Alderman Pat O'Connor (40th) heard his congressional death knell clang loudly on Jan. 10, when 19 Northwest Side and suburban Democratic committeemen met and decided that they would not endorse a candidate in the March 3 primary for the open 5th U.S. House District seat.

And O'Connor has nobody to blame but himself. He committed several cardinal sins: He hesitated, prevaricated and vacillated, and he trusted his fellow committeemen. As a result, he got his head handed to him on a platter.

Remember this: These are the same committeemen who in 1996, at the behest of Alderman Dick Mell (33rd), slated state Representative Rod Blagojevich, Mell's son-in-law, to be the Democratic nominee for U.S. representative. Blagojevich was narrowly nominated and easily elected. In 2002 these same committeemen did their utmost to nominate him for governor.

All Illinoisans will surely echo this reproof: Thanks a lot, you morons. Had you not made him a congressman, he would not have become governor, and he would not now be in the midst of an impeachment.

In 2002, with the 5th District seat open, Mayor Rich Daley decreed that area committeemen support former Clinton White House aide Rahm Emanuel. They did, and Emanuel won the primary with 50.5 percent of the vote. Emanuel is now the chief of staff in the Obama White House, and he has resigned his congressional seat. A special election is set for April 7, but the March 3 Democratic primary will effectively determine the next occupant of the seat.

O'Connor, age 54, was first elected alderman in 1983 at the age of 28, having supported Rich Daley in the Washington-Byrne-Daley mayoral primary. O'Connor is now the mayor's unofficial floor leader in the City Council. A deft politician who harbored lofty political ambitions, O'Connor lost the 1990 Democratic primary for state's attorney and the 1992 election for state's attorney. Had he run again in 1996, instead of Daley crony Dick Devine, O'Connor would have won.

When Emanuel announced on Nov. 6 that he would follow Obama and quit, O'Connor could have wrapped up the job. All he needed were a few simple sentences.

First, he needed to publicly declare: "I want the job."

And second, he needed to pressure Daley, his erstwhile ally and leader, into publicly declaring: "I want O'Connor in Congress."

Neither utterance was forthcoming. O'Connor failed to pull the proverbial trigger. Daley didn't intercede. And O'Connor's fellow committeemen (some of whom are fellow aldermen) betrayed him. After 25 years in politics, O'Connor learned a hard lesson: You can't trust anybody, especially when a powerful job is at stake.

The Democratic vote in the February 2008 primary was 125,767.  At the slatemaking session, each committeeman cast a weighted vote equivalent to the Democratic vote in his ward in the primary. O'Connor got a measly 22,901 votes (18.2 percent of the total), coming from his 40th Ward and the adjacent 39th Ward of Committeeman Randy Barnette. A hefty 61,529 votes were cast for state Representative John Fritchey (D-11), just 1,355 shy of a majority. Another 41,341 votes were undesignated. Since nobody got a majority, the committeemen voted for an open primary in which each ward and township organization can support whom it chooses.

Fritchey, unlike O'Connor, had a game plan. He wanted no endorsement, as that would have committed each committeeman to support the slated candidate, and he didn't want to be endorsed, as a definite stigma attaches to being the "bosses' candidate." Now Fritchey's got the best of all possible worlds: He's not endorsed, but he's supported by all the key district ward organizations.

Fritchey was backed by an impressive array of committeemen, all of whom supposedly were supporting O'Connor: Mell, shamelessly the player, Alderman Bill Banks (36th), whose brother is Fritchey's father-in-law, Alderman Pat Levar (45th), Alderman Gene Schulter (47th), whose reported deal is that he can name Fritchey's Illinois House successor, and 38th Ward Committeeman Patti Jo Cullerton.

But remember this: Fritchey got Blagojevich's Illinois House seat in 1996 as part of a deal between Mell and Banks in which Banks backed Blagojevich for Congress and Mell punched Fritchey's ticket to Springfield. Now the deal is this: The "Banks Clan" gets the congressional seat, Schulter gets the state House seat, and O'Connor -- because Daley didn't intervene -- gets screwed.

With the Jan. 19 filing deadline passed, here's the Democratic field:

*Fritchey, age 44, has been a vociferous critic of Blagojevich, and he sponsored a bill to limit "pay-to-play" campaign contributions from state contractors. He is the 32nd Ward Democratic committeeman, but his House district encompasses, at best, 10 percent of the congressional district. West of California Avenue and north of Lawrence Avenue, he is utterly unknown. But Fritchey has two key advantages: He has a longstanding anti-Blagojevich record, and he is backed by the bulk of the committeemen who put Blagojevich into office. In a low-turnout primary, Fritchey would be the favorite. The committeeman can deliver pluralities for Fritchey in their wards.

