It will be remembered as "Black Tuesday." Or the "Big Black Blowout." In the Feb. 5 Democratic primary, black candidates will be nominated for three Cook County offices (state's attorney, recorder and clerk of the Circuit Court) and two Appellate Court vacancies, and Barack Obama will win the state's presidential primary.

Here's an analysis of the Obama-Clinton race and the 2nd District Board of Review race, plus my intrepid predictions of key Chicago, Cook County and congressional races.

President (Democratic): Black Democrats excelled in the 1983, 1992, 2000 and 2004 primaries. In 2008 it's a replication of 1992 and 2004. Black turnout in Chicago and Cook County will be huge. Obama wins, but by how much?

In the 1992 U.S. Senate primary, against two white foes, Recorder of Deeds Carol Moseley Braun got 409,574 votes (47.3 percent of the total) in Cook County and 148,120 votes Downstate and in the Collar Counties, winning statewide with just 38.3 percent of the vote. In the 2004 primary Obama got 464,917 votes (64.4 percent of the vote) in Cook County and 191,006 votes elsewhere, winning statewide with 52.8 percent of the vote.

Democratic turnout was 1.63 million in 1992 and 1.3 million in 2004. Bill Clinton got 776,829 votes (51.6 percent of the total) in 1992, including 435,599 votes from Cook County and 341,230 from elsewhere. Turnout will be near 1.5 million on Feb. 5, and a lot of the 2004 Obama voters -- particularly liberal Baby Boomer women -- will opt for Hillary Clinton.

My prediction: While Mayor Rich Daley has endorsed Obama, his loyal white committeemen are doing nothing. Race is a factor. Many white voters, especially outside of Chicago, will vote against Obama. In Chicago and the North Shore, liberal whites will back Obama, while in the outlying white ethnic wards and suburbs, moderate and conservative Democrats will back Clinton. The outcome: Obama will finish first with 675,000 votes (45 percent of the total), to 600,000 votes (40 percent) for Clinton and 225,000 votes (15 percent) for John Edwards.

Board of Review (2nd District): Incumbent Joe Berrios hasn't raised more than $1.6 million just because he's a swell guy. The board reduces tax assessments, saving corporate property owners millions of dollars and home owners thousands of dollars. This year Berrios, the 31st Ward Democratic committeeman and the county Democratic chairman, and the most powerful Hispanic county politician, is spending it all.

Jay Paul Deratany is a personal injury attorney who is using his reaped rewards -- spending at least $800,000 on his campaign. Deratany is backed by U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky and a bunch of Lakefront liberals.

A key player in this race is county Assessor Jim Houlihan, who has donated $100,000 to Deratany. In 2006 Houlihan recruited and funded (with $84,000) the candidacy of Brendan Houlihan (no relation), who upset Republican Board of Review commissioner Maureen Murphy by fewer than 4,000 votes. In 2007 Houlihan's senior aide, Ron Messina, was appointed chairman of the state Property Tax Appeal Board, which hears appeals from the Board of Review. If Deratany wins, Houlihan will have complete vertical control of the assessment process, will be able to raise enormous campaign cash from property owners, and will be in a position to fund a run for mayor in 2011. Another key player is Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, whose law firm handles a boatload of commercial property tax appeals and who reaps a bonanza of contributions to his House campaign fund from satisfied clients.

Houlihan ripped Madigan during 2007, accusing Madigan of blocking renewal of the 7 percent assessment cap so as to aid his law firm. The cap eventually passed. Madigan wants Berrios to win. My prediction: The 2nd District takes in the predominantly white and Hispanic areas of Chicago. Berrios will triumph with 55 percent of the vote.

Other predictions:

Cook County State's Attorney: Like Mount Vesuvius, which erupted in 79 A.D. and destroyed Pompeii, a bunch of Democratic contenders -- Tom Allen, Larry Suffredin, Bob Milan and Anita Alvarez -- are eagerly waiting for a similar eruption to immolate black contender Howard Brookins. The eruption will be too late.

Brookins' qualifications for the post of chief prosecutor are thin, as are Allen's and Suffredin's. Milan and Alvarez work for outgoing State's Attorney Dick Devine, who has endorsed Milan. Brookins is black, and he will get 70 to 80 percent of the black vote. Brookins has denied charges that he's a rental deadbeat, that he didn't pay employees' withholding taxes and that he owned property with code violations. The latest charge is that, as alderman, he put his new wife on the payroll of a developer in his 21st Ward for whom he got $11.6 million in city funding.

