Barack Obama is poised on the precipice of defeat.
Obama idolatry of 2008 has evolved into Obama
fatigue in 2012. The enthusiasm, bordering on
adulation, has withered, the "hope" has
diminished, and the "change we need" is
now the object of derision.
is at best a well intentioned but clueless
blunderer who needs 8 years to accomplish what
Ronald Reagan did in 4 and at worst an
2008 Obama won 28 states and the District of
Columbia, amassing an Electoral College win of
365-173, 95 more votes than was needed. In 2012
Obama is struggling. Nine states that he won in
2008 by a total of 1,639,322 votes, with 110
electoral votes, are "battleground
states," meaning that they could be carried
by Mitt Romney, and two states, Michigan (with 16
electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (with 20), which
Obama won in 2008 by 823,940 votes and 620,478
votes, respectively, are in play. If either of
them, or Ohio (18 electoral votes), which Obama
won by 262,224 votes, goes to Romney, Obama is the
a $16 trillion national debt, a defense budget of
almost $1 trillion annually, interest on the debt
of $1 trillion a year, "Obamacare"
costing at least $1.6 trillion in the next decade
and social security and Medicare costs growing 5
percent annually, does anybody really think a
solution will emerge in the next 4 years?
all likelihood, the next president will be a
colossal failure, beset by intractable debt and
each party, losing now is winning later. If Obama
wins Tuesday, the Republicans will obliterate the
Democrats in 2014 and take the presidency in 2016.
If Romney wins, the Democrats will take Congress
in 2014 and Hillary Clinton will take the White
House in 2016.
Nov. 6 the outcome will be decided by the 69.5
million "Obama Nation," from which 6
million to 8 million voters may have seceded. At
least 4 to 7 percent of primarily younger and
Hispanic voters will not vote on Nov. 6, and
another 2 to 3 percent will opt for Romney.
2004, which was a normal turnout election, George
Bush beat John Kerry by 62,040,606-59,028,109, a
margin of 3,024,497 votes in a turnout of
121,068,715. In 2008, which was a "wave"
election with anti-Bush sentiment cascading, Obama
beat John McCain by 69,498,215-59,948,240, a
margin of 9,549,975 votes in a turnout of
129,446,455. Obama got 10,470,106 more votes than
Kerry, and McCain got 2,092,366 fewer votes than
Obama won not because two million 2004 Bush voters
shifted to him; he won largely because 9.5 million
2004 non-voters opted to vote for him -- a 7.3
percent increase in turnout. To win this election,
Obama needs 95 percent of his 2008 vote, or at
least 66 million; if he drops down to 90 percent,
or 62.5 million, he loses.
any presidential race, the "comfort zone
equation" is determinative. Are voters
"comfortable" with the incumbent? If
not, are they "comfortable" with the
challenger? Romney has crossed the
are my predictions:
all about electoral votes. Bush won 271-266 in
2000, only because he carried Florida; he won
285-251 in 2004, only because he carried Ohio.
Obama took 28 states in 2008 and won the electoral
question is: How many 2008 states can Obama lose
and still triumph? These are the so-called nine
"battleground states" that Obama won
over McCain but that he may lose to Romney.
(29 electoral votes): Bush beat Gore by a disputed
537 votes in 2000, in a turnout of 5,963,110. Bush
beat Kerry in 2004 by 380,979 votes, in a turnout
of 7,609,810, an increase of 1,646,700 over 2000.
Obama beat McCain in 2008 by 236,450 votes, in a
turnout of 8,327,698, an increase of 717,888 over
2004. Polls show the race tied. Prediction: Romney
wins by 75,000 votes in a turnout of 8.5 million.
(18): But for Bush's 118,599-vote win over Kerry
in 2004, in a turnout of 5,627,903, he would have
lost the presidency. Bush won in 2000 by 166,735
votes in a turnout of 4,701,998. Obama won in 2008
by 262,224 votes in a turnout of 5,617,864,
roughly 10,000 less than in 2004. The state is
losing population, and 2008 was more anti-Bush
than pro-Obama. Polls show Obama up by 2 to 3
points. Prediction: Obama wins by 15,000 votes.
(13): The state, due to a continuing influx of
liberal U.S. government workers into the
Washington, D.C., suburbs, is trending Democratic.
It went for Bush in 2000 by 220,200 votes in a
turnout of 2,739,441. Bush won in 2004 by 262,217
votes in a turnout of 3,198,367. Obama won in 2008
by 234,527 votes in a turnout of 3,684,537. Obama
got 504,790 more votes than Kerry, and McCain got
8,046 more votes than Bush. Half of those 504,790
people won't vote on Nov. 6, and 10 percent will
bolt. Prediction: Romney by 45,000 votes.
