Acronyms are flying fast and furious in the contest for state representative in the North Shore 17th Illinois House District, which includes Glenview and parts of Skokie, Wilmette, Evanston, Golf, Northfield, Northbrook, Morton Grove, Winnetka and Glencoe.

Incumbent Republican Beth Coulson has been tagged by her conservative Republican House colleagues as a "RINO" -- meaning Republican In Name Only. "I am an independent," acknowledged Coulson. Back in the district, Democrats detest her as an "IDR" -- meaning Irritating Damn Republican.

But the most appropriate acronym attaching to Coulson, who was first elected in 1996, is "WROP" -- meaning Wins Regardless Of Party.

A decade ago Coulson, age 52, represented the more Republican half (the 57th Illinois House District) of the old 29th Illinois Senate District, held by Republican state Senator Kathy Parker. Coulson's district took in all of Northfield Township and a small slice of Lake County. After the Democratic-controlled remap of 2001, the new 17th District lost the north half of Northfield Township and picked up heavily Jewish -- and Democratic -- precincts in north and east Skokie and the west part of Wilmette. Coulson kept only 35 percent of her old district, while adding 30 Skokie and 20 Wilmette precincts, where she was unknown.

The Democrats designed the district to elect a liberal Jewish Democratic woman, and to oust Coulson. In 2000 Al Gore got 60 percent of the presidential vote, but best-laid plans often go awry. Unlike her Republican brethren, Coulson consistently votes liberal on social issues, supporting abortion rights, gay rights and gun control and opposing school choice. That makes her tough to isolate as a right-wing nut. She also is a fiscal conservative, and she backed medical malpractice reforms. "My voting record puts me in the mainstream of district opinion," Coulson said.

And, to the Democrats' dismay, voters in the district have demonstrated that they won't bounce a competent, personable, Democratic-like Republican for just any Democrat. In 2002 Skokie Democrats staked out Coulson's seat for their own, backing Skokie attorney Mike Bender, who is Jewish and who is the son of a well known judge, for the post, but Bender lost the primary to Pat Hughes of Wilmette by 116 votes. In the ensuing election, Jewish Democratic voters, especially women, voted predictably: Given a choice between two gentiles, they opted for the female candidate over the male candidate. Coulson beat Hughes by 666 votes, while Rod Blagojevich won the district in his governor's race with 53.2 percent of the vote. Coulson got 19,041 votes, running slightly ahead of Jim Ryan, who got 17,014 votes as the Republican nominee for governor.

By 2004 the Democrats got their act together and slated Michele Bromberg, a Skokie trustee who also is Jewish. She fit the demographic, but Coulson fit the district. Bromberg's whole campaign devolved to five words: I am not a Republican. Coulson refused to say whether she supported President George Bush. Bromberg failed to detail how she would have voted differently from Coulson. Bromberg's campaign was run by state Representative Lou Lang, and she spent $452,039, of which $312,001 came from the state Democratic Party. Coulson spent $474,299, of which only about $66,000 came from Springfield Republican sources. The highlight of the campaign was a mailer sent out by Bromberg which contained pictures of Coulson and Senate nominee Alan Keyes, who was running against Barack Obama, with the tag line: Vote against these Republicans.

 The outcome was a stunner. John Kerry beat Bush in the district 33,438-22,885, with 58.8 percent of the vote, and Obama won the district 42,173-11,666, with 78 percent of the vote. But Coulson ran up a huge margin in her Glenview base and trounced Bromberg 28,422-24,315, a margin of 4,107 votes (53.9 percent). Coulson ran more than 5,000 votes ahead of Bush, while Bromberg ran more than 9,000 votes behind Kerry.

Having triumphed in a poisonous political environment in 2004, Coulson should be utterly secure in 2006. No Democratic landslides are afoot, and Blagojevich won't win the district again. "That's not the case," insisted Democratic nominee Judith Rae Ross. "I can win." Ross, Skokie trustee who is Jewish, also fits the Democrats' much-hyped demographic.

According to Ross, Bromberg lost because of her abrasive personality. "Voters are receptive to me," she said.

Thus far, Ross has attacked Coulson on her votes in favor of worker's compensation reform and opposing broadened firefighters' and Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund pensions. In a rare profile in courage, Ross supports raising the state income tax as part of a swap to reduce property taxes. But, given the intensity of Bromberg's assault, Ross's campaign more resembles a squirtgun than an Uzi. Ross will spend no more than $75,000, and Coulson won't spend more than $100,000. "I'm not the (Democrats') number one target in the state," Coulson said.

