There is an ebb and a flow in any presidential contest. Right now, with the election less than two weeks away, the latest polls show Republican John McCain ebbing and Democrat Barack Obama flowing.

But before Obama starts writing his inaugural address, he should contemplate the fate of the now-forgotten Harvey Gantt, the onetime Charlotte mayor and African-American North Carolina Democrat who was leading in U.S. Senate polls in 1990 and 1996. Gantt lost both contests to white incumbent Republican Jesse Helms. Succinctly put, the "Harvey Gantt Factor" means that at least 5 percent of white voters lie to pollsters when queried about whether they will support a black candidate.

Applied nationally, that means Obama's pre-election polling edge must be 5 percent or better or he will lose that state. At present, Obama's lead is 5 percent or less in Ohio, Florida and Nevada and just slightly better than 5 percent in Minnesota, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Missouri and North Carolina, with West Virginia now moving to McCain.

To be sure, the fact that Obama is or was leading in those 10 states, eight of which were won by George Bush in 2004, is extraordinary. Beset with a collapsing economy and an intractable war in Iraq, voters are desperately seeking a "Way Out" -- which means voting Democratic. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate, she'd be ahead by 10 points, but due to his race, Obama has not yet closed the deal with voters.

North Carolina is a microcosm of America, with liberal urban areas such as Raleigh, Durham and Charlotte, conservative suburbs and rural areas, and a black population of 21 percent. Like Obama, Gantt was a moderate Democrat who eschewed the "victimization" attitude of blacks such as Jesse Jackson.  Unlike McCain, Helms was a hard-right conservative who vociferously opposed abortion, gun control, gay rights, foreign aid and affirmative action. He was detested by many but loved by just a few more.

In 1990, after trailing Gantt narrowly in the polls, Helms won by 106,758 votes, getting 53 percent of the votes cast. Likewise, in 1996, after running even with Gantt in the polls, Helms won by 171,958 votes, again getting 53 percent of the votes. The politically correct explanation is that North Carolina is filled with white racists who won't vote for a black candidate and that Gantt was the only Democrat who could have lost to Helms. Yet, in 1984, Helms beat the popular white Democratic governor, Jim Hunt, by 86,280 votes, with 52 percent of the vote.

The Helms-Gantt contests prove only that some white voters feel guilty about not voting for a black candidate and that they will not be honest with pollsters. As applied to 2008, when every poll has a margin of error of 4 to 5 percent, an additional "Harvey Gantt Factor" 5 percent must be factored into the equation. That means McCain, despite dismal poll numbers, could still triumph in key states, but he will not win the election.

Bush lost to Al Gore in 2000 by 539,940 votes, but he carried 29 states with 271 electoral votes, one more than a majority. Bush beat John Kerry in 2004 by 3,011,951 votes, and he carried 30 states with 286 electoral votes.

Obama is ahead by 10 percent or more in 18 states and the District of Columbia, with 238 electoral votes. He is ahead by roughly 5 percent in six more states (Washington, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Florida and Virginia), with 75 electoral votes, within the margin of error, or essentially tied, in five states (Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, West Virginia and North Carolina), with 56 electoral votes, and trailing slightly in three states (Indiana, Georgia and North Dakota), with 29 electoral votes.

To win, Obama need only carry his solid blue states, 18 of which were won by Kerry in 2004, plus Iowa (which is won by Bush), plus a few more states with 32 electoral votes (such as Florida, with 27); he need not win any toss-up states.

McCain, in contrast, is assured of carrying 18 states, with 140 electoral votes. Iowa, which Bush won in 2004, is gone. Not a single Kerry state will switch to McCain, although New Hampshire, Washington and Minnesota are relatively close. Ten 2004 Bush states are in play. Here's the outlook:

Iowa (seven electoral votes): Bush lost the state by 10,059 votes in 2000, but he won by 4,144 votes in 2004. The Democrats control the state government. The latest Survey USA poll has Obama up by 54 percent to 41 percent, and a Research 2000 poll had Obama winning by 55-39. My prediction: Safe for Obama.

Colorado (nine electoral votes): Bush won the state by 145,521 votes in 2000 and by 99,523 votes in 2004, but the Democrats are on a rampage, controlling the governorship and the state legislature, and they will hold both U.S. Senate seats after this election. The most recent Rasmussen poll puts Obama ahead by 52 percent to 45 percent, and a CNN/Time poll put Obama ahead 51-47. My prediction: A 51-49 Obama win.

