As goes the U.S. Senate, so goes the nation.

At present, the Democrats have a 51-49 Senate majority, but the Senate’s Republicans have been able to delay, derail and/or decimate various Democratic U.S. House-passed measures, and to sustain vetoes by President George Bush. That will change after 2008 election.

When the 111th Congress convenes in 2009, it will be the Senate’s minority that will be decimated. Republicans are in a panic mode. Of the 34 Senate seats up for election in 2008, 22 are held by Republicans, and 12 by Democrats. Of the Republican seats, four are open, with the incumbent retiring, and another six to nine are vulnerable. In 2009, Democrats could hold 60 seats.

There is a definite correlation between Senate seats held and presidential states won. In 2000, Bush carried 29 states with 271 electoral votes; of those 29 states, 16 elected a senator, and Republicans won eleven. Of the 21 Al Gore states, 18 elected a senator, and Democrats won 14.

In 2004, Bush carried 31 states with 286 electoral votes; of those 31 states, 22 elected a senator, and Republicans won 17. Of the 19 John Kerry states. 12 elected a senator, and Democrats won ten.

In short, the party of the prevailing presidential candidate wins over 80 percent of the U.S. Senate seats in the states carried.

In 2008, 34 senate seats are up for election – 22 Republicans and 12 Democrats. Of the Republicans, four are from states won by Kerry in 2004: Gordon Smith of Oregon, Norm Coleman of Minnesota, John Sununu of New Hampshire, and Susan Collins of Maine. Four more are retiring, and their seats (Virginia, New Mexico, Nebraska and Colorado) now lean Democratic. Two more – Ted Stevens of Alaska and Larry Craig of Idaho – have ethics problems. And, if an anti-Republican wave crests in 2008, Republican incumbents in Kentucky and North Carolina could  lose.

Ironically, Democrats are upbeat for 2008 at the same time that the Democratic-controlled Congress suffers massive voter disapproval. According to the September Associated Press-Ipsos poll, congressional approval is an anemic 22 percent, fully nine points lower than the president’s. Republicans optimistically cling to the referendum/choice theory. In the past half-century, when the incumbent is on the ballot (1956, 1964, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1992, 1996, 2004), the outcome was a referendum on the president, with Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George Bush losing, respectively, in 1976, 1980 and 1992.

When there is no incumbent running, the popularity – or unpopularity – of the incumbent administration is irrelevant. Instead, it’s a choice. In 1960, 1968, 1988 and 2000, an incumbent vice-president was running, and prevailed only in 1988. In 1960, Republican Dwight Eisenhower was hugely popular, but voters wanted a change. In 1968, Democrat Lyndon Johnson and the Vietnam war were hugely unpopular, but Richard Nixon barely won. In 1988 and 2000, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton were hugely popular, but it wasn’t transferable: George Bush barely won, and Al Gore lost.

In each “choice” election, the strengths and/or flaws of each candidate outweighed their party label. In 1960, after a Democratic sweep in 1958, Republicans made small congressional gains. In 1968, after a Republican sweep in 1966, Republicans made modest gains. In 1988, after a Democratic sweep in 1986, it was a congressional standoff. And in 2000, after slight Republican losses in 1998, Republicans suffered a few more losses.

So the respective party strategies for 2008 are obvious: Democrats will fixate on the Bush Administration, blaming all the country’s ills on the Republicans, and hoisting the flag of “change” – whatever that means. Republicans will pray that, by November 2008, the Iraq War is a non-issue, the economy is stable, and the Democrats nominate a flawed presidential candidate. Then they can cling to the premise of “choice” – hoping that voters will reject Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

Nevertheless, due to both demographic and political trends, as well as superior candidate recruitment, Democrats will win anywhere from five to nine more senate seats in 2008, putting them in range of the magic 60, which means they can end filibusters and force votes. Like the country, the Senate is growing bluer, as Republicans become ever more a regional party, with a base in the South and West.

At present, Republicans hold 21 of 28 seats in the 14 states of the South, which includes the 11 states of the old Confederacy, plus Kentucky, West Virginia and Oklahoma. The 2008 outlook: A Democrat will win the seat of the retiring John Warner (R) in Virginia, and a Republican will defeat incumbent Mary Landrieu (D) in Louisiana, where Hurricane Katrina wiped out a huge number of Democratic voters in New Orleans.