My prediction: Black voters will back Obama and Brookins, while white and Hispanic voters will split their votes. Brookins will win with 32 percent of the vote, with Allen a close second, but any further eruptions will aid Republican Tony Peraica in November.

Recorder of Deeds: Incumbent Gene Moore and West Side Alderman Ed Smith (28th) are battling for the nomination to an inconsequential post. Daley has endorsed Smith, but most black -- and virtually all white -- Democratic committeemen are supporting Moore. Moore will win with 55 percent of the vote.

Appellate Court (1st District): The district takes in all of Cook County. In 2006 the party slated two white men for two vacancies; one lost to a black woman. In 2008 there again are two vacancies. Incumbent Alan Greiman, who has served since 1991, faces two Circuit Court judges, Sharon Coleman, who is black, and William O'Neal, who is white. For the second spot, Circuit Court Judge John Steele, a black former alderman, faces Judge Richard Walsh and Frank Gardner. The outlook: The "Big Black Blowout" will ensure the nomination of Coleman and Steele.

50th Ward Democratic Committeeman (West Rogers Park): Incumbent Berny Stone, the ward's alderman since 1973, faces his protege, state Senator Ira Silverstein. "It's tough to run (for committeeman)," Silverstein said. "Jewish voters think I'm trying to take Berny's (aldermanic) job away." Silverstein supports Obama, and he is backed by Schakowsky and the ward's anti-Stone forces; he also is endorsed by Daley. Stone is backing Clinton. My prediction: Stone, age 80, has no ground game. In the predominantly Jewish area west of Western Avenue, he will get 55 percent of the vote, but in the east end of the ward, with many recent immigrants, Silverstein will get 60 percent of the vote. That's a 300-vote Silverstein win.

41st Ward (Edison Park, Norwood Park, Edgebrook, Gladstone Park): Ralph Capparelli is over the hill, but his opponents are still under the radar. Capparelli, age 83, is the Democratic committeeman in Chicago's most Republican ward. Foes Mary O'Connor, Frank Coconate and Pat Mulligan attack Capparelli for his ineffectuality. Coconate hits O'Connor as a plant of Republican Alderman Brian Doherty. My prediction: Against a single foe, Capparelli would lose. Against three, he wins.

7th Ward (South Hyde Park): It's like shooting fish in a barrel -- and the "Jackson Clan" has the revolver. In 2007 Sandi Jackson, the wife of U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr., beat appointed Alderman Darcel Beavers, the daughter of long-time Alderman Bill Beavers (1983 to 2006), with 57 percent of the vote. Now she's running against the old man, now a county commissioner, for committeeman. My prediction: Bye-bye "Beavers Clan." Jackson will win easily, and the South Side will be "Jesseland."

43rd Ward (Lincoln Park): It's up for grabs. Alderman Vi Daley is retiring in 2011, and Democratic committeeman Peg Roth is quitting in 2008. 2007 aldermanic losers Michele Smith and Tim Egan are running for committeeman, as is Chuck Eastwood, Daley's top aide. My prediction: Smith will win, giving her an edge for alderman in 2011.

3rd U.S. House District (southwest Cook County suburbs, Chicago's Southwest Side): You can't beat a nobody who is related to somebody with a bunch of nobodies. Democrat Dan Lipinski is a congressman because his father resigned and got his fellow committeemen to anoint his son. Lipinski, who won the 2006 primary with 54 percent of the vote, faces three foes, former assistant state's attorney Mark Pera, attorney Jim Capparelli and Palos Hills Mayor Jerry Bennett. My prediction: Lipinski wins.

10th U.S. House District (North Shore and east Lake County): The "surge" in Iraq is working. The U.S. presence in Iraq has diminished Arab terrorism in Israel. Jay Footlik, a lobbyist and former Clinton Administration liaison to the Jewish community, is running as a "Friend of Israel." 2006 loser Dan Seals, who got 47 percent of the vote, is running on a get-out-of-Iraq-now platform. Footlik argues that an anti-Iraq, anti-Israel Democrat like Seals can't win. Incumbent Republican Mark Kirk contends that the best way to protect Israel is to succeed in Iraq. The outlook: Seals will be nominated.

14th U.S. House District (Kane and Kendall counties, and rural areas): Is there Oberweis fatigue? Oberweis ran statewide in 2002, 2004 and 2006, losing each time and spending a total of $6 million. He's already spent $1.6 million to win the Republican nomination to replace the retired Dennis Hastert, who has endorsed him. He faces state Senator Chris Lauzen in the primary. Oberweis denies that he will be a one-termer and use the job to run for governor in 2010. Oberweis will win, and then run for governor.