Bring
on the guillotine. In the 2013-14 election cycle,
heads will roll. Voter anger and disgust with the
existing political ruling class is rising to a
crescendo.
Mark
this well. Over the next 2 years, every
self-serving, decision-avoiding, mealy-mouthed,
do-nothing, ethically challenged, long-entrenched
incumbent is at acute risk. That covers just about
every office holder.
Voters
are approaching the conclusion that their
government, at every level, is dysfunctional. That
their so-called leaders, of both parties, are just
a bunch of opportunistic charlatans. That
politicians don't seriously want to fix problems,
but instead want to exacerbate them so as to
polarize the electorate, demonize their
opposition, motivate their political base, foment
dissension, spike their fund-raising, and get
re-elected. In short, contemporary politicians
don't want to solve problems, they want to exploit
problems.
In
2010 voters reacted negatively toward the Obama
Administration's profligate spending and
borrowing. In 2012 voters reacted negatively
toward the Republicans and their troglodyte
intolerance. In the next 2 years voters will react
negatively toward all incumbents not perceived as
problem solvers. The political carnage will be
epidemic.
There
will be at least four elections in 2013 which will
be harbingers of 2014, just as Massachusetts'
January 2010 U.S. Senate election to fill Ted
Kennedy's vacancy was predictive of the
Republican/Tea Party November 2010 anti-Obama
sweep. They are:
*Massachusetts.
With Senator John Kerry replacing Hillary Clinton
as U.S. secretary of state, there will be a
special election. Interestingly, legislative
Democrats passed the special election law to
prevent then-Governor Mitt Romney from appointing
a Republican should Kerry have been elected
president in 2004. In 2010 Republican Scott Brown,
an obscure state senator, scored a
1,168,107-1,058,682 upset over Democratic Attorney
General Martha Coakley, in a turnout of 2,226,789,
largely because he promised to oppose "Obamacare."
In
November Brown faced Elizabeth Warren for
re-election. Barack Obama beat Romney in the state
1,900,575-1,177,370, and Warren topped Brown
1,678,176-1,449,039, in a turnout of 3,127,215 --
900,426 higher than in January of 2010. Brown
received 500,806 more votes than Romney did, and
Warren got 451,536 fewer votes than Obama but
619,494 more than Coakley.
Clearly,
Brown had crossover appeal, as about 500,000 Obama
voters opted for him. To have won, however, he
needed about 615,000 Obama voters.
To
fill Kerry's vacancy, the Democrats have trotted
out 66-year-old U.S. Representative Ed Markey of
Malden, in north suburban Boston. Markey has been
in Congress since 1976, and he votes the liberal
line on every issue. He and his wife, who is
employed in Washington, D.C., own a home in Chevy
Chase, Md. He is the kind of political and
institutional relic, and insider, that voters now
revile. Markey has been on the public payroll
since 1972, when he was elected state
representative at age 26.
According
to press reports, Brown will run again. By the
time of the mid-summer election, much will have
transpired in Washington. The national debt has
risen from $10.626 trillion when Obama took office
to $16.433 trillion today. The president will seek
a $1 trillion increase in the debt ceiling in
March. The Republicans will oppose it, perhaps
shutting down the federal government. Markey will
vote for it.
Markey
also supported -- as did Brown -- the "fiscal
cliff" compromise, which raises taxes on the
"wealthy" by $62 billion annually. That
is far short of what is needed to balance the
budget.
If
Brown frames the issues right and demonizes Markey
as a coddled and clueless insider, and if turnout
is at 2010, not 2012, levels, Brown can win again,
and that victory will be a template for all 2014
aspirants.
*Illinois
2nd U.S. House District: The "Jesse and Sandi
Show" has finally folded. One has to wonder:
Did they not know that spending campaign
contributions on lifestyle enhancements was a
federal crime? Did they think themselves immune?
Did they seek any legal advice?
Jesse
Jackson Jr. is no longer a congressman, and his
wife Sandi Jackson is no longer the 7th Ward
alderman. Both have resigned, both might be
indicted, and their squalid legacy hangs heavy
over the Feb. 26 congressional primary.
Seventeen
of the 22 candidates in the race are Democrats,
and none has any association with the Jacksons. In
fact, any Jackson taint would be fatal. The top
tier includes state Senators Toi Hutchinson and
Napoleon Harris, former state representative Robin
Kelly, who lost a race for state treasurer in
2010, Alderman Anthony Beale, defeated 2004 U.S.
Senate primary candidate Joyce Washington, and
former U.S. representatives Debbie Halvorson and
Mel Reynolds. All except Halvorson are black.
