The salient question in Springfield is not whether the Republicans can exploit Democratic bickering and incompetence. They might increase their 37-22 Illinois Senate minority by a seat or two, but they won't gain a majority.

Instead, the operative inquiries are when Democratic Illinois Senate President Emil Jones, from the South Side, will retire and who will replace him. Jones, age 72, is a staunch ally of Governor Rod Blagojevich, a fierce critic of Democratic Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, and the creator and perpetuator of a patronage empire consisting of his family and friends.

At this year's Illinois State Fair, Jones said Madigan "is not a man of his word," a huge insult to Madigan, who prides himself on keeping his word.

Jones' departure would be a blow to the governor and a boon to Madigan. Jones' term expires in 2008, and he is running again, but rumors abound that he will retire in the near future. Should that occur, his certain successor would be Debbie DeFrancesco Halvorson of Will County, the Democratic majority leader. She, however, is no great ally of the governor or enemy of Madigan. But Halvorson is running for Congress in the 11th District in 2008, and a bunch of would-be Senate presidents are already jockeying to succeed her and, later, Jones.

Among the aspirants to be one of the General Assembly's "Four Tops," who include the party leader of each chamber, are three North Side and Northwest Side Democrats: John Cullerton (D-6), Jim DeLeo (D-10) and Ira Silverstein (D-8).

"There will be enormous pressure on Senate Democrats to elect another black as president," said one senator. "And there will be enormous pressure on Jones to stay until he can pass the post to a black." But, according to Springfield sources, the three potential black successors all have shortcomings: Rickey Hendon (D-5) of the West Side is not deemed credible, Jim Clayborne (D-57) of East Saint Louis is the recipient of tens of thousands of dollars in special interest money, and Donne Trotter (D-17) of the Far South Side lacks stature.

At present, Jones' 37-vote majority can override a governor's veto, enact any bill in an overtime session, and defeat any bill passed by the House. Jones rules the Senate with an iron grip, like Madigan in the House, because he can raise and parcel out $3 million in campaign funding to candidates during each election cycle.

In the Senate there are nine black senators, four Hispanic senators, five white senators from Chicago, 11 white suburbanites from Cook County and the Collar Counties, and nine Downstaters (including one black senator). The Democratic leadership consists of Halvorson, as majority leader, and six assistant majority leaders, apportioned among each faction: DeLeo of Chicago, Terry Link (D-30), the Lake County Democratic chairman, of the north suburbs, Clayborne of Downstate, Iris Martinez (D-20), representing Hispanics, Hendon, representing blacks, and Lou Viverito (D-11) of Stickney, in the south suburbs.

Also in leadership, as deputies or caucus chairman, are Cullerton, Trotter and John Sullivan of Quincy.

The Halvorson succession, if it occurs, will be all about coalition building. Cullerton, DeLeo, Link and Clayborne will run. Suburbanites will want Link to replace Halvorson. Whites will resist having blacks in the top two spots. Blacks and liberals will spurn DeLeo, who is deemed too conservative. If Clayborne stumbles, blacks may shift to Cullerton, a white liberal. But the underlying thought will be: If the next majority leader is competent and credible, he or she will be Jones' successor, so if you can't have your choice, why not elect a caretaker and do battle again when Jones quits?

That's the scenario in which Silverstein can win. A Jewish moderate from West Rogers Park, Silverstein is acceptable to all factions. After three or four inconclusive ballots, he could be the compromise choice.

As detailed in recent news reports, Jones' wife, Lorrie, was promoted to state mental health chief, at a salary of $186,000; his son, Emil Jones III, got a $57,000-a-year state job; and the computer consulting firm which hired Jones' stepson, John Sterling, got $90 million in no-bid City Colleges contracts and $11 million in city and county contracts. It also was revealed that Jones' daughter, Rene Rose, does lobbying work on behalf of the City Colleges and for the law firm that represents Exelon, the parent company of Commonwealth Edison, a major contributor to Jones and Senate Democrats. In a "pay-to-play" town, the governor is certainly paying Jones to stay on his team.

Republicans will make Jones' ethics and his alliance with Blagojevich issues in 2008. Two Democratic incumbents are vulnerable, as are two Republican seats. Here's an overview:

42nd District: In a huge upset, Democrat Linda Holmes defeated Republican Terri Wintermute by 2,843 votes, getting 52.4 percent of the vote, in the district vacated by longtime Republican Ed Petka in 2006. The district includes heavily Hispanic areas around Aurora and rural and suburban areas west of Joliet. Wintermute is running again. Outlook: Toss-up.

59th District: Incumbent Democrat Gary Forby was humiliated when Jones used a parliamentary maneuver to excise ComEd from the $1 billion utility rate freeze bill, which he sponsored. The final version did include both Ameren and Com Ed. Forby, re-elected in 2004 by 5,275 votes, with 52.7 percent of the vote, in his Downstate district, faces a tough 2008 race against Ken Burzynski, the brother of state Senator Brad Burzynski (R-35). Outlook: Toss-up.

27th District: Matt Murphy was the only Republican to hold an open suburban seat in 2006, topping Peter Gutzmer by 3,183 votes (with 52.6 percent of the total). Democrats had allocated their resources five other Republican-held districts and won all of them. Gutzmer is running again, and Murphy, a conservative in a district taking in Palatine, Arlington Heights, Prospect Heights, Inverness and parts of Rolling Meadows and Hoffman Estates, will be the Democrats' number one target in 2008. The outlook: Murphy is favored.

26th District: The Republican incumbent is retiring, and Democrats have a chance in this district, which includes western Lake County and part of eastern McHenry County. The Democrat will be Round Lake Mayor Bill Gentes. The outlook: Leans Republican.

As detailed in the adjoining vote chart, there were few controversial votes during 2007. And that's because leadership (meaning Jones) does not let any measure that could politically damage any member get to a roll-call vote. Included in the chart are Silverstein, DeLeo, Cullerton and Martinez, as well as Dan Kotowski (D-33) of Park Ridge, Don Harmon (D-39) of Oak Park and Jeff Schoenberg (D-9) of Evanston. All except DeLeo are up for election in 2008, and all except Martinez are favored for re-election. Here's the outlook:

20th District: Martinez was first elected in 2002 with strong backing from the Hispanic Democratic Organization. But Jones picked her for a leadership spot in 2007 over HDO-backed Tony Munoz. Now the HDO wants to beat her. Also, Alderman Dick Mell (33rd) wants to put his daughter Deborah in a House seat in Martinez's district, and he has persuaded state Representative Rich Bradley (D-40) to oppose Martinez in a largely Hispanic area. The outlook: Slight edge to Martinez.

8th District: Silverstein is running for 50th Ward Democratic Committeeman, opposing Berny Stone, his mentor and the alderman in the ward since 1973. Stone has threatened to back an opponent to Silverstein in the 2008 Senate primary.

33rd District: Kotowski scored a major upset in 2006, winning this seat by 1,434 votes (with 51.2 percent of the vote) over appointed Republican Cheryl Axley. The district includes Park Ridge, Des Plaines, Mount Prospect and Elk Grove, and it should be reliably Republican. Kotowski is a chronic campaigner, and he has generated a large base of support over the past 3 years. His 2008 Republican foe will be Mike Sweeney, the Elk Grove Township clerk. The outlook: Kotowski is strongly favored.