It is often said that those who make predictions invite the opportunity to be made a fool. For decades the Northwest Side political class has dismissed this columnist as demented, deluded and/or just full of (expletive), and scoffed at my periodic predictions -- even though my accuracy has been over 70 percent.

Now, for all you wise guys and girls, here's your chance to be "Smarter than Stewart." I predict, you predict, and a year from now we find out who's the dummy. It works like this: Following are 12 speculative questions, requiring a predictive answer. Mine are at the end of the column. By Feb. 2, send your answers to Nadig Newspapers or to my Web site with your name and phone number. If you're "Smarter than Stewart," you'll get your name in my column and I'll buy you a dinner.

1. As the nation's economic recession deepens into a depression, unemployment climbs and consumer spending shrivels, Illinois' expenditures now exceed tax revenues by at least $5 billion for fiscal year 2009. By comparison, California has a $53 billion shortfall. Quinn and the Democratic legislature will:

a. Increase the state income tax 
b. concoct a scheme of new indebtedness, bonds and borrowing 
c. cut spending by 5 percent

2. It is common knowledge that Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, as the crowning achievement of his long career, wants to make his daughter, state Attorney General Lisa Madigan, the next governor. Blagojevich's impeachment removes one impediment. But Quinn, as the new governor, will seek to retain the job. The filing deadline for 2010 is in November. The Democratic field for the Feb. 2, 2010, primary will include:

a. Quinn 
b. Madigan 
c. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias 
d. State Representative Jack Franks 
e. State Comptroller Dan Hynes

3. It's just January, so newly appointed U.S. Senator Roland Burris has plenty of time to erase the stain of being Blagojevich's choice. Burris is the only African-American member of the Senate, and he is committed to running for a full term in 2010. If any other black candidate, such as U.S. Representatives Jesse Jackson Jr. or Danny Davis, has the temerity to run against him in the primary, they would split the black vote and a white candidate would win. Giannoulias, Hynes, U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky and wealthy lawyer Bob Clifford are exploring challenges. Blacks comprise about one-third of the primary electorate. If it's Burris against several white candidates, he wins; if it's one electable white candidate against Burris, Burris loses. In 2010 Burris will be:

a. defeated in the primary 
b. nominated and defeated in the election 
c. nominated and elected to a full term.

4. Rahm Emanuel his resigned his 5th U.S. House District seat and a special election has been set for April 7, with the primary on March 3. The Democratic field includes several heavyweights, including state Representatives John Fritchey and Sara Feigenholtz, county Commissioner Mike Quigley and Alderman Pat O'Connor. Democratic ward and township committeemen made no endorsement at their slatemaking session, but the most powerful are backing Fritchey. Turnout will be anemic. The lower it is, the better for Fritchey; the higher, the better for Feigenholtz. Whoever best postures as the "different" candidate --  unconnected to Blagojevich and the corrupt status quo -- will win. The next congressman will be:

a. Fritchey 
b. Feigenholtz 
c. Quigley 
d. O'Connor

5.  An image, once obtained, is indelible. Todd Stroger, the Cook County Board president and an ally of Mayor Rich Daley, is widely perceived as inept and incompetent. But in the 2010 primary, with Burris on the ballot, black solidarity will lift all boats, including Stroger's. County commissioners Forrest Claypool and Quigley have been relentless in their criticism of Stroger. Both plan to run in 2010, unless Quigley wins the congressional race. Two white candidates would divide the anti-Stroger vote, and Daley's South Side white allies will divert a few votes to Stroger. Paul Vallas, the former Chicago schools chief executive officer, will soon switch parties and run as a Republican. If it's Vallas versus Stroger, Vallas can win. Stroger hopes that Quigley loses on March 3, as he cannot win a one-on-one race versus Claypool. Those filing in November will be:

a. Stroger 
b. Claypool 
c. Quigley 
d. County Commissioner Larry Suffredin 
e. Vallas (Republican) 
f. County Commissioner Tony Peraica (Republican) 
g. County Commissioner Liz Gorman (Republican)

 

The economy will be a huge issue in 2010. The stock market lost 34 percent of its value in 2008. Unemployment is at 6.7 percent. Retail sales are at their lowest level since 1969. The national debt is nearly $10 trillion.

