To mangle an old phrase, hell hath no fury like a father-in-law scorned.

According to Alderman Dick Mell (33rd), the father-in-law of Governor Rod Blagojevich, he is the proverbial "old wife" who has been used and spurned. "(Blagojevich) uses people, and he used me," Mell is quoted as saying. "He uses everybody, and when there's no more use, he discards them."

Mell, who plucked Blagojevich from obscurity and engineered his election to the Illinois House in 1992 and to the U.S. House in 1996, and who was instrumental in his son-in-law's nomination and election as governor in 2002, now concludes that Blagojevich is the type of guy who, as he puts it, would "throw anyone under the bus."

But this familial spat took on critical importance when Mell accused chief Blagojevich fund raiser Chris Kelly of "trading appointments to commissions for checks for $50,000" to the governor's campaign fund and used the word "criminality." That allegation triggered a joint investigation by the offices of Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Cook County State's Attorney Dick Devine, who now have relevant state personnel records, as well as Kelly's demand for a retraction by Mell, coupled with the threat of a lawsuit for defamation. The saga will continue.

It is common knowledge that last August Blagojevich, after receiving two $25,000 contributions, appointed both donors to the Illinois Health Facilities Planning Board, a powerful commission that regulates hospital expansion. Kelly, in a press conference, admitted that he has "made (hiring) recommendations" to the governor.

 In addition, a gaggle of tenacious reporters are eager to lend a hand, busily cross-referencing hefty contributions with Blagojevich appointments to state jobs, commissions and boards. That information is public record, and it can be obtained through freedom of information requests. Blagojevich raised and spent $25 million in the 2001-02 period to win the governorship, and he has banked another $10 million for his 2006 campaign. Although the governor declared that the investigation will prove him to be "clean as a hound's tooth" and authorized his own investigation by the state inspector general, the odds are that at least a few of his appointees were big donors or that some big donors got state contracts.

Should that be the case, an appearance of impropriety would surface, thereby transforming the 2006 gubernatorial landscape and perhaps prompting a Democratic primary challenge and a U.S. attorney investigation. Instead of running for re-election as the "reform" governor, Blagojevich would suddenly become "Mr. Quid Pro Quo" -- the guy who trades jobs for cash. And, given the fact that Blagojevich's predecessor, George Ryan, will soon go on trial, charged with raising campaign cash from employees who took bribes for driver's licenses, the mood of the voting public in 2006 may not be very tolerant.

The "Mell Mess" has laid bare some other serious problems:

First, the governor has estranged himself from his former political allies. During the 2002 campaign, Mell repeatedly promised his fellow Chicago and Cook County suburban committeemen that if Blagojevich won, there would be plenty of state jobs doled out. Normal attrition and the early retirement program have reduced the state work force by almost 10,000; as a result, there have been virtually no patronage jobs made available to local committeemen.

Thus, when Mell accused Blagojevich of "using people," not a single prominent Democrat rose to the governor's defense.

Second, Blagojevich has no political base. He has chosen to govern by headlines and sound bites, and he has not built a political machine. His power comes from his perceived popularity, which is why he reportedly spends almost $10,000 per month on polling and why he makes sure that he disseminates the results.

Blagojevich's chief advisors subscribe to Bill Clinton's theory of triangulation, which means staking out the popular position on a multitude of issues and then gaining political benefit by attacking his opponents. Since the Republicans are a minority in the General Assembly, Blagojevich has made a fellow Democrat, Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, the villain, painting him an opponent of "reform."

Should Blagojevich's popularity begin to dwindle, what meager leverage he has in Springfield will evaporate. Preliminary budget figures indicate that the state will run a $2.1 billion deficit for fiscal year 2006, and the legislature's Democratic leadership will gleefully let Blagojevich make the hard decision to either raise taxes or cut spending.

There is no sense of camaraderie among the legislature's Democrats and the governor, only animosity and disappointment. They can't understand why the first Democratic governor in 26 years can't work with them for common goals. And if Blagojevich begins to look like a one-termer, they will shed no tears.