Carolina (15): This is a 40 percent rural state
with growing urban metropolises such as Raleigh,
Durham, Charlotte, Ashville, Winston-Salem and
Greensboro. Obama won in 2008 by 14,177 votes in a
turnout of 4,271,125. Bush won in 2004 by 435,317
votes in a turnout of 3,487,015. The turnout in
2008 was an astounding 784,110 higher than in
2004. Bush won in 2000 by 373,471 votes in a
turnout of 2,914,990, which was 572,025 lower than
in 2004 and 1,356,135 lower than in 2008. The
pro-Obama urban surge is neutralized by the
anti-Obama rural surge. Prediction: Romney by
(10): After tight races -- Gore won by 5,708 votes
in a turnout of 2,596,711 and Kerry won by 11,384
votes in a turnout of 2,967,624 -- 2008 was an
Obama blowout. He won by 414,818 votes in a
turnout of 2,930,604 -- which was lower than in
2004. More than 200,000 2004 Bush voters abandoned
McCain, as Bush had 1,478,120 votes and McCain had
1,262,393 votes. Polls show the race dead even.
Prediction: Obama wins by 5,000 votes.
(6): The quintessential bellwether state, with a
dwindling population, gave Gore a 4,144-vote win
in a turnout of 1,315,563 and Bush a 10,059-vote
win in a turnout of 1,493,855, and then gave Obama
a landslide -- by Iowa standards -- of 146,561
votes in a turnout of 1,511,319. Like Wisconsin,
there wasn't a surge of new voters, just an
anti-Bush disgust by existing voters. Polls show
the 2012 race close. Prediction: Romney by 3,000
(9): The state swings wildly between the parties.
Bush won in 2000 by a solid 145,527 votes in a
turnout of 1,741,368. Bush won in 2004 by 99,523
votes in a turnout of 2,129,630 -- up by nearly
400,000. Obama topped McCain in 2008 by 142,377
votes in a turnout of 2,097,263 -- less than in
2004. Disillusionment with Obama will shift the
state again. Prediction: Romney by 40,000 votes.
(6): U.S. Senator Harry Reid's political machine
must deliver for Obama. Bush won in 2000 by 21,597
votes in a turnout of 608,970, and he won in 2004
by 21,500 votes in a turnout of 829,587 -- an
increase of more than 200,000, signifying major
population growth. Obama won in 2008 by 119,896
votes in a turnout of 954,270. The state's housing
industry is in the pits, but a big Hispanic vote
will save Obama. Prediction: Obama by 10,000
Hampshire (4): Once a Republican bastion, this
state is as politically unstable as Colorado. Bush
won in 2000 by 7,277 votes in a turnout of
567,795, Kerry won in 2004 by 9,274 votes in a
turnout of 677,662, and Obama won in 2008 by
68,292 votes in a turnout of 701,360. The trend
line is Democratic, and Obama got 44,000 more
votes than Kerry (and McCain got 15,000 fewer
votes than Bush). Prediction: Edge to Obama.
nine states cast 110 electoral votes. If Obama
wins New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin and Ohio,
those 38 votes, added to his 245 from 2008, give
him 283, 13 more than he needs. He can afford to
lose Wisconsin or both Nevada and New Hampshire,
but he cannot lose Ohio and be re-elected.
both Pennsylvania and Michigan are in play.
Anti-Obama sentiment is palpable in both.
Prediction: Romney wins in an upset.
Senate: Now 53-47 Democratic, inept Republican
candidates have forfeited Missouri and Indiana,
and Scott Brown will lose in Massachusetts. The
Democrats will lose Montana, North Dakota,
Nebraska, Virginia and Wisconsin, and maybe Ohio
and Florida. Prediction: 51-49 Republican
House: Now 242-193 Republican, with 218 for a
majority. The Democrats are making no headway.
According to Washington prognosticators, the
Republicans will win 224 seats and the Democrats
will win 181, with 30 districts rated as
"toss-ups," including five in Illinois.
Prediction: Bob Dold (R-10), Judy Biggert (R-11)
and Bobby Schilling (R-17), will eke out wins, Joe
Walsh (R-8) will lose by 5,000 votes, and the
Republicans will win the open East Saint Louis
seat. The 2013-14 Republican majority will be
Senate: Now 35-24 Democratic, Republican
opportunities are evaporating. Democrats Dan
Kotowski, Julie Morrison, Andy Manar, Bill Haine
and Dave Koehler will win, and Mike Jacobs will
lose. Prediction: 34-25 Democratic.
House: Now 64-54 Democratic, the Republicans need
a net pickup of six seats to oust Mike Madigan.
Republican Sid Mathias will win, Republican Skip
Saviano will lose, and Democrat Marty Moylan will
win the Park Ridge seat by 300 votes. Prediction: