To
use that hackneyed expression, the Hispanic
Democratic Organization's influence in Chicago
politics ain't over until it's over.
It
won't be over before the 2007 municipal election.
It will be over if and when former HDO chieftains
Victor Reyes and Al Sanchez get indicted and
convicted.
The
HDO was created to be Mayor Rich Daley's political
machine in the city's Hispanic wards. And,
according news reports surrounding the U.S.
attorney's Hired Truck probe, the feds are looking
into whether Reyes, the mayor's former Office of
Intergovernmental Affairs director, and Sanchez,
the former Department of Streets and Sanitation
commissioner, conspired to hire Hispanics for city
jobs who had done precinct work for the mayor's
candidates or to promote those who did. That would
violate the federal Shakman decree, which bans
political hiring, firing or promotions.
Longtime
HDO critic Frank Avila called the organization a
"criminal enterprise." Avila will be
prophetic if Reyes and Sanchez go down. And if
they are convicted, how can the mayor disclaim any
knowledge of their activities? Daley would be
next, but that won't happen before the Feb. 27
election.
The
HDO is alive, well and functional. It has set
several priorities for 2007, including boosting
Daley's vote in Hispanic wards, re-electing
Aldermen John Pope (10th), George Cardenas (12th)
and Ariel Reboyras (30th), and electing challenger
Joaquin Salamaca against incumbent Ricardo Munoz
(22nd).
Eleven
wards have Hispanic majorities, but three will
retain their white aldermen: Pope, Ed Burke (14th)
and Dick Mell (33rd). Eight wards have Hispanic
aldermen -- four of Mexican descent and four who
are Puerto Rican. There is intense rivalry between
those groups. Here's a look at Hispanic ward
contests:
1st
Ward (West Town, part of Ukrainian Village on the
Near West Side): The HDO exerted a Herculean
effort to re-elect Jesse Granato in 2003, but he
lost to anti-HDO independent Manny Flores in this
gentrifying ward by 1,573 votes in a runoff.
Flores, a young attorney, harbors hopes of running
for mayor or Congress in the future, and he is
allied with Avila.
But
Flores is now a Daley supporter, and he has raised
$283,614, much from developers. The outsider is
now an insider. Flores is unopposed.
12th
Ward (East Little Village, Brighton Park on the
South Side): The HDO's loyalty is never permanent.
Ray Frias, a pro-HDO former city police officer,
was elected alderman in this predominantly
Mexican-American ward in 1995. He was indicted for
bribe taking in the "Silver Shovel"
investigation and was found not guilty in 1998,
and he won re-election in 1999 with 63 percent of
the vote. But in 2003 Frias' HDO clout was dwarfed
by that of Cook County Commissioner Joseph Mario
Moreno, who backed George Cardenas for alderman.
In
a monumental upset, Cardenas finished with 2,121
votes (45 percent of the votes cast), to Frias'
2,173 (46 percent). Recognizing that he would lose
the runoff to Cardenas, Frias conceded. For this
election, the HDO is behind Cardenas, who faces
six foes. The most formidable are Jesus Salazar, a
liberal independent, and Carina Sanchez, who is
backed by Frias, the Mexican-American Chamber of
Commerce and the Service Employees' International
Union. Also running are Jesse Iniguez, Alan
Mercado, Jose Rodriguez and Al Bocanegra. The
outlook: Expect a Cardenas-Sanchez runoff. A
Cardenas loss would be a huge HDO embarrassment.
22nd
Ward (West Little Village, South Lawndale on the
Near South Side): This predominantly
Mexican-American ward has been represented by
anti-HDO Ricardo Munoz since 1995. Munoz has been
an occasional critic of Daley, and he is angling
to run for Congress in 2008 in the 4th District
Munoz
won with 54.8 percent of the vote in 1995 and with
66 percent in 1999, and he was unopposed in 2003.
But the ward's density and gang problems, coupled
with Munoz' reputation for not providing services,
means he is beatable. The HDO candidate is
businessman Joaquin Salamaca. Also running are
August Sallas, who lost in 1999 with 10 percent of
the vote, and Jose Gutierrez. The outlook: U.S.
Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-4) has announced
his retirement in 2008, and everybody running for
that job wants to see Munoz defeated in 2007, to
get him out of the race. The outlook: Expect
Salamaca to win.
25th
Ward (Near West Side, around the medical center
complex, and Pilsen): Incumbent Danny Solis, the
mayor's favorite Hispanic alderman and an HDO
beneficiary, also is running for Congress in 2008.
In this Mexican-American ward, Solis should be
secure, but he faces six foes, including convicted
former alderman Ambrosio Medrano, former state
representative Juan Soliz, Aaron del Valle, Joe
Acevedo, Martha Padillo and Cuahutemoc Morfin.
