The
road to the governor's mansion runs through Chicago. That's because
any Republican who wants to be Illinois' governor knows that getting
less than a quarter of the Chicago vote means getting beat statewide.
In
1990 Republican Jim Edgar got 33.4 percent of the Chicago vote and won
the governorship by 83,909 votes.
In
1998 Republican George Ryan got 31.9 percent of the Chicago vote and
won the governorship by 119,903 votes.
In
2002 Republican Jim Ryan got 19.2 percent of the Chicago vote and lost
the governorship by 252,080 votes. In that same election, incumbent
Republican state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka got 28.6 percent of the
Chicago vote and won re-election by 396,965 votes.
Topinka
is gearing up to run for governor in 2006, and one of her top
priorities is to reinvigorate the nearly comatose Chicago Republican
party. She and her allies understand that the base Republican vote in
Chicago is around 20 percent, so it takes some coalition-building to
add another 10 percent. Edgar and Topinka got a higher-than-usual
share -- for a Republican -- of the black vote, and George Ryan picked
up the support of many liberals and gays who were estranged from
Democrat Glenn Poshard.
So,
rebuilding the city's Republican apparatus is not the key to statewide
victory. It is, however, important from the perspective of developing
future leaders, and also for fund-raising. Having an active Republican
committeeman in a ward means that Republican-inclined voters have
somewhere to go to get involved. And it means that statewide
candidates, like Topinka, have a base of support, and at least a few
precinct workers.
In
2004 all 50 wards will elect Democratic and Republican committeemen,
and in April of that year each party will choose a city chairman and a
county chairman. The Republican county chairman is Maureen Murphy, a
Board of Review commissioner and the only Republican holding any
countywide office; the city Republican chairman is the venerable Lou
Kasper of the 30th Ward, who has been a committeeman since 1964 and
the city party chairman for more than 20 years. Kasper is retiring in
2004, and a heated contest has begun to succeed him as city chairman.
Already
in the race is Clark Pellett, an attorney who is not even a
committeeman and who reportedly is not liked by many sitting
committeemen. According to party insiders, Pellett is wrapping himself
in the mantle of Topinka, claiming that her election in 2006 would be
his top priority and that, if she's governor, he'll be showered with
state patronage and other benefits.
Over
the past decade, state patronage has not been used to the Republicans'
advantage. In the 2000 presidential election, Democrat Al Gore won
Illinois by 569,605 votes, carried Cook County by 746,005 votes, and
won Chicago by 604,929 votes. George Bush, the Republican nominee, got
a mere 164,930 votes in Chicago (17.2 percent), to Gore's 769,859,
with the rest scattered. Gore's enormous edge in Chicago occasioned
his statewide win. Ryan was then governor, and Republicans had held
the governorship since 1977, but no army of state patronage workers
stormed into Chicago to aid Bush.
In
the 2002 election, Topinka got 189,187 votes (28.6 percent) in
Chicago, to Democrat Tom Dart's 468,587 (71.0), with the rest
scattered, losing the city by 279,400 votes -- almost 325,000 fewer
than Bush in 2000. The Topinka vote wasn't much better than the 2000
Bush vote, but turnout was lower, and Dart had almost 300,000 fewer
votes than Gore. Dart also ran well behind fellow Democrats Rod
Blagojevich (who got 548,664 votes in Chicago), Dick Durbin (who got
553,607), Lisa Madigan (522,890) and Jesse White (598,727).
Topinka
won the county suburbs by 106,931 votes, losing Cook County by just
172,469 votes. By comparison, Madigan won Cook County by 394,419
votes, Blagojevich by 468,974, White by 772,479 and Durbin by 587,898.
Pellett
was elected the committeeman of the Lakefront/Gold Coast 42nd Ward in
1992 and was re-elected in 1996, but he was defeated in 2000 by Rich
Gordon, who has made his ward a showpiece of Republican activism.
Gordon ran for alderman in 2003, got 44 percent of the vote against
incumbent Burt Natarus, and hasn't stopped campaigning and organizing
since. He has a full-time ward "service" office, sponsors
many activities for volunteers, and is a visible presence in the ward.
Gordon spent just $30,000 in his 2003 bid, to Natarus's $300,000; if
he had spent closer to $100,000 he'd be alderman today. Gordon is
running for alderman again in 2007, and he has declined entreaties by
fellow committeemen to run for city chairman.
As
the adjoining vote chart
indicates, the 42nd Ward has become one of the most Republican in the
city. Topinka won it, even though Bush got only 36.5 percent of the
vote in the ward in 2000. The Northwest Side's 41st Ward is still the
top Republican ward, but the 42nd Ward has eclipsed the 45th Ward. The
other wards with a growing Republican base -- the 43rd (Lincoln Park),
44th (Lakeview) and 32nd (Wicker Park) -- are all upscale areas with a
lot of resident turnover. They contain a lot of well educated singles
who can afford pricey condominiums, as well as a lot of empty nesters
who have sold their suburban home and have purchased a luxury condo in
the city.
These
are not people looking for a job or a political favor. They are likely
to be social moderates and fiscal conservatives. According to Gordon,
these people "want to get involved" in the political
process, and will support Republicans "if they are asked."
Brian
Doherty of the 41st Ward is the only Chicago Republican alderman. He
is allied with state Representative Mike McAuliffe (R-20), the 41st
Ward Republican committeeman, and they have an active precinct
organization in the ward. Gordon should make it two in 2007. That's
still just a nominal presence, but it's a beginning. Back in the
1950s, Chicago had 11 Republican aldermen.
Since
his defeat by Gordon, Pellett has moved into the 2nd Ward, just south
of the Loop, and is running there for committeeman in 2004. The city
chairman must be a committeeman. Pellett has been recruiting other
Republicans to run for committeeman throughout Chicago, and he is the
only active candidate for chairman at this time.
"He
has no track record of success," scoffs John Curry, the 32nd Ward
committeeman. "He couldn't even keep his (committeeman's) job,
and now he wants to be chairman. I fail to see any reason why we (the
city committeemen) would choose him to be our leader." Unless
somebody else soon surfaces, Curry may emerge as the stop-Pellett
candidate.
A
candidate for Republican ward committeeman must submit nominating
petitions bearing signatures amounting to between 5 percent and 10
percent of the highest Republican vote in the ward in the last
election, which would be the Topinka vote. In Curry's ward, for
example, Topinka got 6,799 votes, so Curry needs 340 to 680
signatures. In many black wards, the Topinka vote was barely over
1,000, so 50 to 100 signatures is all it takes to get on the ballot.
Topinka,
who is the Republican committeeman from west suburban Riverside
Township, professes neutrality in the upcoming city battle. She does
not want to alienate half or more of the few Republicans left in
Chicago. But to win the governorship in 2006, Topinka needs another
dozen Rich Gordon-like committeemen: ambitious politicians who see the
Republican committeemanship as a steppingstone to the ward's great
prize, the aldermanic seat, in 2007 and who will work hard for her in
2006 to fine-tune their organizations for the 2007 city elections.
And, most importantly, she needs a city chairman who will find them.