*State Representative Sara Feigenholtz (D-12), age 52, has served in Springfield since 1995, and she calls herself the "progressive reform" -- meaning liberal -- candidate in the race. Feigenholtz' district is to the east of Fritchey's, extending along the Lakefront from Elm Street to Lawrence, east of Racine Avenue, and taking in not more than 5 percent of the 5th District. West of Sheffield Avenue, Feigenholtz is utterly unknown.

But Feigenholtz has three key advantages: First, she has already raised $300,000, she can expect another $250,000 from feminist Emily's List political action committee, and she will raise another $200,000. With a 2000 population of 654,647, the 5th District contains roughly 165,000 households, but the number of Democratic households, given their vote of 125,000, is roughly 40,000. If Feigenholtz spends $500,000 on direct mail, that equals 10 pieces set to every household during February.

Second, she is the only woman in the race, as well as the most liberal and the most gay-friendly candidate. Based on gender alone, she will run a close second in the western wards while carrying the Lakefront wards.

Third, she is the least conventional candidate.

*O'Connor has filed to run anyway, but he will get no traction. If he couldn't get slated, he surely won't get nominated. No other committeeman will back him. He'll be lucky to get 10 percent of the vote -- an absolute humiliation.

*Mike Quigley, a Cook County commissioner from the Lakefront 10th County Board District, was first elected in 2002. Barely 5 percent of Quigley's district is in the 5th District, but Quigley, along with county Commissioner Forrest Claypool, have been persistent critics of County Board President Todd Stroger and his policies. "He's very well known," Claypool said. "He's gotten a lot of media visibility on county issues."

Of course, Quigley's candidacy is a win-win situation for Claypool. If Quigley goes to Washington, he won't be a contender for County Board president in 2010, giving Claypool a clear shot at Stroger in the primary, and if Quigley loses, his credibility suffers. Quigley will run as a liberal reformer. The question is: Does he drain more ideological and geographic votes away from Feigenholtz than non-gender (meaning male) votes from Fritchey? The answer: Fritchey suffers more.

Eleven other candidates filed in the Democratic primary: Justin Oberman, Charles Wheelan, Victor Forys, Frank Annunzio, Pete Dagher, Cary Capparelli, Tom Geoghegan, Jan Donatelli, Roger Thompson, Paul Bryar and Chris Monteagudo.

Here's the early outlook:

Turnout: Last Feb. 5 the turnout was astronomical: 125,767. In the 2006 primary it was 64,653. Emanuel beat Nancy Kaszak in 2002 by 11,058 votes, getting 50.5 percent of the vote in a turnout of 92,625. Blagojevich beat Kaszak in 1996 by 7,792 votes, getting 49.8 percent of the vote in a turnout of 68,043. Turnout on March 3 will barely eclipse 35,000. In a multi-candidate field, whoever gets 15,000 votes is the winner.

Positioning: Given the sour, almost toxic, atmosphere suffusing Illinois, 5th District Democratic contenders will aggressively distance themselves from Blagojevich and the morass of corruption in government. Feigenholtz, in particular, has the money to hang the "politics as usual" necklace around Fritchey. Watch her ads: "Another Blagojevich," she will say of Fritchey. It will be effective.

Motivation: Who votes? Machine committeemen in the 33rd, 36th, 38th, 39th, 45th and 47th wards ought to be able to turn out at least 3,000 votes each for Fritchey, but Feigenholtz will get 2,000-plus votes in each ward. If the Quigley vote equals that of Feigenholtz in the area east of Damen Avenue, Fritchey wins.

The bottom line: Fritchey needs half the vote in the area between Damen and Cumberland Avenue and a quarter of the vote in the eastern portion of the district. The key will be the western suburbs, in Leyden Township, where nobody is known. Expect a mass invasion of Chicago precinct workers for Fritchey. To win, Fritchey needs half of the suburban vote.

My early prediction: Feigenholtz' "I'm not a corrupt Blagojevich Democrat" posture is the right image at the right time, but it all comes down to turnout. If it's less than 30,000, Fritchey wins; if it's more than 40,000, it will be a Feigenholtz upset.