A
recent court decision held that convicted felons,
such as Medrano, who was convicted in the
"Silver Shovel" probe, cannot run for
public office. That could knock Medrano off the
ballot. Solis was appointed by Daley to replace
Medrano in 1997, and he won with 81 percent of the
vote in 1999 and with 54 percent in 2003. But the
HDO is fractured. Del Valle is a former aide to
Sanchez, and Acevedo is the brother of state
Representative Eddie Acevedo (D-2), a staunch HDO
ally.
The
outlook: Solis will be in a runoff, against either
del Valle or Acevedo. In a 12th Ward-like
situation, the HDO could back his foe. Solis is in
danger.
26th
Ward (West Town): Incumbent Billy Ocasio took this
Puerto Rican-majority ward in 1993, after his
mentor, then-Alderman Luis Gutierrez, went to
Congress. Daley appointed Ocasio, who won with
57.9 percent of the vote in 1995, with 54 percent
in 1999 and with 76 percent in 2003. Since
Gutierrez is not running for mayor in 2007, the
generally pro-Daley Ocasio can openly back the
mayor.
Ocasio
had HDO backing in the past, but he faces a
curious situation in 2007. Jesse Granato, who lost
his 1st Ward seat in 2003, is challenging Ocasio,
as are Sammy Maldonado and Onix Vera. Granato is a
longtime HDO loyalist. Rumors abound that
Gutierrez may recant his retirement decision and
run again in 2008.
The
26th Ward is Gutierrez' political base. If Granato
upsets Ocasio, the message to Gutierrez will be
clear: Stay retired. The outlook: Ocasio will win.
30th
Ward (Near Northwest Side, Cragin, Avondale):
Ariel Reboyras, a longtime HDO operative, won this
Puerto Rican-majority ward seat in 2003 with a
stunning 77 percent of the vote.
Reboyras
faces two 2007 foes: The anti-HDO Jose Anthony
Alvarez, who is of Cuban ancestry and who lost a
2002 Democratic primary for the Illinois House in
the 3rd District to incumbent Willie Delgado by 24
votes; and Wayne Strnad, who got 23.3 percent of
the vote in a 2004 primary against Delgado and 6
percent in a 2003 race for alderman in the 29th
Ward.
The
outlook: Alvarez's brother, Al, is a close ally of
Dick Mell, and Mell will send workers into the
ward. Alvarez will run well, but absent a Reyes or
Sanchez indictment, Reboyras will win.
31st
Ward (West Logan Square): In this Puerto
Rican-majority ward, Democratic Committeeman Joe
Berrios, who also is a powerful Board of Review
commissioner, reigns supreme. The alderman is Ray
Suarez, a Berrios ally first elected in 1991 with
70.8 percent of the vote; he was unopposed in
1995, got 62 percent of the vote in 1999 and was
unopposed in 2003. Suarez faces Renne Chavez and
Ray Hernandez in 2007, and he will win easily.
For
decades, the pro-HDO Berrios/Suarez faction has
been feuding with the anti-HDO independents allied
with state Senator Miguel del Valle (D-2) and
state Representative Willie Delgado (D-3). But
that's now history. Peace has broken out.
Daley
appointed del Valle as the city clerk in 2006. In
the ensuing deal making, Delgado got del Valle's
Senate seat and Luis Arroyo, a member of Berrios'
organization, got Delgado's House seat. In fact,
Berrios now has two state representatives from his
ward, Arroyo and his daughter, Toni Berrios
(D-39).
35th
Ward (Logan Square): Mell, known derisively as
"Old Gringo" among Hispanic politicians,
interceded in 1995 to elect Vilma Colom as
alderman in the newly created Puerto
Rican-majority ward. She won with 59 percent of
the vote in the 1995 runoff and with 61 percent in
1999. She was allied with the HDO.
But,
becoming arrogant, Colom alienated her allies and
supporters and she lost in 2003 to the anti-HDO
Rey Colon, getting just 42 percent of the vote.
She had beaten Colon in 1999. And, virtually
seconds after winning, Colon became a Daley
supporter and an HDO ally.
Also
running are Esteban Burgon, James Villalpando and
Miguel Sotomayor. The outlook: With HDO and Daley
backing, Colon will win a second term.
City
Clerk: Del Valle, who is Puerto Rican, was a state
senator for 19 years, and he never was a Daley
ally. In fact, he broke into politics as a Harold
Washington supporter. In 2007 he faces opposition
from Jose Cerda III, Tom O'Brien, Dozier Thomas,
George Sims, Diane Jones and Sally Johnson.
As
a Daley appointee, del Valle will get support in
white wards. As a longtime independent, he will
run strong on the Lakefront and in black wards,
and he will sweep the Hispanic wards. And that
makes a lot of his Hispanic rivals nervous, as del
Valle now is in a position to be mayor some day.