in a turnout of 5,617,864, roughly 10,000 less than in 2004. The state is losing population, and 2008 was more anti-Bush than pro-Obama. Polls show Obama up by 2 to 3 points. Prediction: Obama wins by 15,000 votes.

*Virginia (13): The state, due to a continuing influx of liberal U.S. government workers into the Washington, D.C., suburbs, is trending Democratic. It went for Bush in 2000 by 220,200 votes in a turnout of 2,739,441. Bush won in 2004 by 262,217 votes in a turnout of 3,198,367. Obama won in 2008 by 234,527 votes in a turnout of 3,684,537. Obama got 504,790 more votes than Kerry, and McCain got 8,046 more votes than Bush. Half of those 504,790 people won't vote on Nov. 6, and 10 percent will bolt. Prediction: Romney by 45,000 votes.

*North Carolina (15): This is a 40 percent rural state with growing urban metropolises such as Raleigh, Durham, Charlotte, Ashville, Winston-Salem and Greensboro. Obama won in 2008 by 14,177 votes in a turnout of 4,271,125. Bush won in 2004 by 435,317 votes in a turnout of 3,487,015. The turnout in 2008 was an astounding 784,110 higher than in 2004. Bush won in 2000 by 373,471 votes in a turnout of 2,914,990, which was 572,025 lower than in 2004 and 1,356,135 lower than in 2008. The pro-Obama urban surge is neutralized by the anti-Obama rural surge. Prediction: Romney by 125,000 votes.

*Wisconsin (10): After tight races -- Gore won by 5,708 votes in a turnout of 2,596,711 and Kerry won by 11,384 votes in a turnout of 2,967,624 -- 2008 was an Obama blowout. He won by 414,818 votes in a turnout of 2,930,604 -- which was lower than in 2004. More than 200,000 2004 Bush voters abandoned McCain, as Bush had 1,478,120 votes and McCain had 1,262,393 votes. Polls show the race dead even. Prediction: Obama wins by 5,000 votes.

*Iowa (6): The quintessential bellwether state, with a dwindling population, gave Gore a 4,144-vote win in a turnout of 1,315,563 and Bush a 10,059-vote win in a turnout of 1,493,855, and then gave Obama a landslide -- by Iowa standards -- of 146,561 votes in a turnout of 1,511,319. Like Wisconsin, there wasn't a surge of new voters, just an anti-Bush disgust by existing voters. Polls show the 2012 race close. Prediction: Romney by 3,000 votes.

*Colorado (9): The state swings wildly between the parties. Bush won in 2000 by a solid 145,527 votes in a turnout of 1,741,368. Bush won in 2004 by 99,523 votes in a turnout of 2,129,630 -- up by nearly 400,000. Obama topped McCain in 2008 by 142,377 votes in a turnout of 2,097,263 -- less than in 2004. Disillusionment with Obama will shift the state again. Prediction: Romney by 40,000 votes.

*Nevada (6): U.S. Senator Harry Reid's political machine must deliver for Obama. Bush won in 2000 by 21,597 votes in a turnout of 608,970, and he won in 2004 by 21,500 votes in a turnout of 829,587 -- an increase of more than 200,000, signifying major population growth. Obama won in 2008 by 119,896 votes in a turnout of 954,270. The state's housing industry is in the pits, but a big Hispanic vote will save Obama. Prediction: Obama by 10,000 votes.

*New Hampshire (4): Once a Republican bastion, this state is as politically unstable as Colorado. Bush won in 2000 by 7,277 votes in a turnout of 567,795, Kerry won in 2004 by 9,274 votes in a turnout of 677,662, and Obama won in 2008 by 68,292 votes in a turnout of 701,360. The trend line is Democratic, and Obama got 44,000 more votes than Kerry (and McCain got 15,000 fewer votes than Bush). Prediction: Edge to Obama.

Those nine states cast 110 electoral votes. If Obama wins New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin and Ohio, those 38 votes, added to his 245 from 2008, give him 283, 13 more than he needs. He can afford to lose Wisconsin or both Nevada and New Hampshire, but he cannot lose Ohio and be re-elected.

Surprisingly, both Pennsylvania and Michigan are in play. Anti-Obama sentiment is palpable in both. Prediction: Romney wins in an upset.

U.S. Senate: Now 53-47 Democratic, inept Republican candidates have forfeited Missouri and Indiana, and Scott Brown will lose in Massachusetts. The Democrats will lose Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Virginia and Wisconsin, and maybe Ohio and Florida. Prediction: 51-49 Republican majority.

U.S. House: Now 242-193 Republican, with 218 for a majority. The Democrats are making no headway. According to Washington prognosticators, the Republicans will win 224 seats and the Democrats will win 181, with 30 districts rated as "toss-ups," including five in Illinois. Prediction: Bob Dold (R-10), Judy Biggert (R-11) and Bobby Schilling (R-17), will eke out wins, Joe Walsh (R-8) will lose by 5,000 votes, and the Republicans will win the open East Saint Louis seat. The 2013-14 Republican majority will be 245-190.

Illinois Senate: Now 35-24 Democratic, Republican opportunities are evaporating. Democrats Dan Kotowski, Julie Morrison, Andy Manar, Bill Haine and Dave Koehler will win, and Mike Jacobs will lose. Prediction: 34-25 Democratic.

Illinois House: Now 64-54 Democratic, the Republicans need a net pickup of six seats to oust Mike Madigan. Republican Sid Mathias will win, Republican Skip Saviano will lose, and Democrat Marty Moylan will win the Park Ridge seat by 300 votes. Prediction: 62-56 Democratic.