Third, note the alacrity with which Madigan and Devine, fellow Democrats, launched their investigation. Madigan sought and received a roster of all appointees to state boards and commissions and a list of all employees hired by the Blagojevich Administration. There's the potential for serious headlines, and neither Madigan nor Devine feel in any way protective toward the governor.

In fact, Devine could emerge as a challenger to Blagojevich in the 2006 Democratic primary. Madigan aspires to be governor, but it is unlikely that she would give up her job to run in the 2006 primary, particularly when her father is still speaker. Blagojevich would make that connection -- the alleged concentration of power in one family -- the centerpiece of his campaign.

Could Blagojevich be Illinois' next Dan Walker? It will be remembered that Walker, a Democrat elected in 1972 as an "outsider," also governed by headline and refused to work with the legislature. Even when the Democrats won control of both the Senate and House in the Watergate year of 1974, Walker refused to change his ways, and his villain was Mayor Richard J. Daley.

Daley recruited popular Secretary of State Mike Howlett to run in the 1976 Democratic primary, and Walker got thumped, losing 811,721-696,380, a margin of 115,341 votes. Howlett won Chicago 433,941-229,649, a margin of 202,292 votes. Daley exacted his revenge.

In 1972, running against Paul Simon, Walker won statewide by 735,193-694,900, a margin of 40,293 votes. Daley did not exert himself mightily to rescue Simon, who won Chicago by just 371,078-285,767, a margin of 85,311 votes. By offending Daley, Walker spelled his doom.

It will be remembered that in 2002 Blagojevich, despite the vigorous support of Mell and such allies as Bill Lipinski, finished third in Chicago, with 137,120 votes, to Roland Burris's 202,281 and Paul Vallas's 141,627. Blagojevich's strong Downstate showing enabled him to eke out a primary win of just 25,469 votes, with 36.5 percent of the total cast.

For 2006, there is no reason to expect any white, Daley-allied Chicago Democrat to exert himself for Blagojevich, and it is doubtful that the governor's chief black legislative ally, Senate President Emil Jones, can deliver a large black vote for him -- presuming that he even tries. And without an infusion of state patronage, Downstate county chairmen will be unenergized.

To many observers, the governor's Dan Walker-like unbridled ambition and opportunism are seen as his downfall, and the "Mell Mess" only accelerates the plunge.

And fourth, the Republicans may have found a credible contender for governor in U.S. Representative Ray LaHood, an independent-minded 59-year-old Peorian who has nearly $800,000 in his campaign account. LaHood is a fiscal conservative who has regularly bucked his party's leadership in Washington.

As shown in the 2004 Bush-Kerry contest, "framing" is critical. The president wisely made the election a "choice" between him and Kerry, rather than making the contest a referendum on his tenure. Bush defined Kerry as an unacceptable choice, and he won. Likewise, LaHood must make the 2006 race a choice between Blagojevich, whom he can portray as too ambitious and ethically challenged, and him, the mature and competent political veteran who can govern as a unifier. And as recent Illinois history shows, governors who work with the legislature, like Republicans Jim Thompson and Jim Edgar, are those who get re-elected.

Of course, LaHood must first win the Republican primary, where he will be opposed by one or more social-issue conservatives, such as state Senator Steve Rauschenberger, Jim Oberweis or Pat O'Malley. DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillerstrom also may run, as could former State Board of Education chairman Ron Gidwitz, a liberal. If state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka runs, then LaHood likely will take a pass, since they both appeal to the party's more moderate voters.

Depending on Blagojevich's popularity in March of 2006, Republicans will face a crucial choice: Do they want to nominate somebody who is a "real Republican" or somebody who can win?

It's way too early to prophesize that the "Mell Mess" is the beginning of the end for Blagojevich, but it's not too early to predict that Blagojevich, if he wins another term in 2006, will do so without any help from the state, Cook County and Chicago Democratic establishment.