New Mexico (five electoral votes): Gore won the state by 366 votes in 2000, and Bush won it by 5,988 votes in 2004. The Democrats dominate the state government, and they will hold both U.S. Senate seats after this election. The Rasmussen poll has Obama up 55 percent to 42 percent, and a Survey USA poll had Obama winning 52-45. My prediction: A 52-48 Obama win, due to heavy Hispanic support.

New Hampshire (four electoral votes): Bush won the state by 7,211 votes in 2000, but he lost it by 9,274 votes in 2004. The Democrats won the governorship and two U.S. House seats in 2006. The Rasmussen poll has Obama up by 53 percent to 43 percent, and a CNN/Time poll had Obama winning by 53-45. My prediction: A tight 51-49 Obama victory.

Florida (27 electoral votes): Bush won the state by 537 votes in 2000, and he upped that to 380,978 votes in 2004. Republicans control the state government. The Rasmussen/Fox poll has Obama winning by 51 percent to 46 percent, and CNN/Time had Obama ahead 51-46, but a Survey USA poll had McCain in front 49-47. This is the ball game. Like Bush in 2000, McCain cannot win the presidency unless he wins Florida. My prediction: McCain takes 52 percent of the vote.

Ohio (20 electoral votes): Bush won the state by 165,019 votes in 2000 and by 118,599 votes in 2004. The Democrats hold the governorship, and the economy is the key issue. The Rasmussen poll has the candidates tied at 49-49, while Survey USA has Obama ahead by 50 percent to 45 percent and NBC News/Mason-Dixon had McCain winning 47-41. Clearly, the "Harvey Gantt Factor" is operative. My prediction: McCain wins Ohio with 51 percent of the vote.

Missouri (11 electoral votes): Bush won the state by 78,786 votes in 2000 and by 196,542 votes in 2004. The Republicans control the state government. The Rasmussen poll has Obama ahead by 52 percent to 46 percent, but the CNN/Time poll has McCain up by 49-48. Give another one to Harvey. My prediction: McCain with 52 percent of the vote.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes): Bush won by 373,471 votes in 2000 and by 435,317 votes in 2004. It will be much closer in 2008. In Gantt's home state, a throw-the-bums-out mentality is afoot. A Republican will win the governorship, but a Democrat will oust U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole. The Rasmussen/Fox poll has the race for president tied at 48-48, while the Research 2000 poll has Obama up 46-44. My prediction: Tack on 5 percent for McCain. He'll get 53 percent of the vote.

Virginia (13 electoral votes): Bush won Virginia by 220,200 votes in 2000 and by 262,217 votes in 2004, but the state is undergoing a political metamorphosis from Republican to Democratic, led by the liberal northern Virginia suburbs. The Rasmussen/Fox poll has Obama ahead 50 percent to 47 percent, CNN/Time has Obama up 53-47, and Survey USA has Obama winning 53-43. Forget the "Gantt Factor." My prediction: Obama wins Virginia with 51 percent of the vote.

Indiana (11 electoral votes): This was Bush country. He won by 343,856 votes in 2000 and by 510,427 votes in 2004. Obama will do better than Kerry. A recent CNN/Time poll has McCain winning by 51 percent to 46 percent, and the Rasmussen poll has McCain up by 50-43. My prediction: McCain win with a solid 55 percent of the vote.

Nevada (five electoral votes): Hispanic voters will tip the state to Obama. Bush won by just 21,597 votes in 2000 and by 21,500 votes in 2004. The Rasmussen poll has Obama winning 50 percent to 45 percent, and a Mason-Dixon poll has Obama up 47-45. My prediction: Nevada goes for Obama.

West Virginia (five electoral votes): Obama got clobbered in the 2008 primary, and the "Gantt Factor" is alive and well. Bush won by 40,978 votes in 2000 and by 97,237 votes in 2004. The latest NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll has McCain leading by 47 percent to 41 percent, and the Rasmussen poll has McCain up by 50-42. My prediction: McCain wins.

The bottom line: It takes 270 Electoral College votes to elect the president. Kerry had 252 electoral votes in 2004, so Obama needs 18 more. He'll take Iowa (seven), Nevada (five), Virginia (13), New Mexico (five) and Colorado (nine), giving him 291 electoral votes. My prediction: Obama wins.