As always, the election is a referendum on the incumbent. Having survived tough opposition in 2002 and 2004, the 2006 contest is anti-climactic. Coulson will win. My prediction: Coulson will never top 60 percent of the vote, but she'll win by 5,500 votes this year, with about 57 percent of the total.

One of Bromberg's arguing points in 2004 was that if she won she'd be in the House majority and would have more clout. But the reality was that, had she won, she'd have been under the thumb of Democratic House Speaker Mike Madigan, who provided the bulk of her funding. Coulson is under nobody's thumb, but she's also part of a minority that is growing ever smaller. The Democrats hold a 65-53 majority in the House and a 32-27 majority in the Senate. The reason: Suburban voters are no longer habitual Republican voters, and conservative Republicans, especially those who are conservative on social issues, are no longer electable.

Back in 1992, when the Republicans controlled the remap, they won a 32-27 Senate majority but lost the House 67-51. Of the 59 Senate districts, 32 were in Cook, Will, DuPage, Lake and McHenry counties, and of those 32, 12 were wholly in Chicago (all held by Democrats), six were Chicago-suburban (two Republicans and four Democrats), and 14 were wholly suburban (13 Republicans and one Democrat). In 1994 the Republicans picked up 14 House seats and one Senate seat, and every suburban legislative district except those centered on Oak Park, Evanston and Skokie had a Republican legislator.

By 2002 the Republicans were in a free fall. Of the 59 Democratic-designed Senate districts, 33 were wholly within Cook, DuPage, Lake, McHenry and Will counties. Of those, eight were wholly within Chicago (all Democrats), 10 were Chicago-suburban (all Democrats), and 15 were wholly suburban (10 Republicans and five Democrats). The Democratic remap created safe Democratic seats by appending city territory onto suburban districts, and the increasingly liberal vote in areas like the North Shore and eastern Lake County, along with the collapse of the Republicans in Cook County's south suburbs and Will County, has left Northeastern Illinois with only 10 Republican senators (of 33) and 21 representatives of (66).

That shrinkage will continue in 2006, as the northwest suburbs and northern Lake County trend Democratic. The Republicans, due also to ideological divisiveness and factionalism, could lose three more Senate seats. Here's the outlook:

31st Illinois Senate District (north Lake County, including Zion, Gurnee, Antioch, Fox Lake, Grayslake, Round Lake Beach): 28-year incumbent Adeline Geo-Karis narrowly lost this year's Republican primary to her onetime protege, Warren Township Supervisor Suzanne Simpson, by 2,149 votes. The 87-year-old Geo-Karis was supposed to retire in 2006. Simpson announced her candidacy, but then Geo-Karis filed for re-election, prompting a nasty primary in which the senator's health and competency became an issue. The Democratic candidate is Mike Bond, a Grayslake school board member. The outlook: This was a 56 percent Bush district in 2004, but Geo-Karis is only tepidly backing Simpson. Look for a Bond upset.

27th Illinois Senate District (Palatine, Inverness, Arlington Heights, Buffalo Grove): This was a 52.7 percent Bush district. Incumbent Republican Wendell Jones, a conservative, is retiring. He won with 59.9 percent of the vote in 2002. Matt Murphy, a conservative out of Gary Skoien's Palatine Township Republican Organization, beat longtime Palatine Mayor Rita Mullins, a social liberal, by 2,182 votes in the primary. Democrat Peter Gutzmer is trying to exploit the Republican split. The outlook: Murphy will win narrowly.

22nd Illinois Senate District (Hoffman Estates, Streamwood, Elgin, Carpentersville): Incumbent Steve Rauschenberger, who lost GOP primaries for senator (2004) and lieutenant governor (2006), is retiring. Kerry won here with 54.6 percent of the vote. The Republican nominee is Streamwood Mayor Billie Roth, who faces Democrat Mike Noland, who lost a 2004 state House race by 387 votes. The outlook: Roth is a moderate woman in a swing district, the kind who should win, but expect a Noland upset.

33rd Illinois Senate District (Park Ridge, Des Plaines, Mount Prospect, Elk Grove): Appointed incumbent Republican Cheryl Axley has not elevated her name identification, and she is an underdog to hard-campaigning Democrat Dan Kotowski. To demonstrate his "independence," Kotowski has said that he won't vote for Blagojevich. The outlook: This was a 50.5 percent Bush district. Kotowski will win.