In the eleven Northeastern states, Democrats occupy 17 of 22 seats. The 2008 outlook: Democrats have recruited former Governor Jeanne Shaheen and U.S. Representative Tom Allen, respectively, in New Hampshire and Maine. Both are favored to beat the incumbent Republicans.

In the 12 Midwestern states, Democrats hold 14 of 24 seats. The 2008 outlook: Comedian Al Franken (D) looks weak against incumbent Coleman in Minnesota; he may be too quirky to be credible. A Republican – probably former Governor and current U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns --will hold the open Nebraska seat unless former Senator Bob Kerrey (D) runs. If he does, it’s a toss-up.

In the 13 Western states, Republicans hold 14 of 26 seats. The 2008 outlook: Republican retirements in Colorado and New Mexico, states trending Democratic, will result in the election of Democratic senators. In Alaska, Ted Stevens (R), senator since 1968, had his home recently raided by the IRS and FBI, who are investigating whether Stevens steered federal funding to a former aide’s company. He looks beatable. And Oregon’s Smith (R), despite his votes against the Iraq troop buildup, could lose in an anti-Republican trend.

Here’s a look at key contests:

Louisiana: The state’s population was 4.5 million in 2000, with 1.35 million in the New Orleans metropolitan area. An estimated 450,000 were displaced by Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Some 100,000 have returned, 200,000 remain elsewhere in the state, and 150,000 have moved out-of-state. That’s bad news for Landrieu, who won by 42,012 votes in 2002, and by 5,788 votes in 1996. Her base is New Orleans, and many rural and upstate voters were incensed by her nagging criticism of Bush after the hurricane. A Republican will be elected governor this year, replacing the inept Kathy Blanco (D), who chose to retire. John Kennedy, the Democrat-turned-Republican state treasurer, will beat Landrieu in 2008.

   Virginia: The exploding population in northern Virginia’s suburbs around Washington, D.C. is making the Old Dominion more hospitable to Democrats. Republicans continue to run candidates who stress their anti-tax, anti-abortion, anti-gay, pro-gun stances – thereby turning off moderate suburbanites. In 2006,  Republican Senator George Allen’s racial slur about Asian Indians, coupled with his pro-Bush Iraq position, resulted in a 5,719-vote loss to former Navy Secretary Jim Webb, a Republican-turned-Democrat. Webb ran on a bring-the-troops-home platform.

For 2008, Mark Warner, who was elected governor in 2001 by 96,943 votes, will be the Democratic candidate. His base is northern Virginia, and he is pro-gun and pro-abortion. As governor, he raised taxes. The Republican candidates are Jim Gilmore, a social conservative who was elected governor in 1997 by 230,091 votes, and reduced taxes; and U.S. Representative Tom Davis, a moderate from northern Virginia. Warner has a big early lead in the polls. A divisive Republican primary will insure his victory.

New Hampshire: Kerry won the state in 2004 by 9,274 votes, but Democrats swept every state office in 2006, ousting two Republican congressmen. There is a clear liberal, anti-Iraq, anti-Bush trend. Sununu beat Shaheen, then governor, in 2002 by 19,751 votes (51 percent). In the rematch, Shaheen is leading Sununu by 20 points in the polls. If Iraq is still an issue in 2008, Sununu will lose.

Maine: Incumbent Collins is a liberal on social issues, but being a Republican may be an insurmountable burden in 2008. Witness the fate of Republican Lincoln Chafee, with an anti-Bush record on domestic and foreign policy issues, who lost his Rhode Island seat in 2006. Democrat Allen, a congressman since 1996, will likely win.

Colorado: This marginal state seems to run on ten-year cycles. It was Republican during the 1960s and 1990s, Democratic during the 1970s and 1980s, and is now trending strongly Democratic, electing a Democratic governor and legislature in 2006, and a senator in 2004. Republican  Wayne Allard is retiring, and Mark Udall (D) and Bob Schaffer (R) are the expected nominees. Udall is favored.

New Mexico: Republican Pete Dominici is retiring after 36 years. If Democratic Governor Bill Richardson, currently running for president, switches to the senate race, he’ll win. If not, given state trends, a Democrat will win the seat.