The Obama Administration can pursue one of five historical options: (1) Corporatism, with the federal government intervening to prop up businesses and a goal of sustaining the status quo. (2) Keynesian economics, with the government borrowing and running up huge deficits so as to fund public works projects to combat unemployment. (3) Conservatism, with a reduction in spending or increase in taxes to reduce the deficit and avoid inflation. (4) Reflationism, with a vast expansion of the money supply to counteract declining asset values. (5) Structuralism, with wage and price controls and a break-up of monopolistic corporations.

Option three will exacerbate the recession, constricting credit and spending. Option five will stagnate the economy and invite later inflation. President Obama appears likely to adopt a mix of options one, two and four. Here are some economic predictions:

6. Unemployment was 20.3 percent at the height of the Great Depression in 1935, and it dropped to 4.7 percent at the beginning of World War II. It was 6.6 percent in 1961, 9.0 percent in 1975, 10.8 percent in 1982 and 5.4 percent in 1988. It's now 6.7 percent nationwide and 7.6 percent in Illinois. In 2009 the nationwide unemployment rate will be:

a. 7.5 percent 
b. 8 percent 
c. 8.5 percent 
d. 10 percent

7. The Bush Administration bailed out the "Big Three" auto makers in December with a $34 billion loan. Executives of Ford, Chrysler and General Motors claim to need $75 billion to survive 2009, and Congress is demanding structural and environmental changes in auto manufacture. Which will be in bankruptcy by the end of 2009?

a. Ford 
b. Chrysler 
c. General Motors 
d. all three.

8.  Job losses, poor credit, price deflation and lack of cash availability for a down payment (or refinance) has paralyzed the housing resale and refinance markets. Existing owners, desirous of selling, fear a meager profit. Buyers fear that after purchase their property's value will decline further. Another torrent of foreclosures will occur in 2009-10, as sub-prime borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages will be compelled to refinance property valued at less than their mortgage balance. Home sales were down 41.3 percent in Chicago and 32.3 percent in the suburbs in 2008. It hasn't been this bad since 1990. Property values are down 15.9 percent. In 2009 the value of real estate will:

a. be stable 
b. decline by 5 percent 
c. decline by 10 percent 
d. decline by 15 to 20 percent 
e. increase.

9. The area housing market will be rebound -- meaning that home values will begin to increase -- in:

a. 2009 
b. 2010 
c. 2011 
d. 2012 or later

10. The consumer price index declined by 1.7 percent in November, as the cost of homes, energy, autos and department store items dropped. Holiday season spending was horrendous. A recession is defined as two or more quarters of decline in gross domestic product, and we're in one. Congress has passed an $825 billion stimulus package. By the end of 2009 America will be in:

a. a recovery 
b. a deepening recession 
c. a depression

11. During the presidential campaign Obama reiterated that he opposed the Iraq invasion and the troop increase and that he would immediately begin to remove the 146,000 troops if elected, with all home in 16 months. By the end of the year, there will be:

a. total withdrawal 
b. no withdrawal 
c. a drawdown of a couple thousand troops

12. Obama promised "change we need" in 2008. By the end of 2009, the president's approval ratings will be:

a.70 percent 
b. 60 percent 
c. 50 percent 
d. 40 percent

How to respond: There are 12 questions. Either e-mail your predictions to russ@russstewart.com or mail them to Nadig Newspapers by Feb. 2.

My predictions: 1a, 2ab, 3a, 4a, 5abef, 6c, 7ab, 8c, 9c, 10c, 11b, 12c.