Beale and Reynolds are the only Chicagoans.
Reynolds served time in prison after he was
convicted of engaging in a sexual relationship
with a 16-year-old campaign volunteer and of bank
fraud.
Designed
by Springfield Democrats as a
"majority-minority" district, it has a
black population of 55 percent. It extends from
Hyde Park in Chicago to the southern border of
Kankakee County, encompassing all the south Cook
County suburbs east of Interstate 57. It has 194
precincts in Chicago, 263 precincts in the
suburbs, 27 precincts in Will County, and 85
precincts in Kankakee County.
Halvorson,
of Crete, was Hutchinson's predecessor as state
senator when she was elected to Congress in 2008
from the old 11th District, which was centered in
Will County. She lost in 2010 to Republican Adam
Kinzinger. The 2011 remap absorbed a third of
Halvorson's district into Jackson's 2nd District.
Halvorson challenged Jackson in the 2012 primary
and got thumped 56,130-22,678, getting 28.8
percent of the vote, in a turnout of 78,808.
Roughly 70 percent of the 2012 primary voters were
black.
The
contest will be determined by race, gender,
geography and the clout of Thornton Township
Committeeman Frank Zuccarelli, who controls 123
precincts in a township with 103,130 voters.
Zuccarelli had been backing state Senator Donne
Trotter until his arrest when he attempted to
board a plane at O'Hare Airport with a handgun in
a carry-on bag. The freshest face in the race is
Harris, a former NFL linebacker who was elected in
November. Beale and Hutchinson are relative
newcomers. The rest are veteran office holders or
rejects.
With
four credible women running, the gender vote will
be diluted. Had just one woman run, she would have
won. So, too, will be the black suburban vote
among Harris, Hutchinson and Kelly, and the
overall black vote among the six black aspirants.
Turnout will be around 40,000. The frontrunner is
Halvorson, whose base is in the 7,000- to
8,000-vote range, almost entirely of white voters.
She got 22.6 percent of the Chicago vote and 25.6
percent of the suburban primary vote in 2012, more
than half of which was an anti-Jackson vote.
With
six credible black candidates fragmenting the
30,000-plus black base, and with another 10 minor
candidates drawing 100 to 500 votes apiece, it's
hard to envision a Halvorson loss. Her win would
be a racial win, but if either Harris or
Hutchinson surge and triumph, it would be proof
positive that even pro-Obama black voters are
weary of the same old same old. My prediction: 2nd
District voters will find and elect the least
conventional, least connected and least tainted
candidate.
*Cicero:
Jokes abound about the west suburban town, which
is more than 85 percent Hispanic. That Cicero's
motto is "grab all you can," that
Cicero's seal is a greased palm, that clownish
Town President Larry Dominick is another Kim
Jong-il. Following in the footsteps of the
infamous Betty Loren-Maltese, who spent time in
federal prison, some 20 of Dominick's extended
family are on the payroll. Dominick is seeking his
third term.
Cicero's
population is 83,891. Fat employee salaries,
lifetime benefits, generous perks, rampant
nepotism and hefty outside legal and public
relations vendor contracts are epidemic. P.T.
Barnum once proclaimed that "there's a sucker
born every minute." Most of them, it seems,
now live in Cicero and tolerate this sham.
In
2009 Dominick was re-elected 6,608-3,628. His
methodology is elemental, reminiscent of the
bygone days of the Chicago machine: put Hispanics
on the payroll, have them work precincts and
promise voters whatever is necessary, deliver
votes, and stay on the gravy train. Juan Ochoa,
the former executive officer of the Metropolitan
Pier and Exposition Authority, which runs
McCormick Place, is running as a
"reformer." If he wins, it will prove
that a voters' throw-off-the-yoke mentality is
mushrooming.
Niles:
Tranquil and obscure -- that described this north
suburban town of 29,803, with a large Polish
ethnic population, but disgraced former Mayor Nick
Blase put it on the map in 2009 when he pleaded
guilty to mail and tax fraud. The Blase machine
had controlled Niles since 1961. His ally, Trustee
Bob Callero, was elected mayor in 2009 with 50.1
percent of the vote.
This
year, with Blase a distant memory, the insiders
are hoping for voter amnesia. Trustee Andy
Przybylo, a cog in the Blase machine who has
served for 24 years, is endorsed by Callero. Chris
Hanusiak, who got 22.2 percent of the vote against
Callero in 2009 and who was elected trustee in
2011, is running on a slate with two current
trustees, making him a cog in the "Trustees
machine." If voters want a change, they'll
need a magnifying glass. The lesson: When in
trouble, hope voters are too stupid to remember.